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[Garfield]

Okay, this is the "Holy Grail" subject again. 

I don't want to debate whether the "HG" exist or not, it would be the same as arguing over "chicken or egg".

Okay so I've stated in the past that "HG" mostly around the bs method. But as we aware there are two main yields, bs and mm. Could it be the "HG" exist in the mm yield? Beside D'Ale, Marty, Star, gr8 and many...would there be something new?

Or like the saying that "any bs method will fail in the long run", we also agree that "any mm method ALSO will fail in the long run"?

And how to measure (if there is one) this "HG"mm's performance? What is the standard? eg How many LIAR it could last, how many re-coup percentage it could give, or what?

Maybe we are looking in the wrong place? 

Finger crossed.

[Albalaha]

HG could be a wrong term but if it means a permanent solution to all sorts of gambling situations, i.e. always finishing positive only, I do not think it is even possible.
My own thoughts about HG:
1. An HG is a methodology that doesn't rely on BS automatically getting and edge as it doesn't exist.
2. Similarly, if there can not be any proven BS that has an in built edge, it cannot be flat bet
3. It should be able to coup even the worst of the worst or as people say a run from hell like 25 wins of an EC in 100 spins
4. Even if it finishes negative at a point of time, it should be likely to recoup further with a pre defined strategy.

       Question is, Does  any HG already exist? I say, Yes it does. I did over 10 millions spins to prove this. http://betselection.cc/albalaha's-exclusive/holy-grail-randomness-can-be-beaten-even-in-the-longest-run/
It was not based upon any so-called Advantage play. Purely mathematical and mechanical approach. Only downside was it could have been used with a bot running 24x7 and very slow wins.

If anybody creates an HG, will he bankrupt a casino? No, as a real HG will earn very slow, risking least, winning bit by bit. That too, after lots of churning.
HG lies in understanding the randomness and its virtual limits. Unless a methodology can not sustain the worst possible phases, it is not an HG but Bulls**t.

[alrelax]

The absolute Holy Grail, honestly---in my blog page here, posted this morning!   

[alrelax]

4. Even if it finishes negative at a point of time, it should be likely to recoup further with a pre defined strategy.

Really, whatever 'spin master brew haha' you want to label your stats and research with, it is not exclusive to any one long term method as baccarat will always have it's times that it is banker dominant and player dominant. 

If a player had deep, really deep pockets, he could always wager on one side and would eventually prevail back to whole or up if the person lost, once that side made its recovery which it eventually will.  Like I said, you have to play long enough.  Which virtually all of us would be precluded from doing, but for sake of argument, what you cited in #4 is really the same thing. 

A player can recover himself if he lost, say wagering 2 shoes on Banker only because it ended up with 10-15 greater Players total or each shoe, whatever.  That same player just has to gamble long enough, so he is present wagering so when the Banker wins with the greater amount of equal hands, he will prevail. 

On a game that is truly random with no optional draws or ways to change a pre-set random set of outcomes waiting to develop, it is only a matter of time before it evens out, surpasses and as well, becomes deficient for either side.

[ezmark]

gentleman greetings...

in my opinion of a Holy Grail To be to be useful It should have two qualities
-  A structured bet selection
-  A structured money management
with these two elements skill is not a requirement
I would like to present the riddle of the Holy Grill

The Holy Grail will be found in the selection of an event, range , group, or set of events, these events
Should or must occur more often, in total over time,  than the sum losses of the event not occuring within the expected  range or expected results

[AsymBacGuy]

Good reply ezmark.

Anyway I add my thoughts...

As long as we don't have a mathematical edge, HG simply doesn't exist.
Nonetheless HG exists on many side bets by 1 trillion certainty.

Not wanting to counting cards, our only option will be trying to take advantage of some statistical features.

By any means baccarat statistical features aren't influenced by choices dictated by human mind.

Outcomes cannot care less if one, two or more players are actually losing or winning or whether we think Player side will be more likely on this shoe because the previous hands were P dominated or vice versa in a RTM sense.

Regarding BP hands, the only way to say "I discovered the HG!" is an empirical method capable to bet Banker only on the spots where the AS/S hands ratio will be increased toward the left. Even finding a method capable to wager Player side only on symmetrical hands will get a zero negative edge with the house.
It isn't an easy task, it takes a lot of time to do that with no guarantees to succeed (no mathematical edge, no party!).

Back to the statistical world more widely considered.

It's a proven fact that statistics cannot act other than following mathematical rules and we know that this last force at baccarat will unbalance the outcomes or, if you prefer, tend to balance certain events more rapidly than at what happens at a perfect 50/50 independent game.

as. 







 

 







   




   

[ezmark]

Greetings.

Soxfan said it very simiply and precisely In another thread When commenting on a guy's Dice theory . I believe it holds true for bac. in summary said
.. the mathematical expectations will occur with a known frequency and a progression can be developed around this frequency... so if the known frequency of failure is greater than 8 on average... the progression can be developed that will recover failure in 8 tries or less on average in the long term should be a successful progression...

[ezmark]

Greeting
I will expand my response additionally with an example
...in addition this is not a precise example.. only one to help clarify..
this example is not based on true finding..
... the begins with a study in frequency
....the assumption to prove as follows....
....a run of greater than 4 iar through 9 iar will happen once in 8 showing of a 4 iar....
...so a 5 step progression will fail once in 8 attempts...
....so a progression based on the sum of (for all you stat guys) losses divided by 7 will
       Produce a profit on the long term in theory
....so for this to fail there will be an error in frequency calculation

[alrelax]

Greeting
I will expand my response additionally with an example
...in addition this is not a precise example.. only one to help clarify..
this example is not based on true finding..
... the begins with a study in frequency
....the assumption to prove as follows....
....a run of greater than 4 iar through 9 iar will happen once in 8 showing of a 4 iar....
...so a 5 step progression will fail once in 8 attempts...
....so a progression based on the sum of (for all you stat guys) losses divided by 7 will
       Produce a profit on the long term in theory

My 2 cents in response:

One, other players can and will have game changing thoughts on your play that can and will effect the way you wager in a live casino.
Two, you constantly get pressure to stay and win more or keep buying in if losing becasue of all those chips in the dealer's rack there for the taking.
Three, you simply forget and lose your clear trend of thinking for excitement or hyper reasons due to the action.
Four, just say the stats are gospel and on spot 100%.  Nothing against you guys here but honestly most casino players and even the regular and HL Room ones, do not know diddly-squat about casino/gaming statistics.  Sad but true!!!  So say for sake of arguement, that the 1 in 8 times for the 4IAR to 8IAR only happens for 1 time in 8, etc.  Say that was proven rock solid in doing 2 million shoes say 10 times by the best computer person in stats in the world.  So yes that is gospel for sake of this point i am trying to make. There was times in those stats where say they had sections of 4IAR continuing for runs more times than the 1 in 8 times where it did cut to the opposite side. And, there you are doing what was accomplished in those 2 million shoes and in the 3 or 5 shoes you are now playing in the local casino with your real money, almost everytime when it gets to 4IAR is does not cut.  Period.  Or, you wager the opposite way after a while, then it does cut everytime.  Period.
Five, your phone keeps going off for unrelated reasons and you cannot even if you wanted to pay attention, cannot, your brain does not have enough compartments to function this way, sorry. 
Six, Oh excuse me, you are different and none of this applies to you because you are not applicable to anything i mentioned here.  Forget you read it.

[Garfield]

Well I have some thought about the "HG".

I now think that "HG" COULD be exist, but very subjective. All the time players may think that "HG" is one particular method (inc BS and MM) that could work in any given shoes, any given time, everywhere around the globe.

But, I've seen in the same table, some people win and some lose. The exact same output. Well, if a "HG" true exist, then every players in the world would be betting in the same manner, no matter where you play.

Could it be like that?

I prefer to state that everyone "winning method" (I prefer to call it that way than HG) is different, one from another. It is very subjective, that it is hard to define it. It is like one's favorite food or meal. Some may like fried rice, but other prefer hamburger. Yes we may measure what food is the best between two (calories,vitamins etc), but they still exist until now.

I think we better find what is the best "winning method" for each of us. Because everyone face different conditions. I want to quote from the famous 21Aces "If you study your play, you will know how strong your play is. Bet accordingly". Damned I have to agree 100% with this.

I, DO believe that THERE ARE players who win consistently (despite the amount of money and time). And I try to improve myself to become one. Remember, you don't need "in the long run" to be a winner, you only need "short run" (the next 20-30 years maybe?).