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[alrelax]

The purpose here is to bring forward the real 'meat' of playing baccarat.  After all, that is why we are here right?

Below I will post several pictures of a B&M bac score board from the other night.  I will state I am not mad, I am not angry, just a but embarrassed.  I won and won nicely in fact, but this was a killer shoe against the casino with huge player advantages. 

A great shoe to bring forth on the forum and talk about.  Some great examples of what happens, not in rarity by any means, usually only this 'player advantaged' in Sections, but this shoe has so many player advantaged give me's throughout the entire shoe.

Okay, some facts about the shoe.

*  The last 20 hands were one or two bankers, one or two players, and one time there were four bankers in a row. There was another Fortune 7 about hand 55 as well.

*  Low '0-1-2-3' ties as I have wrote about so much, in the first 45 hands!

*  There was a total of 6 Fortune 7s.  Hands 4-13-17-28-35 and one in the 60's.

*  Only two players maximum the whole shoe. I want to repeat that, the entire shoe had only two players maximum.

*  The group of 5 natural players, hands 53-59 was actually a group of 7, because there were 2 additional player naturals at hands 61 and 62.

*  One 3 card banker 9-player 0 as shown in the picture.  There were also lots of 3 card banker 8s-player 0s, at least 10 of them.

*  Maximum of 3 repeating sideways for both the bankers and the players throughout on the Bead Plate.

[KungFuBac]

Thx alrelax for taking the time to post (with all the details).
 
I "think" I would have done well though one never knows as we are typically near perfect when monday-morning quarterbacking a completed shoe (at least I seem to do better on Monday morning) .

When looking at the last tote pic I believe I would have indeed caught all the P2iar turns except the first one. I likely would not have caught many of the B2iar turns as that first 3+ on B would have likely deterred my effort to bet b2 turning, at least for awhile.

Plus I like to look at it from a (good,better,best) event strength. In this case the #1 strongest event was IMO the P2 turning as that event was 100% hit rate from the beginning. So Im guessing I would have just stayed with that event only and caught (n-1) of that event.

However, by focusing on my pressed-up wager and that one event I would have likely missed (or purposefully skipped) most of the other very good events such as the B2 turning/ B run(or if i did get on other events I would not have collected "or pressed" as typical).

re: B run--Other than the clumping of 2s and low ties I didn't see anything that would have insinuated a potential B run was imminent just before it showed. In fact I would have likely failed in my attempt as I would have wagered for that B-Run b2 to turn. Maybe some of you would have picked up on something.

re:" Maximum of 3 repeating sideways for both the bankers and the players throughout on the Bead Plate."

     Personally reading the bead plate is an area I would like to improve. Sometimes I may spot a pattern (especially at Jct where vert/horiz converge and there is a consensus), and I will have some success. I haven't tested this type of guessing so may or may not have any validity.

So I welcome any addendum thoughts from other boarad members on reading bead plate. I know alrelax /asymbacguy have elaborated on the bead plate. Maybe others can chime in too.


Continued Success,

[alrelax]

As many times as something works in baccarat, likewise the times it does not will equal or outnumber the times it does.

But, do not fall prey to that! You must pump it up with a positive progression if you are playing that way. Meaning you're not in it for one, two or three units and then leaving. I mean you are risking your buy-in, in order to make a substantial amount of profit.

Confusion sets in a high amount of times, be careful. Because confusion will change your thought process, your energy level and your wagering judgments.  Confusion sets in because you lost Wagers (no matter if you are up from your buy-in amount or not) and you're blaming yourself or the others around you for clouding your judgment.

With that said, influence, balance-meant beliefs and of course desires, are all heavy factors always influencing most of us all the time, IMO.

Yes, we all realize after.  Usually, the highest majority of the times, not clear at the instant time we are playing.  Here are my thoughts and how I was wagering.

REMEMBER THERE ARE ABOUT 15 ADDITIONAL HANDS THAT ARE NOT SHOWN.

Wagered heavy on almost all cuts to bankers after the second players came about.

Almost everyone at the table (and it was a full table plus's lots of people back betting) had large/larger wagers than mine on the opposite side a lot of the times.  Seeing that played with my mind, although not totally altering my decision making, but it did cause me to cut down the amount of many of my wagers.  And I was winning far greater hands than I was losing. 

I wagered for the first two players second line wins and I was successful.  Because of those I continued with second line players wagers and lost the next two.  Because of my loss with the third and fourth ones, I stopped my second line players wagering and that is exactly why I mentioned things not being clear at the time, etc. 

Another point/fact I have preached, that I have violated was not playing what was being presented.  I was getting side tracked to wager on what I desired.

I saw the 5 players naturals, and won all the cuts after those to the bankers with heavy wagers. 

When the streak of bankers came along I noticed the back-to-back double banker naturals.  I stuck with the bankers, pumped it up, while everyone except one other person was heavy on the players. 

I also identified that the ties were cutting to the opposite and followed that presentment.  The tie in the streak of bankers, I did not pay attention to.  Because if I am on a repeating streak of anything, I stick with it and only lose the last wager when it falls off.

I also identified that the Bead Plate was not hitting greater than 3, read from left to right, of any repeating players or bankers.  I was following that presentment as well.

Ways I attempt to combat things I do wrong:

Really cut everything thing out except the pure game itself and wagering. 

Be fresh but hold experience.

Forget losing and winning shoes as they are powerful on my mind frame and the one I am playing cannot and will not replicate those. 

Stop saying, "It can't do that or it won't do that".

Like Andy Reid said, the coach for the Kansas City Chiefs. "There are some good things we have taken out of this game as tough as it is. How you step up and compete, we had too many mistakes when it was all said and done, it is good to learn from them and they can benefit you down the road if you handle it right".

And I know 100% I will. I talked in length to two members of this forum as well as other people and I expressed what I did, what happened and how I viewed what I did at the time I was playing. Again, I made good money on the shoe, but I should have made great money on it and I failed to do it because of some really simple rules I broke and did not adhere to.

[AsymBacGuy]

I tried to quote some passages of yours but since I agree with everything you sayed here I just make brief comments.

1) Betting Banker after a P double is going to get more wins than losses (obviously we'll lose money for the vig).
Naturally we won't chase P doubles if the actual shoe is full of P 3+s streaks.
The same but it's a more difficult job about doubles coming out isolated (P3+-P2-P3+...etc)

Good news is that shoes particularly rich of consecutive P doubles (no 3+s streaks for long) are quite frequent.

2) Camaraderie sometimes helps (especially when we seem to not catch a single winning hand and others are stacking the chips) but the amount of the other players bets shouldn't interest us.

3) Confusion is a corollary of the 'overthinking effect'. That's why I advocate a strong preordered plan that must be adjusted to the actual shoe results (especially when strongly deviating from the 'average' shoe).

'To adjust' more often than not means no betting and not starting to wager opposite sides.

4) Any shoe is a new shoe. Period.
Even a wonderful EV+ could find long negative shoe per shoe successions.
I remember the story of a poker player losing 9 all-ins in a row with pocket Aces vs an inferior pair (any time he was 4.2:1 advantaged to win).

If slot jackpots are hit, so 'counter' jackpots will show up with more easiness.
On the other end, wonderful back to back to back....shoes exist and we must profit from them without any fear.

as.

[KungFuBac]

Thx alrelax for breaking down how u wagered/thought process up above in post #2 12/5/22.

"...
Ways I attempt to combat things I do wrong:

Really cut everything thing out except the pure game itself and wagering.

Be fresh but hold experience.

Forget losing and winning shoes as they are powerful on my mind frame and the one I am playing cannot and will not replicate those.

Stop saying, "It can't do that or it won't do that".
..."

On a similar note, something I do and though a very simple procedure it seems to help and assists with clearing the mind.
When Im losing and have guessed incorrectly several times in a row or hitting at about 40% rate. I like to skip a few hands by standing up and walking behind my chair and standing for a few minutes. It helps to view the tote board from a further distance as one will sometimes see additional patterns and pick up on something due to the different view.

Kinda like when one is in the woods and all we can see are trees from a horizontal viewpoint. If one could look down (vertically) into the forest from above (a plane, or the mountain top, or top of the tallest tree), sometimes the trees look totally different. The trees don't change but our perception does.

Good post,