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[gr8player]

What does a trend comprise of?  How many decisions?  What is your preferred trend may I ask?  I got no issue with this.  No different than choosing the last X number of decisions as a trend (read pattern) unless of course you are of the opinion (mistaken belief) that one trend has a significantly greater chance of appearing than another.

Well you could wait for your nemesis to appear and never see it.  So as you're sitting there waiting and recording virtual wins at some point you say, "I'm going to make a bet."  Because your trend hit, right?  Maybe you win or maybe your nemesis appears and you lose x IAR.  Whatever. 

That's all fine.  But it isn't much or any different than choosing a placement and waiting for x LIAR and then start betting because you know that LIAR are finite.  For instance, I will generally always bet that a 5 IAR stops so I bet once or even twice that there won't be a 6 or a 7.  How much I bet depends on my risk potential at that point in the session.  Or just watching to see what run lengths are greater than average and betting that they will continue.  So you can slice and dice this any way you want. 

Locking up a win always a good idea.  Still, as you have mentioned in the past, you got to have a recoup betting plan.  You like to double up next shoe since you feel it is hard for you to lose 2 shoes IAR. 

So all you are really doing is simplifying your game by playing less hands.  That has merit because it allows for less confusion UNLESS one has a specific plan to bet every hand then there is no confusion because your next bet is always known whether the last won, lost, or landed on either side.

Hello, Jimske.

May I amend your "waiting for x LIAR and then start betting" to:

Await a virtual win before commencing to bet; regardless the length of your virtual LIAR.  I much prefer to await some sort of proof that the "anomaly" is exhausted, and have a bit more evidence of the obviously-impending correction, before commencing with real bets. 

When this sort of play is done correctly (do not forget about locking in the quick profit....IOW, never lose on a trend that you were correct on), there exists no equal to it as it pertains to even-chance play.  The experienced, patient, and disciplined player would be hard-pressed to screw this up; but it takes a total, unwavering commitment (as does, frankly, any successful endeavor in life).

Take care.

[gr8player]

Oh, and I should have added as well:

There is no room for any sort of greed with this sort of play; none whatsoever.

One must learn to pick up their profits (as limited as they are) and move on to the next opportunity.

It's relatively slow, and that makes it relatively frustrating as well, especially when you're wrong and dropped a couple of units.  Now you've got to "re-load" and await the next opportunity...it can (and does, believe me) get frustrating.

But just know:  As I said in my last post just above:  There exists no viable alternative to this sort of play when considering the even chances.  Whenever I get a bit frustrated with the current turn of events at a table, I simply recant that in my mind.

Take care.

[ppkkint]

Hello, Garfield.

Hmmm...."the only problem is how to know whether the trend is going to continue or not."  Well, that's why we need a method of play that "locks up", or "ensures" profits WHENEVER we are correct about a trend.

What do I mean by that?:

Well, if you know me at all then you know me as a variance player.  And that means, in a nutshell, that I like losses.  No, not REAL losses.  But I do like the losses of the "fictional" or "virtual" variety.  You know....losses that cost me ZERO.

With those under my belt, I then await my preferred trend to hit.  Just once.  But I do need a starting point, and that's it.  But I start ONLY after certain losses (read: I'd prefer my "nemesis" appear BEFORE I put up my real dollars), and, even then, I look to "lock up" a profit as quickly as I can.  Oh, don't get me wrong....I'm not cashing out just yet.  It's just that on those times when I am right, I want...no, wait...I INSIST on taking profit.

In this way, Garfield, the "continuance" of the trend is not as important as the actual profit thereof.  Now, lest anyone misunderstand, I'd love the trend to continue for as long as possible; I'm not against making as much money as possible on a strong trend.  I simply want to lock up my profit first, and then I can proceed as I deem it suitable to do so.

Take care.

Hello Gr8 ,
I don't fully  understand what  you mean by (read: I'd prefer my "nemesis" appear BEFORE I put up my real money)?
Could you possibly give us some sort of examples to understand it better.
Thanks.

[soxfan]

Shrewd cats can make good cake with streaks based and anti-streaks based play. It ain't rocket science baby, hey hey.

[jaguar]

What does a trend comprise of?  How many decisions?  What is your preferred trend may I ask?  I got no issue with this.  No different than choosing the last X number of decisions as a trend (read pattern) unless of course you are of the opinion (mistaken belief) that one trend has a significantly greater chance of appearing than another.

Well you could wait for your nemesis to appear and never see it.  So as you're sitting there waiting and recording virtual wins at some point you say, "I'm going to make a bet."  Because your trend hit, right?  Maybe you win or maybe your nemesis appears and you lose x IAR.  Whatever. 

That's all fine.  But it isn't much or any different than choosing a placement and waiting for x LIAR and then start betting because you know that LIAR are finite.  For instance, I will generally always bet that a 5 IAR stops so I bet once or even twice that there won't be a 6 or a 7.  How much I bet depends on my risk potential at that point in the session.  Or just watching to see what run lengths are greater than average and betting that they will continue.  So you can slice and dice this any way you want. 

Locking up a win always a good idea.  Still, as you have mentioned in the past, you got to have a recoup betting plan.  You like to double up next shoe since you feel it is hard for you to lose 2 shoes IAR. 

So all you are really doing is simplifying your game by playing less hands.  That has merit because it allows for less confusion UNLESS one has a specific plan to bet every hand then there is no confusion because your next bet is always known whether the last won, lost, or landed on eith

It's not hard finding a trend or a pattern,  you might see a strong B or P, or like today I found in  the beginning of a shoe every time a natural came it always jumped. Or of course you could see a  chop or a run, if you start to see this happen bet one unit on what ever your seeing, if you lose you only lose one unit if you win worst you can do is break even, keep following it until it ends and make units.

[Gizmotron]

Oh, and I should have added as well:

There is no room for any sort of greed with this sort of play; none whatsoever.

One must learn to pick up their profits (as limited as they are) and move on to the next opportunity.

It's relatively slow, and that makes it relatively frustrating as well, especially when you're wrong and dropped a couple of units.  Now you've got to "re-load" and await the next opportunity...it can (and does, believe me) get frustrating.

But just know:  As I said in my last post just above:  There exists no viable alternative to this sort of play when considering the even chances.  Whenever I get a bit frustrated with the current turn of events at a table, I simply recant that in my mind.

Take care.

What you just wrote is so well put. Positive resulting swings lay among the land mined strewn landscape. The trick is to step on the potentially explosive devices and disarm them before being blown up. You must be comfortable running headlong into the beginning of downturns, knowing that you will sidestep their full potential, all the while proceeding through to the upturns.

All the talk of trend detection, data mining techniques, charting characteristics, and pattern following are nothing more than bet selection methods that allow someone to step on the downturns or upturns. So once you get past the minutia of trend following you are left to be hit by the real difficult part of being a successful player, frustration, greed, impatience, self esteem, pride, covetous ambition, and exhilaration; all of that combined together to prevent you from stopping when you should have. The trick to all this is to not get blown up.

If you have blown off a leg or arm you must not fall for the first sin of gaming theory, "don't chase your losses." That will take care of itself if you just trust your ability to detect good and bad conditions. It takes a win streak to counter the effect of playing too long in a losing streak. Why should a losing streak lead directly to a win streak? That's like expecting a win streak to start just as you happen to walk in the door of a casino. Because you just started playing does not dictate when an upturn will start or end. You must let the bombs and the "Get out of jail" cards come when they do. Randomness is the final say when it comes to consistent winning, not large number statistical probability averages and the need for futuristic predictions. That's not to say that baseline values to detect variations in the flow of deviations from the baseline are not useful as Gr8player uses them to detect upturns and downturns, and has clearly pointed out as a bet selection method. It's just another way to take advantage of existing trends. It's reading randomness and acting wisely from the detected results, nothing more.

[AsymBacGuy]

I'm pleased many people replied here, and I agree with the largest part of the points discussed.

Anyway a "not so expert" player reading those pages might be disoriented knowing that from one part the game is absolutely unbeatable itlr but from the other part a careful assessment of the various trends (or every trending) widely considered (actual hand results, actual or fictional W/L ratio and so on) could be a viable tool to get the best of it.

In a word, that the dispersion and concentration of most part of baccarat situations could be "controlled" in some way, let's say to transform a random world into a more attackable partially unrandom world.

It's impossible to convince mathematicians this option could exist and actually there's no a precise trend following strategy ever publicized capable to demonstrate its validity.

So we must infer that any successful TF player keeps his secret well hidden. :-)

Or yet that any successful TF player should put in action some adjustments interfering with the common sense and the common laws of probabilities.

Any thought other than the composure, limiting the eagerness, etc issues?

as. 















   

[gr8player]

Any thought other than the composure, limiting the eagerness, etc issues?

Yes.

Consistency.  It's not that I don't realize that I am rather relentless in my posts that this most important (and, frankly, imperative) aspect of one's game is both explained and discussed, but please know that I do so only as a matter of emphasis.

Patience and discipline will both be rendered moot without a consistent bet selection process.  And, lest we think otherwise, consistency is the toughest of the three to actually maintain.

Think about it for a moment:

Raise your hand if you've ever switched bet selection methods, either between sessions (geez, we're all guilty there, aren't we?) or, worse, even in the midst of any played session.  Sure we have.  We lose with a certain "favorite" play, and we're all quickly seeking our very next "favorite".  And so it's back to the drawing board, seeking that one bet selection method that'll see us as consistent winners.

Well, allow me be the first to tell you:  Stop it.  You'll find no answers in any particular bet selection method; rather, you'll find only frustration, and, even worse, long term losses.

Rather, one must look within themselves for the answers to this game.  Are you built for success?  (Read:  Is your Bac game built for success?)  Yes, you are a vital part of the game.  In fact, I'm quite certain, you are the most vital part.  It is only when you come to terms with that that you will ever even stand a chance for any long term success.

And THAT is why I'm relentless in posts regarding patience and discipline and consistency.

OK.  Now you're saying to yourself, OK, Gr8, I'm ready.  I'm prepared to stay the course, I'm prepared to begin patient, disciplined and consistent play....so now what?  Where do I begin, or, even better, HOW do I begin to make this all pay off for me at this game?

Well, you begin by learning your way around a shoe.  You need to know what the average shoe looks like.  Ever see a shoe streak out the entire way?  Ever see a shoe chop out the entire way?  Well, you might've, but, let's remember, I said that you need to know what the "average" (read: normal) shoe looks like, not the "anomaly" (read: rare) shoe.

I'll lose on the anomaly shoe that stays anomalous throughout.  It's OK.  I won't lose much anyway, what with my "virtual loss" strategy combined with "proof of correction" before commencing real betting.  But, still, even losing a few units, it's OK.  I fully realize that I simply ain't gonna win them all.

But I'll beat the majority of them.  As my "virtual" losses are totaled, I'll be there for the impending correction, you can bet on that (heck, I do).  (Make no mistake of it, most shoes have certain "corrections".)  And so, in that regard, my bet selection process remains as consistent as possible.  (There's that word again: Consistent.)  I have no other play, and so I have no other option.  As the shoe unfolds (or, even at the beginning if the prior shoe pointed toward an impending correction), I seek corrections only AFTER certain trends vastly under-performed (read: suffered "virtual" losses").  Sidenote:  Very important:  1.  Real play only begins after PROOF of the impending correction; and 2.  Profit MUST be locked up, for you absolutely must learn to "pay yourself" whenever you are correct.

Yeah, it's slow.  Yeah, it can get a bit frustrating at times.  But unless someone can post right here and right now a nice and easy mechanical bet selection method that wins over the long term....well, you get my point.  Ain't no "nice and easy" to this game; not now, not ever.

So get over it.  Stop looking for that "magical" bet selection method.  Much smarter people than you and I have sought that very notion for years, and, yet miraculously, this game still exists.

No, there's no magic formula.  There's just YOU.  What can you do to overcome this game?  For most of us, there is nothing.  It will forever remain an unbeatable game.  And that's OK, too.  Better to realize it as early (read: cheaply) as possible.

The only viable alternative is to LEARN what it REALLY TAKES to get the better of this game.

And, as always, I wish it for all of you.  Stay well.

[AsymBacGuy]

Well, you begin by learning your way around a shoe.  You need to know what the average shoe looks like.  Ever see a shoe streak out the entire way?  Ever see a shoe chop out the entire way?  Well, you might've, but, let's remember, I said that you need to know what the "average" (read: normal) shoe looks like, not the "anomaly" (read: rare) shoe.

No need to make further comments, in my defunct "dispositions and distributions" post I stressed for months about our "average shoe" friend.

As always a great post from you and not only because you mentioned the above statement. 

Take care

as.

[gr8player]

Thanks, ABG.

My methodology was designed by me as a means of "variance control". 

As we all know, every bet selection method fails at some point because of the inherent negative variance that accompanies any even-chance event.

It is with that in mind that I finally realized what my true "nemesis" is, and then I focused on limiting variance's destructive tendencies.

Hence, the birth of my "virtual loss" methodology.

Stay well, my friend.

[AsymBacGuy]

Yes gr8player.

Besides a couple or so of sure EV+ spots derived from statistically raising the non equal hands' probability, the trick to try to win itlr is all about assessing and measuring the variance and not about guessing right more often than not by magical features.

We could get a kind of scientific answer by falsifying the hypothesis.

Let's say we put in play the smartest TF player the world has ever known from one part and the counter such TF strategy player from the other one.

Not surprisingly in the end the acute TF player results will be the same of the counter TF player results, at least not accounting some valid adjustments made from either part.

Imo, valid adjustments could be made after having assessed what most likely happens per any shoe and per long series of shoes; not forcing the outcomes withing too restricted intervals; properly assessing the variance's impact; reducing at the least the searched profit per every shoe, per every sequence of shoes, per every session, per every week, per every month; knowing that certain distributions, either positive or negative (it's up to us to classify the word positive or negative), will surely show up along the way.

Imo and widely speaking, there are no better or worse bet selections, the only stuff we should interested of is about their distribution.

A wise player might very well get the best of it betting toward long P streaks apperance or P dominance, imo the worst selection any player could make.

Actually a P lover must solely rely upon the probability that some card distributions will favor this chance, whereas B side could get help either from card distributions and from the third card rule.
But this won't happen so often on either side.

as. 





     

 









 



   

[Jimske]

What the EF are you two going on about?  This love fest of gobbly gook where you drone on about absolutely nothing that can be applied in the real world is making me go over to Ellis' BTC site.  Of course I'll have to beg him to take me off of the forever banned list.  But it will be worth it to get away from you two say nothing nincompoops (yes it's a real word).  Why is it that neither of you have ever given one example of what you are talking about?

Yes gr8player.

Besides a couple or so of sure EV+ spots derived from statistically raising the non equal hands' probability, the trick to try to win itlr is all about assessing and measuring the variance and not about guessing right more often than not by magical features.

We could get a kind of scientific answer by falsifying the hypothesis.

How about giving an example of a couple of EV+ spots?  How come you're not in Malaysia by now winning big bucks for Yung Leh?  I'll answer that.  You don't play!  Measuring the variance?  You mind explaining how one makes such a measurement?  Surely if one can measure than one can achieve some specific measurable result, no?

Well, you begin by learning your way around a shoe.  You need to know what the average shoe looks like.  Ever see a shoe streak out the entire way?  Ever see a shoe chop out the entire way?  Well, you might've, but, let's remember, I said that you need to know what the "average" (read: normal) shoe looks like, not the "anomaly" (read: rare)

What's an average shoe?  When do you determine if the shoe is average?  After it ends?  Every x number of hands?

This idea that one cannot or should not change a bet placement in a shoe is just absurd.  A trender makes bets based on the TREND of the shoe.  Hello?  If the trend changes than well . . . maybe ... just maybe you might want to change the placement?

LOL.  Anyway, it's a lot of fun listening to you two!

[AsymBacGuy]

Jim, maybe it's you to deserve a Malaysia or Singapore trip, ask Lung for that I'll give you my privilege.

You claim to get a 52% WR playing a TF strategy that, sorry and according to what you wrote so far, it's a total gibberish with 1 billion accuracy.

You want to know the EV situations? Study!

You want to know the variance measurements? Study!

Don't ask, be proud to get your 52% WR.

as.















   

[Jimske]

Jim, maybe it's you to deserve a Malaysia or Singapore trip, ask Lung for that I'll give you my privilege.

Are you quite sure he hasn't already?

You claim to get a 52% WR playing a TF strategy that, sorry and according to what you wrote so far, it's a total gibberish with 1 billion accuracy.

First of all my claim is a fact because I record every bet I make. To date 52.41%.  Here is a sample from 3 shoes I played yesterday.  This is how I record every shoe.  Date.  W, L # hands bet and % Win.

1.2.16   18      20   38   47%
1.2.16   23      19   42   55%
1.2.16   21      15   36   58%

So you can sit there behind your computer and RNG calculating 1 billion hands but after over 8000 bets made I will have to take a HUGE hit continually in order for this to get back to the EV.

There is a difference between your gibberish and my reality. 

You want to know the EV situations? Study!

You want to know the variance measurements? Study!

Huh?  I really don't care how . . .  I never asked for you to tell all.  I just asked for simple percentages.  HOW MANY BETS PER SHOE ON AVERAGE AND WHAT IS THE % WIN RATE!  Heck, you already said you are "more selective" than Gr8's 15 average bets per shoe where he wins 54% (1 unit a shoe which I'm not knocking - a win is a win - at least he gives real player facts).  So what's the harm in giving the same statistic?

You're the one who has been telling everyone on every site that you will soon publish a book revealing all.

Don't ask, be proud to get your 52% WR. as.

Pride got nothing to do with it.  Patience, discipline, MM, betting what the shoe is giving you.

[MarkTeruya]

The strange world of Baccarat players, where nothing is better or worst than a coin flip, therefore in players heads, the irrational actually has merit.  Maintain that for a few decades and you end up with sane yet insane deluded folk needing to keep secrets, for obvious reasons.

That reminds me, Maverick Ultimate anybody?