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[Jimske]

Jimske I may need help with my maths.

for simple math

8000 bets at a 52% WR  if you bet every hand to make 8000 bets  one month of full time play at 160 hours.

2% above breakeven.  8000 X 2% = 160  bets profit before commissions

160 bets profit over 160 hours played  = 1 bet profit per hour ?

maths... 8000 bets  / 75 hands per game = 106 games x 1.5 hours per game = 160 hours    160 profit/ 160 hours   = 1  bet profit per hour ? if you bet every hand  , if you bet less number of hands per hour you will make less per hour ?

ez

Seems right to me .  Now Gr8 bets 15 bets per shoe with a 54% win rate (he says) and mostly flat bets with a few parlays.  Guesstimate that win profit per hour!

I don't flat bet.  But you are right hands per hour an important criteria.  Soxfan always says "flat bet don't feed the bulldog"  LOL 

But you got to keep in mind that you can still lose even with a 52% hit rate in a shoe.  You can also still win even with a 48% hit rate in a shoe.  The trick is to get more profit than the % hit rate would dictate in a + shoe and reduce losses in a - shoe.

[james]

If win rate is 52%, out of 8000 bets, W is 4160 and L is 3840 for a net gain of 320 units and not 160 units. Out of 4160 win bets, 50.6% bets, i.e. 2105 bets would have been made on Banker. The commission is 105 units. Net gain is 215 units for 8000 bets at 52% win rate.

[Jimske]

If win rate is 52%, out of 8000 bets, W is 4160 and L is 3840 for a net gain of 320 units and not 160 units. Out of 4160 win bets, 50.6% bets, i.e. 2105 bets would have been made on Banker. The commission is 105 units. Net gain is 215 units for 8000 bets at 52% win rate.

Glad to see someone on the ball, I wasn't.  That sounds right and my win rate is not include commission either.  I always estimate that I bet B and P at the same incident as well.  So that comes out to about 1.5 unis an hour net profit at 60 hands per hour, right?

As a rule my high bet is 4 units but my ave. bet size (ABS) is not 2.5 units.  It's less but I don't know what exactly.  Probably 1.75 or 2 which accounts for my profit of about 3 units a shoe.

So Gr8's 54% is HUGE. . . but at 15 mostly flat bets per shoe average and over an hour per shoe it comes out to less than 1 unit per shoe net. A little more with the occasional parlay as he states. (Check my math.)

This brings up the question everyone should ask themselves.  How much $ can I realistically profit from this game?  What's it going to take to achieve that?

J

[james]

3 units a shoe is nothing to sneeze at. Keep up that win rate and gradually increase the bet size with winnings.

[Jimske]

3 units a shoe is nothing to sneeze at. Keep up that win rate and gradually increase the bet size with winnings.

No it's not.  In fact I am highly skeptical of anyone gaining significantly more than that.  It becomes very difficult to achieve without a strict rule based mechanical bet and placement method.  As soon as we introduce subjectivity (true guessing) fatigue, compulsion, boredom and confusion can ruin concentration required to win.  So for me it becomes difficult to play more than 2 or 3 shoes per session.

The other aspect of hourly win is shoe win %.  I have two mechanical methods that win about 3.5 units a shoe net (only a few hundred shoes each) but the shoe win rates are 50% and 60%.  With that kind of shoe win rate one can not have confidence that it will maintain!  This means pretty high variance which is unacceptable to me.  I want at least an 80% shoe win rate to bother.  Otherwise I may as well stick to my trend method which I do.  Problem with that is it becomes difficult to bump up the base bet because with subjectivity there is always doubt.

[soxfan]

I capture about ten units per shoe profits and that's plenty good enough to feed the bulldog, hey hey.

[Jimske]

I capture about ten units per shoe profits and that's plenty good enough to feed the bulldog, hey hey.

You the man!