08 First Wager of a New Shoe

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Offline Baccnine

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First Wager of a New Shoe
« on: June 26, 2019, 12:03:46 am »
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  • As an advantage craps player I won't toss out my 1st large bet on myself or another controlled shooter until he (me) throws at least 3 solid box numbers. He needs to show me he's somewhat dialed-in.

    Being new to baccarat I see some players not betting early in a shoe. Appears they are waiting for some sort of pattern to develop and then take advantage of it. Makes great sense to me.

    Also, now that I've got a solid month of playing time I've really cut back the number of average wagers I make in an entire shoe. I'm now looking for the chop/chop, doubles or beginning stages (hopefully) of a P or B run before I place my bets.

    Asking for input from members, when do you place your 1st wager in a shoe and what would prompt it? Do you start with the very 1st hand? I'm certain it varies, but attempting to get a good feel on an entry point...?

    AJ





    Offline Lungyeh

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    Re: First Wager of a New Shoe
    « Reply #1 on: June 26, 2019, 02:23:19 am »
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  • Welcome baccnine. There are 2 stuff tables in Marina Bay Sands and for the life of me, I cannot understand the game. We use to say, its because its American! Just joking. Welcome to the forum

    You missed the action of the past 18 months or so where there were very passionate presentations of several different approaches to the game. All swear by it. My conclusion is that there are many ways to skin the cat. Find a methodology that suits your personality.

    I am a trend player. But I remember saying here that if there are ?dragon? runs of Banker or Players I will take the casino to the cleaners. Just an English expression. Somebody here replied and quite rightly it applies to many, ?And the casino will take you to the morgue!? 😂🤣

    Trend, anti trend, mathematicians, grinders. By whatever name they be called, you will find your soulmate here.

    Offline Lungyeh

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    Re: First Wager of a New Shoe
    « Reply #2 on: June 26, 2019, 02:25:25 am »
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  • 2 stuff tables

    Offline Lungyeh

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    Re: First Wager of a New Shoe
    « Reply #3 on: June 26, 2019, 02:27:44 am »
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  • Is there an auto correct function at work? stuff

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: First Wager of a New Shoe
    « Reply #4 on: June 26, 2019, 08:33:50 am »
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  • A shoe a couple of hours ago, 11 and 11, we hit 19 wins by following, 3 of us, the rest played for the cut as they believed every hand would cut to the opposite side, LOL.  Gotta love the reasoning these days!

    Also the Banker streak had 2 Fortune 7 in it and another 2 not long after.  5 Total in the shoe.

    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 29,555 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
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    Offline alrelax

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    Re: First Wager of a New Shoe
    « Reply #5 on: June 26, 2019, 05:29:06 pm »
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  • "Being new to baccarat I see some players not betting early in a shoe. Appears they are waiting for some sort of pattern to develop and then take advantage of it. Makes great sense to me."  Be careful, leads to false positives!

    Without perfect knowledge, you cannot and do not know what is within the shoe, the section, after the turning point, etc., etc., and so on.  None of us will ever have perfect knowledge of baccarat.  Sorry, I know that is not what many want to hear, but that is reality, stone cold and real-life baccarat reality.

    We only know what has been exposed and presented within a shoe when we are playing.  Reality is that we can never know absolutely what will come out.  Through whatever means, Sections and Turning Points, an occasional hand or two through process and elimination, etc., etc.  We fool ourselves into a wager, some of us with large amounts of money and others with trivial amounts of money.  But the psychological process of wagering in this game of baccarat is hugely affected by numerous items as I have written about.  Do not forget that or fail to recognize just that.

    It has been attempted countless times to match unknown and waiting to occur situations/presentments with a generated theory based on technology opinionated and concluded by the author presenting it as, 'Perfect Knowledge', it is not.  It is a rouse, it is an opinion, it is an educated guess, it is anything, but an advantaged piece of knowledge so purported to be as such.  And that is where so many get confused as to what is what with this game of baccarat, decision making, strategy and wagering.

    Look at it as a path or a hallway.  It must end, but what are the twists and the turns along the way.  That is why I began to break everything down into Sections & Turning Points, just makes things more manageable and acceptable, because before you complete a long path you must take the short journey along the way within that long run, no?  Hence, my Sections & Turning points.

    Stop the reactions, because they will provide you with tons of false positives.  Those false positives are influential, realize that!  Very much so!

    There are usually counter reactions to the presentments as they occur, most do not even realize it.  Pay more attention and attempt to look in from the outside, rather than submersing yourself in the game the way almost all do.  Like walking down, a hallway, when no one is walking with you and seven abreast walking right at you.  Your very first reaction(s) are, your pace changes, you look at which way you will start to divert your path and are they aggressive or just plain friendly and unintelligent?  You ask and answer many questions subconsciously and react as well, again subconsciously.  The same at the game of baccarat, learn it and realize what you do without even rationalizing it out and deciding upon it with knowledge, opinion and conclusion.

    When it is in order, versus out of order, your process of realization is enhanced.  But few of us stay ultra-conscious when we are playing baccarat, especially in a live casino, with the absolute neutral state of mind at the table.  You may say you do, but you do not.  Visual impact is very very overwhelming. 

    A standard method developed is not wise to follow, because the results yet to occur have no path to follow.  Correct?  The whole basis of every ones reasoning's are, the sheer number of models tested.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 29,555 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Baccnine

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    Re: First Wager of a New Shoe
    « Reply #6 on: June 27, 2019, 12:13:46 am »
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  • Alrelax

    Looking at your board......my entry point into that shoe would have been a Banker bet after the forth hand. I would be hoping for a run to develop. P was the winner, I would have lost my initial bet.

    My second bet would have been (after the 2 doubles) a Banker bet on the seventh hand hoping for another double......I would of won that bet. Next bet would be another B (parlay) looking to complete that double...?.That would be my thought process for entry into that shoe.

    Thoughts??

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: First Wager of a New Shoe
    « Reply #7 on: June 27, 2019, 09:42:52 pm »
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  • A standard method developed is not wise to follow, because the results yet to occur have no path to follow.  Correct?  The whole basis of every ones reasoning's are, the sheer number of models tested.

    Of course, but I think that most of our possible advantage comes from not betting the vast majority of all hands dealt as certain situations, even at different degrees, must show up sooner or later. Sometimes some shoes provide no enough room such situations will show up, thus, IMO, we better get rid of them.

    as.   
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline Baccnine

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    Re: First Wager of a New Shoe
    « Reply #8 on: June 28, 2019, 11:24:10 pm »
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  • as

    A standard method or system is not for me.....I'm following patterns to capitalize "in the moment".

    Yesterday I took a trip to AC. Most of my time was on the craps table, but I did play 2 shoes of EZ. First shoe was not a money maker for me lots of 2's, 3's and one 5 banker. Only one panda and one dragon.

    Next shoe was strong. A 12 banker run and a 9 player run. Also every one of the naturals cut. Me and the lady next to me were all over those in a big way. Icing was 5 pandas and 4 dragons.

    As expected I played many more hands in the second shoe due to the runs and also wanted to have bets out (some at table min) due to the high number of panda's and dragons showing.

    Aj

    Offline audionut

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    Re: First Wager of a New Shoe
    « Reply #9 on: July 03, 2019, 03:52:15 pm »
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  • So what's your CRAPS system?? I'll play the don't for $15 with $4 on any 7 on the come out as well as $1 on yo 11... at least I can play with an advantage this way (not saying it wins all the time lol)

    Offline Baccnine

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    Re: First Wager of a New Shoe
    « Reply #10 on: July 04, 2019, 05:37:09 pm »
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  • No system.

    It all comes down to tossing box numbers.....and plenty of them. Especially repeating numbers.

    Betting.....Usually I start out with $60 ea on the six and eight. Two hits then regress to $66 inside or $66 even numbers and press up from there.

    I keep it real simple.