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[HunchBacShrimp]

I like to bet the Tie on the opening hand of a shoe.

First off, it gets the shoe started for myself and the rest of the punters waiting fora decision before making one themselves.
Secondly, I personally feel it's the only appropriate time to make a Tie bet without card counting. The shoe composition changes after each play, even though it is pretty insignificant it does change a bit. The shoe is never more pure than it is for the first decision.

I'm not a math guy, but to me it seems the Tie should show 1 out of 10 decisions roughly. To me, hypothetically, it should show on the first decision once out of every ten shoes, it should also be the second decision once out of ten shoes, it should also be the third, fourth, etc etc. However not every shoe has the exact same amount of decisions. So, for me its difficult to mathematically reconcile the Tie showing on decision 78 ten percent of the time when not all shoes reach the 78th decision. But there are (supposedly) enough cumulative ties to satisfy the statistical chance of 1 in 10. So, perhaps some of those ties are forced to appear more than one out ten times on some undetermined decision number. If that was true and could be pinpointed and edge could be found I guess.

But I just stick with the first decision. Every shoe has a first decision and I feel it is the most optimal time (outside of card counting) to make the bet. Oh I know it still holds a house edge, but afford me the indulgence of making a bad bet only once every 75 decisions or so.
It can be fun and I do win it, about 10% of the time. It's entertaining having the table congratulate you like you just predicted a 1 in 100 occurrence. I just bet the min table amount 5 bucks. My normal betting size is ever so slightly more than that. Never engaged in trying a progression on it. Thought it would be a long road to ruin with an 8 to 1 pay off on a bet I only make 3 to 10( max) times per trip to the casino.

Any thoughts? Perhaps a math guy can confirm my intuition.

[tdx]

Two anecdotes in the bac world is that the last hand in a shoe is a good bet for a tie.

And, the Player usually wins the next hand after a tie.

Wether these are true.....no one has the definitive answer.

[HunchBacShrimp]

I've heard about the last hand, and I've tried it a time or two. Didn't like it. I checked against my bac card bank. Which isn't much of a bank since my casino adopted using a digital screen for displaying the decisions and the various roads. It's made me lazy. And I found few ties as the last hand. I know my small sample size would be regarded as relatively insufficient, but imo it's a nice example of random events.

And the last hand isn't really the last hand, its hand 67 or hand 72 or hand 81. It's actually always or usually different every time whereas the first hand in any shoe is the same as the first hand in any other shoe.

I also poured over every occurrence of Tie I had recorded and about half the time next decision was B, and the other half P. I also checked if Tie appeared in the middle of a streak, if the streak continued or if it switched, again it was razor close to 50/50.

The only other thing I noticed is that tie more often appears second after a switch. bb p bTb ppp b p b pT b   etc.  I'm not saying that it does, just that from my observations it appears that way.

[mahatma]

What did your perusal show regards betting Tie after Tie??

I have observed a few players doing this 

[HunchBacShrimp]

Tie appeared after Tie 9.75% of the time. According to what I've recorded witnessing. Pretty much the same as the first hand of each shoe. Though, betting Tie after Tie increases your action ten fold. I've got Tie tripling only 4.1% after a double Tie.

Had a guy the other night just watching us play Bac for about 2 hrs. I was wondering just exactly what this guy was up to. That's a long time to be standing and watching doing nothing. Then eventually, as a short conversation about Tie came up as every other bettor bet heavy on the Tie bet he remarked to the dealer he would "lay the tie bet to lose". A craps player by the sound of it. Some craps players can be quite arrogant, especially darksiders ( lay bettors). I don't think that would be a good bet either. I've never seen or heard of such a bet. But I imagine it would be 11 to 1 or maybe 12 to 1. The House would definitely put an Edge on it.

I guarantee this guy isn't winning any money at the craps table laying the odds either. He illustrated clearly to me just how much he doesn't understand any of the basic math of gambling.

[audionut]

Read this "system" a couple of years ago....wait for 10 NON tie bets, then start betting tie....since it pays 8 to 1 (I think) you can play a nice, slow progression until you win.... 111111, 22222, 333, etc... anyway, test it out and look how often you win within 10-15 bets or so.... ??[smiley]aes/cool.png[/smiley]

[mahatma]

Don't be silly, the progression rises exponentially and it will eat your BR very fast after 20 something hands and no tie..

[HunchBacShrimp]

  I did a quick count and found a handful of occurrences with 50 decision in between Ties. So you are looking at writing out a progression at least 40 places if you wait for ten decisions before starting a progression. To be on the safe side ( which I don't think there is one) the progression should be written out 50 places. Twenty losses will be quite a few units but nothing compared to what happens between 30 and 40.

I wouldn't do this. But if I did, my gamble would be that there will be at least 2 ties in every shoe. I would wait for the first one, and try to capture the second one. And then wait for the next shoe.  I've got one shoe with no Ties in it, but don't think I was recording Ties that day, I was doing something different with vertical columns and betting FLD horizontally.  I have another shoe with only one Tie in it. It is the 53rd decision, which would lead you to believe a couple of Ties were 'due' before the end of the shoe, which did not occur. And then you are stuck wrapping your progression around the next shoe, which could very well go another 50 decisions. Busting a BR the size of a small fortune.

I played the equivalent of one shoe Friday night. Second half of one shoe and first half of the second shoe. Lost my Tie bet for the first hand of the second shoe, but that shoe did produce back to back Ties later on. I didn't bet them. Colored up +12u and went home without playing anymore. Thought about waiting for shoe to end so I could bet Tie for first hand of third shoe but it was late, the game was moving slow.