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Understanding Clustering/Clumping

Started by alrelax, March 02, 2025, 06:46:02 PM

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alrelax

Clustering and clumping illusion. It is the cognitive bias of seeing a pattern in what is actually a random sequence of an unknown number of certain events. It is the human tendency to perceive connections and patterns in unrelated or random things and play them out in a repetitive procedure.

While at times and short time/sections at that, it might prove profitable, it will grind you down if you continuously wager for the hopes of something preset happening. 

A simple way to understand the illusion of fallacy is to get ten pennies and drop them in to say an empty game box cover and observe how they fall. You will see all the pennies will not fall exactly the same each time. Some pennies will obviously be closer to each other and form kind of a cluster or clump but this is truly a visual and physical outcome of random distribution.

So get an empty game box lid like from the game of Monopoly or something else and try dropping the pennies from the same height about 25 times and you'll see what I'm talking about.

Note the formations, clumping next to each and positioning of each drop as compared to the following ones. 
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