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[soxfan]

The mathite all tell  us that without an "edge" we will all fall because of the house edge in the "long run" But, they never provide an answer as to how many shoe, or decision at the baccarats constitute a long run. Heck, I got the gavel on the wizard forum for having the temerity to pose that question. Now, that seth cat on his blog says coupla method survive for what would be 30-40 year of fulltime play. So, I ask, what constitute the long run, and if we ain't gonna buck up against it then why worry about it, hey hey.

[tdx]

'In the long run, we are all dead"

John Maynard Keynes

[james]

In macrogambling, the long run is the period when the loss adjusts fully to the house edge in contrast to the short run when the loss does not reflect the house edge. In other words, in the long run death and house edge are inevitable.

[NathanDetroit]

The mathboyzz love that  ptoverbial expression   the long run.  Sharp  cats stay away from the long run. They gather their 10 % profit and run !

[Mike]

The long run is when the positive variance (luck) runs out and the house edge takes over. How long it is depends on the bet. Short odds will approach it sooner than long odds.

As the number of rounds increases, eventually, the expected loss will exceed the standard deviation, many times over. From the formula, we can see the standard deviation is proportional to the square root of the number of rounds played, while the expected loss is proportional to the number of rounds played. As the number of rounds increases, the expected loss increases at a much faster rate. This is why it is practically impossible for a gambler to win in the long term (if they don't have an edge). It is the high ratio of short-term standard deviation to expected loss that fools gamblers into thinking that they can win.

[soxfan]

I sometime see where the mathite  talk about the long run being millions of decision. And years back on another forum a cat offered a reward of 20 thousands euro for any method that show positive result after one billion simulated baccarats shoes. But, in a years worth of fulltime play I only buck up against 44 thousand decision so I ain't gonna live near long enough to see millions of decision, hey hey.

[AsymBacGuy]

And years back on another forum a cat offered a reward of 20 thousands euro for any method that show positive result after one billion simulated baccarats shoes.

Give me the link. I'll give you a cut of the winning reward 

as.

[soxfan]

Give me the link. I'll give you a cut of the winning reward 

as.

I wait until I read yer book, first, hey hey.

[AsymBacGuy]

I wait until I read yer book, first, hey hey.

Good point 

as.

[WorldBaccaratKing]

I wait until I read yer book, first, hey hey.

just don't hold your breath....guy talks in riddles

[soxfan]

just don't hold your breath....guy talks in riddles

I always give a cat a benefit of the doubts, so I'll wait until I see his book, hey hey.

[WorldBaccaratKing]

I always give a cat a benefit of the doubts, so I'll wait until I see his book, hey hey.

No offense, we will both be in the ground by the time that comes out....

[ezmark]

Question.
In the long run , in this example,  1's are 50 %   and 2's are 27 % of total of shoes' results, would it be to my favor, in the long run,  to bet against it going three in a row for a 2% profit ?   

[soxfan]

Question.
In the long run , in this example,  1's are 50 %   and 2's are 27 % of total of shoes' results, would it be to my favor, in the long run,  to bet against it going three in a row for a 2% profit ?

Years ago, a shrewd old cat told me that the anti-streak style is the only purely mechanical style that can win regular, long terms, hey hey.