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[gr8player]

Long before I'd even heard of Baccarat, I was a fan of horse racing.  Being born and raised in New York, I've always had relatively easy access to our local Aqueduct and Belmont racetracks.  Right now, and throughout the summer, the races are held in upstate historic Saratoga; by far and away the most popular, both in fans and in betting dollars, in the state (if not the country).

Now, here's the thing about Saratoga:

It's vast popularity and betting creates the need for longer-than-usual spaces between the races.  Where Aqueduct and Belmont might run within 20 or 22 minutes, Saratoga runs races spaced almost 1/2 hour apart.  So during the Saratoga meet I sit on my deck, with my lap-top, and I read either the newspaper or a book, as I await the next race.  (I don't need to handicap, because I prefer to do that in the morning; that way the current odds can never influence my opinion.)  I'm not in love with such a long wait between the races, but such is life for the Saratoga bettor.  And so I've learned to live with it.

Now the point of this post:

IF one can wait almost 30 minutes between races at the racetrack, WHY CAN'T one wait between bets at the Baccarat table?  What stops us from using this "racetrack analogy" to our advantage at the Baccarat table.....where we learn to sit and wait?

Far be it for me to answer for any of you, but I must confess: it's helped me in my play tremendously.  And I'll explain how:

First and foremost, the patience.  Look, at Baccarat, most times, I needn't wait 30 minutes between bets, so let me get that out of the way from the outset.  But, that said, I DO, in fact, WAIT.  I await triggers and I await "textures".  (Let me define "textures":  For example, if I see a shoe with an inordinate amount of runs at the outset, I'm honing in on betting opposites as soon as they begin to show.  I call that formation a "texture", where the shoe, in this example, is "leaning toward choppiness".)

The next advantage of the "wait" is the most important:  virtual losses.  Please never underestimate the importance of virtual losses in your play.  These are losses to your preferred style of play that, because of the "wait", because of your patience, COST YOU NOT ONE DIME.  Please do not underestimate the value in that style of play.  I, for one, with all of my experience at this game, COULD NOT SURVIVE IT WITHOUT "VIRTUAL LOSSES".

So what does this "wait" do for you?  You learn patience and you learn discipline.  And it saves you MONEY.  Just recently (this week's trip), the player to my left turned to me in-between shoes and commented to me about my patience. (Actually, he also wanted me to cut the cards for the new shoe, because, as he also said to me: "you're very lucky"....two things I'll say about that....1.) I wouldn't cut the cards because I had no intention of playing that shoe...my win goal was already procured; and 2.) it ain't luck; it's all a part of my planned play.  Luck comes to those prepared to accept it.)

So this Saratoga meet, with it's long pause between races, actually is a good lesson for the serious player.  You learn to relax, you learn to step back, you learn to accept any single win and/or any single loss WITHOUT the urge to "tilt it up" at the quickest moment possible; and, ultimately, all of these learned things are major pluses for anyone's game.  In a nutshell, you learn to take a breath and re-evaluate your currents positions regarding your mindset, your play, and your money....you learn to relax and re-figure in order to make the best decisions for yourself....funny thing about this game, NO ONE can do it for you....it's all on you.

Just remember that every time you're awaiting your trigger, or every time you're awaiting the shoe's "texture" to come into line with your preferred play, just remember that you're learning both patience and discipline AND you're SAVING MONEY by letting all those "virtual losses" go by WITHOUT it costing you anything but time.

I take this "racetrack analogy" so seriously that I've gone so far as to label my scorecards at each session as "Race 1" for the first shoe and "Race 2" for the second shoe and so forth.  To me, anything that assists me in my patience and my discipline can only be regarded as a plus to my style of play.

And, now as always, I wish it for all of you.  Stay well.

[Lung Yeh]

You are absolutely right. I think in a shoe of @75 hands we should limit the number of bets to maybe 4-5 times; at most. But like you said, its up to us and nobody else. Problem is I have not been able to control myself. Yet.

[Fred711]

Gr8 .....I don't know if you remember me from Baccarat forum BB, there I was Gerard711,any way I have learned so much info on this game from you a real player than from anywhere else. I'm a tough player for those dudes at the Sands, Pa....... thanks to you. You talk about texture of the shoe can you go into more detail........Thanks

[gr8player]

Sure, Gerard/Fred711, no prob....

By "texture", I'm speaking of the "feel" of each portion of the shoe, regarding streaks (FTL) vs opposites (OLD).  I think we'd all agree that it's rather rare for any shoe to maintain it's streakiness or choppiness, so I am constantly tracking for a "feel" as to when one of those might be coming to the forefront.

Going even a bit further:

I'm preferring the switches into OLD, or opposites.  Why?  Simple stats, that's why.  I mean, we all know about the 18-20 singles and the 8-10 doubles and the 5-6 triples....I like to utilize those stats, where I can, to my advantage.  Now, while I am fully aware that those stats don't mean much into the "short run" of each shoe, I do like to see a shoe that was abnormally streaky at the outset and now appears to be settling into the much more steady singles/doubles mode.

One more thing to add regarding this style of play:

A quick, short neg prog works best for me into my "opposites"/OLD play.  I gives me more than one stab at catching the opp and STILL making some money on it.  Now, that said, it requires cautiousness on my part....I don't want to be too "wrong" and have that short neg prog hurt me too much, so constant monitoring is the order of the day.  Let's not forget that knowing when to "get off" your plays is just as important as knowing when to "get on" them.

I usually find that I'm able to pick up a quick, nice profit on those portions of the shoes that do settle nicely into my own little stats world, and so that is where my play is concentrated.  Let me not forget to add all of the patience and discipline necessary for this, or, in fact, any preferred style of play.

Stay well.

[Fred711]

Thanks for the explanation for a second there I thought you were talking about the next shoe and I do play that way with a short neg/prog going against the 3 and 4 holes while always looking for that streak either on a side or a chop and tossing in a parlay Hey also good luck with your playing for a living I guess your still at it I see you started in May........someday I hope to get there I do have the patience and discipline to bring to the table and my knowing when to walk to either fight another day or walk with the win goal.

All the best G711

[gr8player]

Anti-3 & Anti-4, hop on the longer streaks or chops, occasional parlay.....you're a smart man, Fred711.  You'll be fine.

Take care.  I'm off to the Borgata thru Wed.  Stay well.

[AsymBacGuy]

Good post.

Yep, imo diluting our bets is one of the best tool to get a kind of control over the outcomes.
Imo, the more we bet the more we fall into the random unbeatable world. Of course, it's not sufficient to wait to bet in order to get an advantage, but it's a good start.

The virtual losses topic is essential knowing that baccarat is either a slight card dependent game and a 8.6% asymmetrical game.

Of course our ratio of actual winnings vs the total amount of both virtual losses and actual losses (minus the virtual winnings) must be able to overcome the 1.24% negative worst edge itlr.

We know that baccarat is a mathematically unbeatable game, now it remains to study if some very selected situations could get the patient player a sort of advantage that mathematics denies.

Jacobsen will say us "no, it's impossible".

He is wrong.

as.















 













 






   

[gr8player]

Correct, ABG, he, and "they" (we all know who the "they" are) are wrong.  "They" prefer to break the game down to the simple math of the house edge, and they leave it at that.  To them, we're all playing a negative expectancy game that cannot be overcome.

I beg to differ.  I am of the opinion that "picking one's spots" (again, we all know what that means....betting only when it appears as if the shoe...or portion thereof...is disposed to dispensing results that comply with our preferred selection process) and combining that with strict patience and discipline with conservative win goals/strict loss limits CAN and WILL put one at an advantage at this game. 

I realize that I am paid out at less than true odds.  I get it.  But what "they" don't get is that I'm not paid so much less that it cannot be overcome...in fact, at the Borgata, where the games are "Dragon 7" games and, thus, no commission is charged on any Banker win (other than a 3-card Banker win that totals a 7, which becomes a push on the Banker bet), the house edge is pared down to a paltry 1.06%.  IMHO, rather beatable, given the correct approach and play.

Stay well.

[Rolex-Watch]

Anti-3 & Anti-4, hop on the longer streaks or chops, occasional parlay.....you're a smart man, Fred711.  You'll be fine.

Take care.  I'm off to the Borgata thru Wed.  Stay well.

Just when I thought I had it sussed, now you promote AS, sure is tricky this great player fella