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[AsymBacGuy]

Would you consider  being able to pass The Van Keelen Test to be a definitive example of having an edge ?

What if you can't reach 550/1000 each time but you are above 500 each time? Would you consider that an example of having an edge ?

That's interesting. If you are so kind to elaborate...

as.

[AsymBacGuy]

Van Keelen test

A system indicates a genuine superiority (even money bets by flat betting):

-   if after 1000 placed bets a gain of more than 100 units was obtained
-   if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained
-   if after 100000 place bets a result better than 1000 was obtained

Is this the test you were talking about?

as.

[ezmark]

What about a flat bet method with an Average of at least One Unit win per shoe? This may be more realistic. Any additional thoughts?

[Big EZ]

Yes that is the test I refer to

[AsymBacGuy]

Variance is not the enemy, the house edge is. Beat the house edge and the variance is irrelevant.

Theorically that's true, in the practice it's not so easy to handle this.


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[AsymBacGuy]

To get a vulgar example of how variance works at baccarat when a player has a sure undeniable and mathematical edge, pretend to have a fantastic no-vig game on B bets.
So itlr we'll strike rich only betting the Banker, the casinos we'll finally go broke and Semyon Dukack will be the most happy person in the world.

Test thousands and thousands and thousand of shoes and you'll look at some long consecutive and tedious shoes where the B will come out very rarely, principally by singles form.
Some "unfortunate" players will get such long sequences lasting several shoes just at the start of their playing sessions.
Worse yet, some people who benefitted of many very rich B shoes at the start begin to fall into the sure "poor" or "very poor" future B hands shoes where they don't know what to do to stop this bleeding.

Do we really think that 100% of the persons playing in such heavenly game will be eventually winners?

Are there some ploys to reduce the negative variance that invariably will come out soon or later?

Now let's think about our actual real play not benefitting from any mathematical edge by any means.
Are we really able to control the variance in a short-intermediate amount of shoes?

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[Big EZ]

When 98% of my 1k placed bet graphs look like this it makes me [smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley]

I know the characteristics of my bet very well, and I also don't have any big draw down or very long losing streaks

[AsymBacGuy]

When 98% of my 1k placed bet graphs look like this it makes me [smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley]

I know the characteristics of my bet very well, and I also don't have any big draw down or very long losing streaks

I'm very happy to hear that!

Transforming your statement into the gambling environment I dare to say you are another one having found the Holy Grail.

as.