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[alrelax]

I Want to Play---I Want to Continue Winning

H-Money and I went to the casino last night.  We planned all week to stay for a few shoes and get a bite to eat, hopefully win and take turns driving home.  Basically, a night out.

We got to the casino and went inside, kind of dead and only 2 people playing at the bac table.   Must be a late-night crowd heading in later, because for a Saturday night, kind of strange.  Anyway, the current shoe was ending and we waited until the new shoe was shuffled and ready.

The other two people playing we knew from past experience.  One usually does a pounce-on-it and leaves if he won and the other, is a grind, minimum wagering person all the time and if he wins a hand, he will parlay the next one and then pull down.

Shoe starts.  Banker-Player-Player-Banker.  All four hands were Bad Beat (one-point value won by and one-point value lost by) each side.  The three of us, myself-H Money and the guy that pounces-on-it, looks at each other and we all say, Chop-Chop. The other guy just looks, smokes and keeps starring at the score board.  He is constantly the type of player that will wager against whatever the shoe is presenting.  Believing in the CUT to be presented next, meaning?the hand that did not happen or against any and all trends and patterns.  If it is repeating, he will wager for the streak to stop, if it is chopping, he will wager for the repeat, if it is doubles, he will wager for the third one to continue, etc., etc.

So, it was B-PP-B then a P came out.  With that presentment, the three of us used a positive progression, parlay, for the next 2 hands.  We won the 6th hand of Banker and the 7th hand of Player. 

The 3 of us used the double positive progression as our wager from then on out. The shoe produced another 6 chops.

It looked like this:  B-PP-B-P-B-P-B-P-B-P-B-P.  The 14th hand was another chop back to Banker.  Then a 2nd Banker, then a 3rd, Banker and 4th Banker came out making 4 Bankers in a row.  We stopped on the 3rd Banker, losing the last 2 wagers.  The other guy colors up to $1,800.00, keeping his buy in chips and about $400-$500 of chips also.  Myself and H-Money colored up and we all left and went to the cashier to cash out.

H-money and I went to get something to eat at the bar and all the way there, H-Money is only saying, that he wanted to go back and continue winning.  I tried to tell him, take the money and leave.  Forget the table, it will not last, etc., etc.  Let us eat, talk and leave.  Go see a movie, go shopping, but lets leave the casino.

H-Money will not listen.  He tells me he knows it is his time and he can continue to win.  He is dead set to continue playing and marches right back to the baccarat room.  The one guy is still there with the grind, winning a couple and losing a few.  Another person sits down and H-Money buys in with his original buy in and half of his winnings he just cashed out.  He begins playing, I refuse to.

H-Money repeatedly wagers for the CHOP, then when it repeats, he wagers for the STREAKS, then the shoe presents 1s and 3s and a few DOUBLES.  H-Money attempts to follow it all.  I try to slow him down, but he is on a mini tilt and is hell bent to win more money and is not paying attention at all.  He has it in his head that he can continue to win like he did in the first part of the shoe.  By the end of the shoe he losses almost all the money he won and has his buy in still and maybe a few hundred dollars of win money left.  I plead with him to stop.  He is determined the next shoe will be something he can follow and recoup all his win money once again and then promises to leave.

Next shoe comes around and he starts it off with the buy in he still has from his second buy in which is the same amount of money as his first.  All of his win money is now gone.  He plays about 20 hands or so out of 50 and losses everything he had.  We leave and he is blaming me for not playing the second time around, for not helping him, for pressuring him to leave and whatever else he can dream up.  All the way home he is blaming me.

I just know when it comes perfect and people can capitalize on it, the way we did, it is time to call it a session, leave and forget about it.  It all goes right back to perception and our thoughts.  I have written about these on the board here.  Perception and thoughts impact our own reality.  Period.

When I got home last night I looked up, Observational Error.  What a match!  Perfect.  Goes with what happened and well as the game of Baccarat.

"Observational error (or measurement error) is the difference between a measured value of a quantity and its true value  In statistics, an error is not a "mistake". Variability is an inherent part of the results of measurements and of the measurement process.

Measurement errors can be divided into two components: random error and systematic error.

Random errors are errors in measurement that lead to measurable values being inconsistent when repeated measurements of a constant attribute or quantity are taken. Systematic errors are errors that are not determined by chance but are introduced by an inaccuracy (involving either the observation or measurement process) inherent to the system.  Systematic error may also refer to an error with a non-zero mean, the effect of which is not reduced when observations are averaged."

And that led me to, Similarity Heuristic.  Another match!  Goes right along with everything Baccarat is about or should I say, everything that is presented at the tables.

"The similarity heuristic is a psychological heuristic pertaining to how people make judgments based on similarity. More specifically, the similarity heuristic is used to account for how people make judgments based on the similarity between current situations and other situations or prototypes of those situations.

At its most basic level, the similarity heuristic is an adaptive strategy. The goal of the similarity heuristic is maximizing productivity through favorable experience while not repeating unfavorable experiences. Decisions based on how favorable or unfavorable the present seems are based on how similar the past was to the current situation."

H-Money just does not listen the majority of the times.  Tomorrow or the next day he will call me up and say, sorry man--next time I will listen, I should have known better.  Or something similar to that, same as in the past.

Trying to replicate wins, use win money to build bankrolls into huge volume, count on past wins to replicate themselves and wager in the same manner that you previously won with, etc., etc., will only lead you to losing far in excess of what you will win at. Baccarat presents numerous advantages to the people playing it, if you can be extremely clear minded, completely neutral and able to avoid the countless false-positives that continually present themselves at the bac table.