Trend following world

Garfield · December 27, 2015, 04:10:06 AM

Regarding to TF, IMO we could look for the trend not only in the main road. But sometime, the trend will show in bead road, and the 3 derived road.

Yes the only problem is how to know whether the trend is going to continue or not. I have been inspired by gr8 statement that "he wait until the play come into place". In my understand is like we TRY to catch the trend earlier. If it happened, than we might got some WIAR. But if not, we lose one unit.

Surely, when to start is rather subjective. It depend on one's method, approach , system etc.

Wewin2222 · December 27, 2015, 10:43:39 PM

Shuffle Master:

Players do follow trends but you need to have many tools in your tool box to be successful. The Shuffle Master from what I have observed gives the player an added advantage when predicting the upcoming hand. A friend of mine told me. "when the Bank has 3 Monkeys and the Player wins the very next hand will be a Player win." He was correct.....It got the wheels turning in my mind and I thought if it will do it in that instance it stands to reason that they're should be other opportunities.

I started tracking ever hand that comes out of the shoe and you will find certain cards that predict the upcoming hand 100% of the time.

If you are following a trend and you are also reading the cards and if they agree then you have more than one indication that the upcoming hand should win.

Wager on it with much confidence is my suggestion.....

Tomla · December 27, 2015, 10:47:42 PM

so you are talking about tracking cards and card values!

Wewin2222 · December 27, 2015, 11:05:29 PM

Tomla- I can only speak on what I observe while playing and afterwords while studying. it's not the card value although others look at card value. Certain cards will come out which will be a (Tell) for the casino when using the shuffle master. A Tell Cards at one casino will differ from another but they all have tells and a savvy Baccarat Player in conjunction with a lazy staff with a weak shoe can be beat very badly.

I played at an empty table early in the morning and I guess the casino thought they had made hay for the day because the shoe was so weak & predictable that I won nearly ever hand.

Wewin2222

soxfan · December 27, 2015, 11:22:45 PM

Time for the Guinness and cashew, again, hey hey!

Tomla · December 27, 2015, 11:53:15 PM

we winn---what are your conclusions on card counts then?

Wewin2222 · December 28, 2015, 04:47:03 AM

Tomla- If you think about the example that I gave above and look for other hands that present Bank or Player winners after these hands occurred. It will give you an added advantage especially if it lines up with the trend you are already following.

Wewin2222

BacPlayer · December 28, 2015, 01:45:05 PM

Have not stuides been done that show counting no work?

gr8player · December 28, 2015, 11:10:03 PM

Quote from: Garfield on December 27, 2015, 04:10:06 AM
Yes the only problem is how to know whether the trend is going to continue or not. I have been inspired by gr8 statement that "he wait until the play come into place". In my understand is like we TRY to catch the trend earlier. If it happened, than we might got some WIAR. But if not, we lose one unit.

Hello, Garfield.

Hmmm...."the only problem is how to know whether the trend is going to continue or not." Well, that's why we need a method of play that "locks up", or "ensures" profits WHENEVER we are correct about a trend.

What do I mean by that?:

Well, if you know me at all then you know me as a variance player. And that means, in a nutshell, that I like losses. No, not REAL losses. But I do like the losses of the "fictional" or "virtual" variety. You know....losses that cost me ZERO.

With those under my belt, I then await my preferred trend to hit. Just once. But I do need a starting point, and that's it. But I start ONLY after certain losses (read: I'd prefer my "nemesis" appear BEFORE I put up my real dollars), and, even then, I look to "lock up" a profit as quickly as I can. Oh, don't get me wrong....I'm not cashing out just yet. It's just that on those times when I am right, I want...no, wait...I INSIST on taking profit.

In this way, Garfield, the "continuance" of the trend is not as important as the actual profit thereof. Now, lest anyone misunderstand, I'd love the trend to continue for as long as possible; I'm not against making as much money as possible on a strong trend. I simply want to lock up my profit first, and then I can proceed as I deem it suitable to do so.

Take care.

caddy · December 29, 2015, 12:42:12 AM

Wewin2222,

Why not post some more concerning card counting?

You have our interest.

MarkTeruya · December 29, 2015, 02:53:56 PM

Quote from: gr8player on December 28, 2015, 11:10:03 PM
in a nutshell, that I like losses. No, not REAL losses. But I do like the losses of the "fictional" or "virtual" variety. You know....losses that cost me ZERO.

With those under my belt, I then await my preferred trend to hit. Just once. But I do need a starting point, and that's it.

So how does this work? Let's say you want to bet for a chop trend, so you wait for chop trend to lose, say maybe 4 or 5 chops. While you wait, the first set of chops is 4 or 5, opportunity missed, or you want to bet repeating two's, so you wait for two not to repeat many times, and the next time, you will be all over them to continue and you make money, except, the two's while you watch, continue, opportunity missed. I could chose any trend, if you are waiting for it to lose first, it might not, opportunity missed. It doesn't compute

Jimske · December 29, 2015, 03:16:39 PM

Quote from: Wewin2222 on December 28, 2015, 04:47:03 AM
Tomla- If you think about the example that I gave above and look for other hands that present Bank or Player winners after these hands occurred. It will give you an added advantage especially if it lines up with the trend you are already following.

Wewin2222

QUACK! QUACK!

Jimske · December 29, 2015, 03:44:28 PM

Quote from: gr8player on December 28, 2015, 11:10:03 PM
Hello, Garfield.

Hmmm...."the only problem is how to know whether the trend is going to continue or not." Well, that's why we need a method of play that "locks up", or "ensures" profits WHENEVER we are correct about a trend.

What do I mean by that?:

Well, if you know me at all then you know me as a variance player. And that means, in a nutshell, that I like losses. No, not REAL losses. But I do like the losses of the "fictional" or "virtual" variety. You know....losses that cost me ZERO.

With those under my belt, I then await my preferred trend to hit. Just once. But I do need a starting point, and that's it. But I start ONLY after certain losses (read: I'd prefer my "nemesis" appear BEFORE I put up my real dollars), and, even then, I look to "lock up" a profit as quickly as I can. Oh, don't get me wrong....I'm not cashing out just yet. It's just that on those times when I am right, I want...no, wait...I INSIST on taking profit.

In this way, Garfield, the "continuance" of the trend is not as important as the actual profit thereof. Now, lest anyone misunderstand, I'd love the trend to continue for as long as possible; I'm not against making as much money as possible on a strong trend. I simply want to lock up my profit first, and then I can proceed as I deem it suitable to do so.

Take care.

What does a trend comprise of? How many decisions? What is your preferred trend may I ask? I got no issue with this. No different than choosing the last X number of decisions as a trend (read pattern) unless of course you are of the opinion (mistaken belief) that one trend has a significantly greater chance of appearing than another.

Well you could wait for your nemesis to appear and never see it. So as you're sitting there waiting and recording virtual wins at some point you say, "I'm going to make a bet." Because your trend hit, right? Maybe you win or maybe your nemesis appears and you lose x IAR. Whatever.

That's all fine. But it isn't much or any different than choosing a placement and waiting for x LIAR and then start betting because you know that LIAR are finite. For instance, I will generally always bet that a 5 IAR stops so I bet once or even twice that there won't be a 6 or a 7. How much I bet depends on my risk potential at that point in the session. Or just watching to see what run lengths are greater than average and betting that they will continue. So you can slice and dice this any way you want.

Locking up a win always a good idea. Still, as you have mentioned in the past, you got to have a recoup betting plan. You like to double up next shoe since you feel it is hard for you to lose 2 shoes IAR.

So all you are really doing is simplifying your game by playing less hands. That has merit because it allows for less confusion UNLESS one has a specific plan to bet every hand then there is no confusion because your next bet is always known whether the last won, lost, or landed on either side.

Garfield · December 29, 2015, 04:40:29 PM

Quote from: Wewin2222 on December 28, 2015, 04:47:03 AM
Tomla- If you think about the example that I gave above and look for other hands that present Bank or Player winners after these hands occurred. It will give you an added advantage especially if it lines up with the trend you are already following.

Wewin2222

This has some point in it. Sometimes I even dare to say I knew what will drew next after the 2 first card.
I.e : player 4 and monkey, banker monkey monkey. The next hand for player, mostly in my experienced, is 7. And banker will win by 2 or 3.

Player 3 and monkey, the 3rd card is an 8.

Player double 5's, the 3 rd either monkey or 5.

That's just some of the "phenomenon" I've noticed.

It is not definite, but I've seen this happened a lot. The problem is how I would know that player will draw as I mentioned above? No one know.

gr8player · December 29, 2015, 09:46:11 PM

Quote from: MarkTeruya on December 29, 2015, 02:53:56 PM
So how does this work? Let's say you want to bet for a chop trend, so you wait for chop trend to lose, say maybe 4 or 5 chops. While you wait, the first set of chops is 4 or 5, opportunity missed, or you want to bet repeating two's, so you wait for two not to repeat many times, and the next time, you will be all over them to continue and you make money, except, the two's while you watch, continue, opportunity missed. I could chose any trend, if you are waiting for it to lose first, it might not, opportunity missed. It doesn't compute

Hello, Johno.

You are not looking at my play from the correct "angle", it appears.

I do not wait for virtual losses. Rather, I await them to come to me. And make no mistake of it, J, come they will. One only needs to know exactly what to look for.

Think about it for a moment, if you will: To every trend play (yes, even mine) there exists it's "flip-side", or opposite. The astute player is the one that can make money from either side of the coin.

Take care.