BetSelection.cc

So I try to see how many think BS is more important than MM vice versa.

For ppl with limit bankroll, BS;
For ppl with deep pockets, MM.

Is what I think.

Come. To see how many of you think bet selection is more important than money management vice versa. Thx

It is a tie condition up until now. Would like to hear more thoughts and votes.

If each hand is a non-predictable outcome, were prior outcomes have no bearing, relevance on the next hand(s), then how on gods earth can bet selection be more important than the amount you have bet, will bet!!! 

It ain't even close, the mm/progression scheme is infinitely more important than the bet selections, hey hey.

 I would like to ask something for "MM" side.

If we have more lose than win, then we have to apply negative progresion, right? IMO a "recoup" plan always involve bigger units. But recoup plan will be successful or not depend whether your "recoup" bet will be right or not.

If not, surely we are in deeper hole. And how we will know that our bet selection that we used ( that has lose more than win) in the particular shoe, will guarante that our recoup bet will win?

First of all, I am not trying to offend anyone here. Just want to know how to deal with it.

Frankly, if my bet selection lose more than win, I would be hesitate to throw bigger bet. Especially when I am losing.

Thank you,

If everybody believe that itlr player will make more wrong bet selection than the right ones, in term of number of the bet, not the amount, then why not play by partner?

So we bet with our prefer choice, whatever it is, and our partner just bet the opposite side. He /she doesn't have to think about anything, just bet opposite your bet with bigger unit.

IMO the next problem will arise, we wouldn't know which one of us would be win more than lose.

So, back again to square one.

What would you think?

???
Thank you,

Some thought from my experience

As long as in the particular shoe, we don't lose more than 3 LIAR, and could make a successful 2 WIAR frequently, with a mild negative progression, even with the ratio of 50:50 we would be still ahead. If the ratio is higher than it will be better result.

If we have more clustered LIAR, with sporadic single win, max 2 WIAR, we need bigger units to manuver during the down swing, with the bigger risk also.

I thought with bs that could produce more win than lose, we could be more flexible to choose between positive or negative progression.

But if we lose more, the negative progression is the only way.

This is all IMHO.

Thank you,

Of course its MM.

I lost 8 in a row wednesday night. I proceeded to win 3 and lose 13. If you don't have a solid MM and a bankroll, you're dead before you begin. I proceeded to bet purple chips and finally hit 5 or 6 in a row, made a little money, and called it a night. Battling back from being out thousands gets old.......

Quote from: marinetech on January 15, 2016, 11:56:51 AM
Of course its MM.

I lost 8 in a row wednesday night. I proceeded to win 3 and lose 13. If you don't have a solid MM and a bankroll, you're dead before you begin. I proceeded to bet purple chips and finally hit 5 or 6 in a row, made a little money, and called it a night. Battling back from being out thousands gets old.......

So you still use the same bet selection? Don't it come in mind if it still went wrong then you will be in deeper hole?

So you are ready for that?

After re thingking again maybe it wasn't which one is better. But the state of mind. You need to have steel balls to throw big bet just to recoup, knowing the risk.

@marinetech and other "MM" side

How much LIAR could your MM survive? I want to know the average. And if happened you only won the last pajse on your MM, how much will it bring you back? 50%? 60%? Or more?

Myself has experienced up to 10 LIAR. And in that phase I only managed to get back to 30% of my BR

In my book which has been temporarily shelved, there is a section which has withstood the test of time. I term it 1) hot phase 2) neutral phase and 3) shar chi or deadly phase.
In the hot phase, whatever you bet, you win. The patterns appear so clear to you. Your thoughts are clear and your decisions, spot on. When the casino has 8 points you end up with 9. When you have 1 point, the casino ends up with zero or baccarat.
In the neutral phase, you win one and then lose one. The wins and losses even out.
In the shar chi (a term derived from the study of Feng Shui meaning killing arrows) or deadly phase, whatever you bet you lose. It is the exact opposite of the hot phase. You have 8 points and the casino ends up with 9. The casino has 1 point and you end up with zero or baccarat. Even with tears in your eyes, the casino continues to take your money.
MM strategies depends on which phase of the game. If in a Shar chi phase and you go on to negative progression, you may lose 5,6,7,8 times and decimate your bankroll. In a hot phase, maintain bigger bets or go into positive progressions. In a neutral phase, bet small or sit it out. it's a waste of time.
The phases alternate within 12-20 hands. Sometimes it drags on to 30-40 hands. If you are hurt during the shar chi phase, it will drag on longer and unbelievably. If you hit it right during the hot phase, it can also go on longer.
But nothing goes on forever. Just remember that. As in life and in driving on a highway, there are smooth periods where everything goes right and there are times where there is the immaculate congestion.

The trick is to have bankroll available when the hot phase arrives. Oftentimes when the hot phase comes, one is left with a small bankroll and is then facing an uphill battle to chase losses.

Quote from: Lung Yeh on January 15, 2016, 03:13:47 PM
The trick is to have bankroll available when the hot phase arrives. Oftentimes when the hot phase comes, one is left with a small bankroll and is then facing an uphill battle to chase losses.

You understand experienced player strategy. My overall method has a method to deal with the "deadly phase" too. I get out of my standard flat bets and minimum bet the reds or blacks. In Roulette there is no sitting out spins. If you want your seat at the table you must place at least minimum bets. When the hot phase comes, and it always comes eventually, I shift up to attacking bets. In my method, I only have to win the first bet in order to take the big ride upward.

It is my experience that you only get one to three hot phases per four-hour gambling session in Roulette. I also play the steady grind upward. It beats the red/black bets just a little so what the heck.

Quote from: Lung Yeh on January 15, 2016, 03:10:22 PM
In my book which has been temporarily shelved, there is a section which has withstood the test of time. I term it 1) hot phase 2) neutral phase and 3) shar chi or deadly phase.
In the hot phase, whatever you bet, you win. The patterns appear so clear to you. Your thoughts are clear and your decisions, spot on. When the casino has 8 points you end up with 9. When you have 1 point, the casino ends up with zero or baccarat.
In the neutral phase, you win one and then lose one. The wins and losses even out.
In the shar chi (a term derived from the study of Feng Shui meaning killing arrows) or deadly phase, whatever you bet you lose. It is the exact opposite of the hot phase. You have 8 points and the casino ends up with 9. The casino has 1 point and you end up with zero or baccarat. Even with tears in your eyes, the casino continues to take your money.
MM strategies depends on which phase of the game. If in a Shar chi phase and you go on to negative progression, you may lose 5,6,7,8 times and decimate your bankroll. In a hot phase, maintain bigger bets or go into positive progressions. In a neutral phase, bet small or sit it out. it's a waste of time.
The phases alternate within 12-20 hands. Sometimes it drags on to 30-40 hands. If you are hurt during the shar chi phase, it will drag on longer and unbelievably. If you hit it right during the hot phase, it can also go on longer.
But nothing goes on forever. Just remember that. As in life and in driving on a highway, there are smooth periods where everything goes right and there are times where there is the immaculate congestion.

Good reply! Very inspiring! Well done and thank you!

  :applause: :applause: :applause:

Quote from: Lung Yeh on January 15, 2016, 03:13:47 PM
The trick is to have bankroll available when the hot phase arrives. Oftentimes when the hot phase comes, one is left with a small bankroll and is then facing an uphill battle to chase losses.

Said in another way, "you can't lose forever."  First you got to recognize that we will win half our bets or real close to it itlr AND pay the juice.  When I have a losing segment, session, shoe, whatever, I say to myself.  Oh good, the game owes me some wins!  Hopefully during that down turn I didn't lose all my ammo!  So when do you know when to begin to fire up a bit?  Ya don't really, you just guess.  Probably your guess is based on a couple of factors.  Perhaps you see the structure of the bet placement you are keying off change and you won a few hands.  This could be a signal to climb back in and regain plus make a profit.  Or maybe you monitor your variance and wait for virtual losses.  Regardless.  You got to have some kind of recoup PLAN on what to try and when to jump in case it fails.  It's called a "grind" for a reason.

Bacc is a MM and betting game.  Bet selection is just to give you structure.  Something to key off so you can recognize a change.  Everyone should know what outcomes they need in the future in order to profit and when those outcomes are not happening then that should be a sign to back off.

A favorite of mine from Stetson Bailey is a variant of the D'Alembert.  He calls it +1,-1 Flat.  I don't use it often AND when I do I'm careful how far to take it.  Increase your lost bet by one unit (a lesser increase if you want) after a loss but when you win stay at the same level for one bet (or more) until you lose then go up again.  This, if done with proper MM can help reduce escalation and recoup some, if not all, the lost units.  Personally I recoup to an acceptable level only and then go back to my normal betting.  I don't find it imperative to always get back every unit I lost in one shot or handful of shots.

J

Funny.  Only 13 voters and 7 actually choose bet selection.  But no comment as to why they think so.  Perhaps they don't mean mechanical bet selection but just mean got to be a good guesser?  Interesting. 

Bet selection for the win.  Same thing in financial markets.  If you can't take winning positions it doesn't matter what your money management is - just faster and slower paths to zero.  Look at sports.  Defense can win championships, but if your offense is so terrible it doesn't matter how good your defense is - unless they are gods that actually play like a killer offense. 

It is theoretically possible for a player to lose every single play they make in a session.

After seeing result of this survey I now understand why so many cats lose, regular, hey hey.

21 Aces, a trader in the financial markets who takes a position also depends on their MM strategies. A trader must win more on wining streaks and lose less on losing streaks or cut its losses. And the statistics from these financial markets show that the percentage of winners are no more than in Baccarat.

Of course bet selection is important. The question is which is more important? Not that bet selection is not necessary. Bet selection has many approaches. If you gather from this forum there are trenders, anti trenders and the random walk theorist (same like the financial markets). And same like the successful financial traders, the ultimate key to success, the difference, if you must, is MM encompassing discipline, humility and patience.

In my humble opinion..... Thank you for reading.

Quote from: soxfan on January 15, 2016, 11:31:56 PM
After seeing result of this survey I now understand why so many cats lose, regular, hey hey.

And what about an approach with flat wagering?

I said it again and I'll say it before; betting flat don't feed the bulldog, hey hey!!!!

Quote from: 21 Aces on January 16, 2016, 12:59:55 AM
And what about an approach with flat wagering?

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 15, 2016, 03:58:37 PM
In Roulette there is no sitting out spins. If you want your seat at the table you must place at least minimum bets. When the hot phase comes, and it always comes eventually, I shift up to attacking bets. In my method, I only have to win the first bet in order to take the big ride upward

It is my experience that you only get one to three hot phases per four-hour gambling session in Roulette. I also play the steady grind upward. It beats the red/black bets just a little so what the heck.

This, along with another recent Gizmotron quote which I will reference soon, is most helpful for professional level play.

I have an alternative view and approach, but hugely respect the honesty and effectiveness of this attitude.

Quote from: XXVV on January 16, 2016, 07:16:24 AM
This, along with another recent Gizmotron quote which I will reference soon, is most helpful for professional level play.

I have an alternative view and approach, but hugely respect the honesty and effectiveness of this attitude.

Yup - a million approaches.  But it doesn't appear that you or Gizmo have actually weighed in on this.

@Gizmo and XXVV:  MM or Bet Selection?

Quote from: Jimske on January 16, 2016, 07:35:52 AM
Yup - a million approaches.  But it doesn't appear that you or Gizmo have actually weighed in on this.

@Gizmo and XXVV:  MM or Bet Selection?

I don't understand the 'million' reference but obviously it is Bet Selection.

MM alone is insufficient, but again will be essential only after correct BS.

The veiled point I am making is that I currently believe it is possible to make ONE successful bet and that is sufficient for a session. There is a set of conditions and the player must wait for the correct opportunity if the session conforms to required conditions. Annoying point - all based on recent short cycle past spins. If the session is suitable there are three levels of success. If the player waits for the best condition, it may take 15-20 mins and the bet is flat staked at high value unit, and consists of three connected consecutive parts. If all succeed there is sufficient profit to quit. Should take 30 mins. Will be writing on this subject SUPERBET in the Blog. This is just a reaction to what I see as reducing the risk exposure to loss in a casino and the sooner the player successfully leaves, the better.

After whichever side reach 10 vote first, the poll will be closed. Then I will assume the result as an AVERAGE opinions. Not for stat fact whatsoever.

Jimske, your comment on my comment that one cannot lose forever. Equally important is that one cannot win forever. Imperative to know when to stop. I have a guide that whenever I lose back 30% of winnings, I should stop. I say 'should' because often the chimp in me over rules me! Sigh!

Quote from: Jimske on January 16, 2016, 07:35:52 AM
Yup - a million approaches.  But it doesn't appear that you or Gizmo have actually weighed in on this.

@Gizmo and XXVV:  MM or Bet Selection?

I'm a both, no option for me in polling. It takes diligent observation of what is trending, sleepers, singles, series, or mix. If I don't react to what is happening I tend to drop like a ski diver. I guess it's like betting the opposite of what's working. Having said that, MM is an essential aspect of it too. Like I said, the stand off bets, bets placed as spot holders for no bet made spins, they don't really count. Otherwise, I have two speeds, grind or attack. My method is mainly win three net wins at grind upward speed and end the session. If I enter an attacking opportunity I hammer it and then end the session. I try for seven winning sessions for a trip to the casinos for a day. If an attacking opportunity occurs then the results are added to the net goal of 21 net wins. So MM has a huge roll to play also.

BTW, I've switched from 24-26 numbers played to 18 numbers played. It's less volatile and makes the end of a successful attacking mode less damaging. It's real easy to lose a lot of progress when you lose a high stakes double dozen bet. The thing to do is to exit the session without greed causing you to give it all back. If you allow adrenaline to drive up the need for dopamine in your head, you can become desensitized to losing big right after a big win. It's like remembering to fly the plane no matter what happens. Remember the hijacker D. B. Cooper? He bailed out in order to avoid getting caught. You must have a session exit strategy, that's MM too. Lung Yeh's lose back rule is a great reason to hit the silk. That's a dopamine killer if I ever saw one. Never take your eyes off the instruments for very long. You might end up flying directly to the scene of the crash.

@Gizmo : But if you have to choose between those two, which one will you consider more important?

Just pick Red or Black, Banker or Player, no grey shaded area.

Please.

Thank you.

Perhaps it would not be incorrect to say that both MM and BS are equally important to be a success. Like the football team example. You cannot win without both good attack and good defense. Similarly in a manufacturing business, you need both the manufacturing side and the marketing side to be good in order to succeed.

@Lung Yeh: dear sir, really spot on!

Quote from: Lung Yeh on January 16, 2016, 02:10:36 PM
Perhaps it would not be incorrect to say that both MM and BS are equally important to be a success. Like the football team example. You cannot win without both good attack and good defense. Similarly in a manufacturing business, you need both the manufacturing side and the marketing side to be good in order to succeed.

If you don't manage your money,
You won't have any.

Quote from: Garfield on January 16, 2016, 02:02:23 PM
@Gizmo : But if you have to choose between those two, which one will you consider more important?

Just pick Red or Black, Banker or Player, no grey shaded area.

Please.

Thank you.

I'll cooperate, but first off, I did make a selection. I selected both. I don't have to choose one over the other.

Having said that, and because I have to, my strategy is MM, it is supported by the data that is gathered from my bet selection process. So I lean MM even though my vote originally was cast as bet selection. So you can change one vote for bet selection and change it to MM.

Incomprehensible!

I would expect Bet Selection to be the number one choice among NON gamblers. Without knowing any better, non gamblers just like beginning gamblers first thought is to a bet that wins more often than it loses. But as soon as the beginning gambler learns, and more importantly, understands what the HE and negative expectation is, then it should dawn on them that it is all about MM.

There is no negative expectation mathematically woven into sports play. Let's skip horse racing and the way sports books are set up. So, ABSOLUTELY NOT, are they both equally important.

To reiterate. All bet selections resolve to a 50/50 state minus the house edge. B or P only, TBL, OTBL, FLD, OLD, column methods, flipping a coin, color the last card, score of winning hand all produce identical W/L registries. In the long run, and in the short run. They will all perform wonderfully and tank just as badly today, and ten weeks from now.

Even if you found the holy grail of bet selections with a predictable W/L registry. You would still be playing a negative expectation game and NEED to employ the proper MM to overcome the HE.

There really is no argument for BS.

What's a bad bet selection? Which BS produces only 1% less wins than its expectation? What BS under performs against its opposite? None of them. ( skip telling me B, commission must be considered, or DP in craps, there is a push)

I've tried to think of one myself. I figured the worst BS for Baccarat is to bet for all B's to be single, forcing me to bet P. And for all P's to at least double. Again forcing me to bet P. Sounds like an awful BS. Knowing that B will double more often than singling, and that P will single more often than doubling. So, consider the opposite, betting that all B's double, that all P's single. Forcing all bets on Banker. Equally unattractive imo. I've got B&M Baccarat cards showing both selections not just tanking horribly, but tanking exactly the same way any other BS can and will tank.

BS can offer no advantage. MM is all that is left.

HBS

PS. I cannot engage in an argument with the roulette people. Law of the Third, hot numbers, cold numbers, cycles withing cycles....this is all outside my area of experience. However, I cannot be faulted for trusting in the math of the game without personally having played it.

HBS

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 16, 2016, 04:23:30 PM
I'll cooperate, but first off, I did make a selection. I selected both. I don't have to choose one over the other.

Having said that, and because I have to, my strategy is MM, it is supported by the data that is gathered from my bet selection process. So I lean MM even though my vote originally was cast as bet selection. So you can change one vote for bet selection and change it to MM.

This is a funny thread.  Perhaps there is some confusion or disagreement.  In my mind if one chooses bet selection it means that they believe that there exists a positive prediction method to win more than lose.  Now it doesn't matter whether that is one such bet or a specific number of series or trials.  There is no need for MM if one has a winning bet selection - just make the bet according to the prediction.  However, that prediction must then be quantified so one can measure the exact expected positive value.

Just to be clear.  My WR is about 52.5%.  But I still cannot predict or tell you why or how to duplicate it.  So I expect over time it will fall back to the EV.
*****************
As I'm typing I see HBS has posted.  He states it far better than I could.  The proof as he suggests is select any two bet selections and see if one actually loses or wins more than the other.  They don't.

I'll tell you why I first voted BS.  It all comes down to timing. House advantage depends on being effective do to timing. The casinos believe that the longer you stay in your seat, the better their chance of beating you is. They don't like players that effectively make use of their time.

I attack when, and only when, I'm in a winning state. It gets called other things here at this forum but what I just said is clear. Knowing when to pounce is bet selection, like it or not. Killing the casino during a very rare elegant pattern is not money management. The house advantage steps out for a smoke during that phenomenon, and so does all losing bets. Remember this, "Effectiveness rewards the prepared mind?"

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 16, 2016, 05:40:26 PM
I'll tell you why I first voted BS.  It all comes down to timing. House advantage depends on being effective do to timing. The casinos believe that the longer you stay in your seat, the better their chance of beating you is. They don't like players that effectively make use of their time.

Okay so isn't timing a predictive element?

Garfield, I just placed my vote for "Bet Selection".

I am of the opinion that there isn't enough money in the world for the player that can't seem to put their chips onto the correct (read: winning) circle on the felt.

My bet selection process has proved its worthiness to me many times over; and, frankly, all I do is trend the current results of the shoe.  No mysticism there whatsoever.  Just an unwavering faith in my ability to read a shoe as it unfolds and as it twists and turns.

As so I vote for "Bet Selection".

That doesn't mean that "Money Management" isn't important; it surely is.  But my bets are, for the most part, rather constricted in nature, and so my money management is more about strategic "exiting" points as much as anything else.  I'll seek to "walk a winner" as often as possible, regardless the amount.  Ain't no money management plan in the world better than that one.

So, bottom line, I trend for a few wins (mixing in a few parlays here and there), lock up my profits and protect (and prevent) too much "give-back" before I "walk the win" to the cashier.

But I couldn't rely much on those "few wins" if i didn't have a solid bet selection process in place; and so I do.

And, as always, I wish it for all of you.

This  whole argument depends on how effective you are at each.  Someone that states money management isn't assuming they are to be a 1-3 on a scale of 1-10 in bet selection and vice versa.

Quote from: soxfan on January 16, 2016, 01:12:19 AM
I said it again and I'll say it before; betting flat don't feed the bulldog, hey hey!!!!

^This is what I kept saying to myself all last night.  FEED THE BULLDOG.  Everyone needs to step up and play to win with a result that matters.

(https://betselection.cc/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fdgicdplf3pvka.cloudfront.net%2Fimages%2Fdogbreeds%2Flarge%2FBulldog.jpg&hash=b370a0609ae34a79e11d8fdfcbdfd716ef738a81)

As Gizmo changed his vote and I don't know how to change the poll's result so I guess I have to wait for BS to reach 11 or the MM reach 10.

:nod:

Quote from: Jimske on January 16, 2016, 05:45:44 PM
Okay so isn't timing a predictive element?

Not really, in my opinion, it's just a guess. It's only backed by an occurring coincidence that happens to be temporarily favorable. They can't make you flat bet. You can back off or attack. They have to stand there and take it. You can hit them with a pillow when they are in casino streak. You can hit them with a sledge hammer when they are in favorable for me streak. That's why both BS & MM equally matter.

I've changed my mind and lock the poll. So the true result is 9 votes for BS and 8 votes for MM. I don't have to write down the math because it means nothing.

First thank you for all the member who has vote and give their opinion.

Frankly I felt like I was asking which come first, the egg or the chicken?  :)) :))

I have been in situation when my losses are greater than my winning, but still I made profit.

Also been in situation when my win greater than the lost but I break even or even losing.

So, frankly I have to admit that this two are equally important. It's like one is your right hand and other is the left. Surely we could survive with only one of them, but two are merrier right?  :cheer:

Other thing I notice that just like everything else, there will be always two side of it. Yin Yang, Black White, Good Bad, Banker Player??

But one thing in common I safely assume that everyone or most of the member will agree. That is we try (or wish?) to win, no matter how. This two only one of so many tools we choose to acomplish the goals.

Thank you again for the participation.

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 16, 2016, 07:12:14 PM
Not really, in my opinion, it's just a guess. It's only backed by an occurring coincidence that happens to be temporarily favorable. They can't make you flat bet. You can back off or attack. They have to stand there and take it. You can hit them with a pillow when they are in casino streak. You can hit them with a sledge hammer when they are in favorable for me streak. That's why both BS & MM equally matter.

Just a guess, right.  I keep on harping on this for a good reason IMO.  This doesn't mean that MM is not important to win but the only reason MM is important is BECAUSE BS is just a guess!  If it wasn't then I as well as the Gr8 one and Asymbac would be most happy to send Lung the rules of the game and Lung would then easily win in perpetuity.  I'm pretty sure Lung would compensate us for that information.  But it would all be short lived because pretty soon the whole world would know and the casinos would either eliminate the game or take some kind or preferential action to thwart.

May I suggest that bet selection means you know the long run future outcome of any next decision or series of next decisions and you can measure it. So if you cannot measure it then you are just guessing.

I'm finished with it.

One more thought of mine,

As many stated that any "mechanical" BS will eventually lost itlr, wouldn't be fair to say that any "mechanical" MM will suffer the same too?

The quest for the holy grail often reffered to BS method, could it be found in MM method? Is there a holy grail for MM?

IMO, I don't think so.

In BS,the factor that affect the most is to have a BS that win more than it lose. Maybe that how we could measure our BS performance in the particular shoe.

For MM, what is the factor to measure? Do we measure our MM by observe how many LIAR it could handle?

 For me ,money management is more important. it's a 50-50 game and the difference between a good bet and bad bet is very small. I like Stetson Baileys ideas betting more on a winner than a loser because generally more losers.  :applause:

Quote from: Dutchie on January 16, 2016, 08:41:03 PM
I like Stetson Baileys ideas betting more on a winner than a loser because generally more losers.

Good one, Dutchie.  I like that idea as well..."betting more on a winner than a loser".

BUUUTTT, here's the problem with that notion:

When we're raising our bet, how in the heck do we ever KNOW that it's going to be a winning bet?

Or, to put it another way:  What do we do if that raised bet loses?  Bet even more?  Does this "Stetson Bailey" play with an unlimited bankroll, and, even more important, have the faith in his selections to pony up big bucks on this next even chance decision after his losses mount.

I mean, think about it....that's what you're saying when you're attempting to "bet more on a winner than a loser".  If you're going to adopt that silliness, you'd darn better KNOW the difference between a losing decision and a winning one....oh, and here's the kicker....you've got to know it in advance.

Silly, isn't it, when you really think about it?  And that very notion gave birth to these long, suicidal negative progressions.

No, the real answer to the "bet selection v. money management" dilemma lies in the CORRECT USAGE of both.  And that means having a proven bet selection process (with a proven "tight variance") AND a proven money management plan BUILT AROUND the variance of that bet selection process.

One last thing:  In my original post in this thread I forgot to mention another VERY IMPORTANT piece of any serious player's money management arsenal:  the "No-Bet".  Very important to "back-off" those shoes (or portions thereof) where your preferred plays are simply not hitting.  See that....I said "back-off", as opposed to "loading up" on our bets, hoping that we're doing so on a winning decision.  The player that keeps "loading up" is the player that simply will not last at this game, especially over the long term.

You see, even when you win those larger-than-normal bets, it's sending you the wrong message.  A message like..."everything will be alright, no matter the losing jag, because you're only one (or a couple) of "big bets" away from bailing yourself out".  That, my friends, is NO WAY TO LIVE at this game.

Much better to keep your bets small.  Unit-wise, I'd say 3 (4 at absolute most) units for any bet.  And, even at that, I'd bet that amount only as a parlay, where, at least, I won the last bet and now my plays might (I say "might") be coming alive.

So I basically use a combination of both a conservative negative prog combined with a conservative positive prog.  And I utilize them as I see fit, based both upon certain stats that I keep and exactly how the current results are going for me.

I play a very subjective game.  A game based upon my vast experience.  For it is ONLY in that that I will trust putting my money onto the felt.  Nothing else.  No "magic" bet placements and no "magic" bet sizes.  Just me and what I think will happen next in this portion of the shoe.  When I'm right, I'll lock up some sort of profit.  When I'm wrong, I'll "back-off" and await my next betting opportunity.  But the absolute last thing I'd ever do is "load up" on my next bet, because I've no true idea if I'd be "betting more on a winner".  Patience....discipline....conservative mm combined with conservative goals....now THAT'S the true/real way to live at this game.

And, as always, I wish it for all of you.  Stay well.

If the bets selections was the primary then I would bet flat with orange chip looking to capture just four of those pumpkin for my daily bread. But, it is my experience that different bs style produce different w/l cluster within the context of the 50-50 proposition. For example say two cats both gonna use the double ZZ but one cat starts with bbpp and the other cat start betting ppbb them two cats are gonna buck up against different w/l cluster. So, you need to match up the right progressions/mm scheme with the right bs style as it ain't a one size fit all proposition, hey hey.

 Hi gr8,thanks for the response,I respect your views.A few things I,'d like to clarify. One I do not continuously bet maybe15-20 bets per shoe. I increase like this 1-1-2-2-3-3-4-4 etc so basically a half unit increase until i am  ahead,then I go back to 1 unit. Half unit is not overloading. I don't know when I will win just like you. I have a stop loss.God  Bless the Gr8. :))











bets per shoe.I increase like this 1-1-2-2-3-3 etc so its basically a half unit progression until I am ahead

Quote from: soxfan on January 16, 2016, 11:34:23 PM
If the bets selections was the primary then I would bet flat with orange chip looking to capture just four of those pumpkin for my daily bread. But, it is my experience that different bs style produce different w/l cluster within the context of the 50-50 proposition. For example say two cats both gonna use the double ZZ but one cat starts with bbpp and the other cat start betting ppbb them two cats are gonna buck up against different w/l cluster. So, you need to match up the right progressions/mm scheme with the right bs style as it ain't a one size fit all proposition, hey hey.

your stating you win 4k a day? i would say impossible, no offense

Quote from: marinetech on January 17, 2016, 12:36:13 AM
your stating you win 4k a day? i would say impossible, no offense

I never claimed to make 4 ks per day, hey hey!

Quote from: gr8player on January 16, 2016, 09:46:55 PM
What do we do if that raised bet loses?  Bet even more?

Yup.  And that is exactly what you do.  Whether you are using your Gr8 progression 1111111222222333333, etc. or double your bet after a losing shoe as you mention.  Just because you happen to keep your increased bet low doesn't mean you are not a progressive bettor.

QuoteSilly, isn't it, when you really think about it?  And that very notion gave birth to these long, suicidal negative progressions.[

Long or short progressions it's all the same principle.  A short progression is not intrinsically more effective than a long progression.  Simply risk vs. reward and table limits.

QuoteI play a very subjective game.  A game based upon my vast experience.  For it is ONLY in that that I will trust putting my money onto the felt.  Nothing else.  No "magic" bet placements and no "magic" bet sizes.

Exactly, just a guess - an educated guess if you will.

Quote from: soxfan on January 16, 2016, 11:34:23 PM
If the bets selections was the primary then I would bet flat with orange chip looking to capture just four of those pumpkin for my daily bread.

Right.  And this is the whole point as to why MM is paramount.  Progressing ones bet is a necessity.  How one progresses is all about MM.

Quote from: soxfan on January 16, 2016, 11:34:23 PMBut, it is my experience that different bs style produce different w/l cluster within the context of the 50-50 proposition. For example say two cats both gonna use the double ZZ but one cat starts with bbpp and the other cat start betting ppbb them two cats are gonna buck up against different w/l cluster. So, you need to match up the right progressions/mm scheme with the right bs style as it ain't a one size fit all proposition, hey hey.

Yes, combining both is the most efficient but since it is a 50-50 proposition one could theoretically have a blind bet selection and just use a MM progression technique to simply bet the W/L results.  The idea of the BS is to break up or avoid the nemesis of that particular selection.

Quote from: gr8player on January 16, 2016, 09:46:55 PM
Good one, Dutchie.  I like that idea as well..."betting more on a winner than a loser".

BUUUTTT, here's the problem with that notion:

When we're raising our bet, how in the heck do we ever KNOW that it's going to be a winning bet?

You parlay on occasion, correct?  That is betting more on a winner than a loser.

Bet selection based on what had happened in the past. Some will said that it's misleading.

IMO MM also based on the same condition. And as the past is misleading to the future result in BS, so will it be in MM.

I should've put the 3rd option / factor which is timing. Jimske will state that this is also useless for it isn't going to change everything.

But IMO, the same BS or MM, applied in different time will bring different output. I meant the result if we played it on hand#xx, will be different with the result on hand#yy.

But the bottom line, everything is 50/50 actually. Our BS / MM might work in some time, migh not work in other time.

And all the bacc do is sitting there, just with one question to solve. Will the next be opposite, or repeat?  :))

Well, Jimske, I got to give it to you there. Those are some excellently constructed posts.


GR8, you surprise me with choosing BS. Until I have reason to believe otherwise I can only believe that you are mistaken here. Aside from benign repetition of the importance of composure, you also stress the importance of a strict MM inside ones own comfort zone, and knowing when to take a win, and/or walk a loser (before losing it all). You may have mentioned choosing a bet selection and sticking with it, avoiding the pitfalls of second guessing yourself, but you have never insisted one find a bet selection that wins more often than it loses.

How could you? It doesn't exist. Even with your 54% win rate, it still doesn't exist. In a complimentary tone, it is your trending of a small handful of bet selections that produces your above average win rate. Phenomenal to say the least, especially considering the amount of time you've been successful with it. You've been pressed before, to provide the mechanical method of your winning. Yes, yes even if you had one it would be absurd to publicize. But you don't have one, you never have, nobody does.

OTBL doesn't hold a positive expectation, neither does a sleeper, or a dominate side regardless of your win rate betting in these conditions. It's your successful trending, or more accurately 'guessing'. It's a guess like Jimske said, nobody knows with certainty. Tracking your variance is smart play, from it you have expectations in the long run, or should we say the medium run. And you still employ a MM scheme. A seven bet mini series.

If bet selection was so important, there would be no MM. We would all flat bet, or bet random amounts, it wouldn't matter, with a positive BS we would eventually win more of an equal distribution of our small, medium, and large bets given enough action. And no, that secret BS would never remain a secret.

Jimske, what you said about theoretically betting a blind BS working an MM off of a W/L registry is exactly correct. Barring Soxfan's input of recognizably different W/L configurations inside the confines of a 50/50 proposition for certain bet selections, it may not be theory at all. I've colored up the same time another punter has colored up with profit and we certainly did not bet the same. Every day people win money at the same game, they aren't all choosing the exact same selection. So it is certain they experienced different W/L string configurations, but were still able to wrest a profit from it. Only MM can be responsible for this.

HBS

Quote from: 21 Aces on January 16, 2016, 06:32:34 PM
This  whole argument depends on how effective you are at each.

The true magic of gambling is the force that prevents us from guessing more than 50% of our bets correctly. The "Yang" of this is the same force also prevents us from guessing more than 50% of our bets incorrectly. There is no argument about how 'effective' anyone is at making a bet selection. WE ARE ALL EQUALLY ADEPT AT IT. It is the one constant all bettors can be measured against for determining how effective you are at utilizing MONEY MANAGEMENT.

Quote from: 21 Aces on January 16, 2016, 06:32:34 PM
Someone that states money management isn't assuming they are to be a 1-3 on a scale of 1-10 in bet selection and vice versa.

We are ALL a FIVE (5) on a scale of 1-10 for bet selection.

HBS

Quote from: Garfield on January 17, 2016, 03:24:10 AM
Bet selection based on what had happened in the past. Some will said that it's misleading.

IMO MM also based on the same condition. And as the past is misleading to the future result in BS, so will it be in MM.

I should've put the 3rd option / factor which is timing. Jimske will state that this is also useless for it isn't going to change everything.

But IMO, the same BS or MM, applied in different time will bring different output. I meant the result if we played it on hand#xx, will be different with the result on hand#yy.

But the bottom line, everything is 50/50 actually. Our BS / MM might work in some time, migh not work in other time.

And all the bacc do is sitting there, just with one question to solve. Will the next be opposite, or repeat?  :))

Quote from: Garfield on January 16, 2016, 07:56:53 PM
One more thought of mine,

As many stated that any "mechanical" BS will eventually lost itlr, wouldn't be fair to say that any "mechanical" MM will suffer the same too?

The quest for the holy grail often reffered to BS method, could it be found in MM method? Is there a holy grail for MM?

IMO, I don't think so.

In BS,the factor that affect the most is to have a BS that win more than it lose. Maybe that how we could measure our BS performance in the particular shoe.

For MM, what is the factor to measure? Do we measure our MM by observe how many LIAR it could handle?

Some very interesting points you've brought up here. Some worth of their own threads. I've spent a little time dwelling on the difference or similarity between a mechanical BS and a mechanical MM. Also, many trenders are belittled for making gut decisions, but I can fathom no difference in making gut decisions with an MM. What prompts a non mechanical parlay recoup? What prompts a non mechanical 'stop bet'? What prompts a non mechanical defensive measure in a lab? It's either mechanical, and therefore programmable, or it's randomly based on instinct.

Now I don't know if you are laughing at me, or laughing at the simplicity of it all. But yeah, strip it all down and see it for what is is. It is either a single event, or a repeated event. KISS comes to mind. I just heard a quote " If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough" (Einstein) That can be changed a bit to " if you can't see the simplicity of it, you cannot understand the whole of it". Trees and forests and whatnot. Fruitless to expend so much energy creating complicated ways to chose either B or P. You will eventually meet your nemesis, and he will have packed a nice lunch of three standard deviations for you to eat.

Measuring MM is also worth of its own thread. How many liar can it handle? Maybe. But I think how many surplus units will it produce before a failure is a better yard stick, irregardless of the number of liar overcome.

HBS

Quote from: HunchBacShrimp on January 17, 2016, 06:00:18 AM


Now I don't know if you are laughing at me, or laughing at the simplicity of it all.

HBS

No way man. I respect all the constructive reply. Should we start the thread you mentioned above?

I noticed that Rolex-Watch has not been posting for some time now. What happened?

Quote from: Garfield on January 17, 2016, 06:17:31 AM
No way man. I respect all the constructive reply. Should we start the thread you mentioned above?

Yeah, that'd be great. I'll be back on sometime tomorrow. It's late here now, I'm about to head to bed.

HBS

Everything boils down to the 50-50 proposition, right. Some cats like to work with the strictly mechanical bs style and other like my own self use a style with some subjectivity involved. In the end everything is a trade off and you MUST use a mm/progression scheme that will match up with the bs style. The john-O claim or used to claim that some mechanical, template bs style is very good at picking off a single win within 4 or 5 decision. If so, then a cat could deploy a 5 step grand marty to grind out the profits. Of course, with my progression/mm a single win within a few decision is worthless as I need to capture a coup of back to back win to profit and reset my parlay progression. On the plus side with my style I can win well and regular winning just 16.66666666 percents of my placed bets. But in the end any style of play is gonna buck up against serious losing streak so in the end, as I have said before it will at times boil down to having the bankroll and the balls to put cake at risk to back up yer play in those worst case scenario. It ain't rocket science, baby, hey hey.

Bet selection and guess work is 50/50 no matter what you do - so i vote for MM/Progression ....

Cheers

Quote from: gr8player on January 16, 2016, 09:46:55 PMDoes this "Stetson Bailey" play with an unlimited bankroll, and, even more important, have the faith in his selections to pony up big bucks on this next even chance decision after his losses mount.

I mean, think about it....that's what you're saying when you're attempting to "bet more on a winner than a loser".  If you're going to adopt that silliness, you'd darn better KNOW the difference between a losing decision and a winning one....oh, and here's the kicker....you've got to know it in advance.

Silly, isn't it, when you really think about it?  And that very notion gave birth to these long, suicidal negative progressions.

No, the real answer to the "bet selection v. money management" dilemma lies in the CORRECT USAGE of both.  And that means having a proven bet selection process (with a proven "tight variance") AND a proven money management plan BUILT AROUND the variance of that bet selection process.

One last thing:  In my original post in this thread I forgot to mention another VERY IMPORTANT piece of any serious player's money management arsenal:  the "No-Bet".  Very important to "back-off" those shoes (or portions thereof) where your preferred plays are simply not hitting.  See that....I said "back-off", as opposed to "loading up" on our bets, hoping that we're doing so on a winning decision.  The player that keeps "loading up" is the player that simply will not last at this game, especially over the long term.

You see, even when you win those larger-than-normal bets, it's sending you the wrong message.  A message like..."everything will be alright, no matter the losing jag, because you're only one (or a couple) of "big bets" away from bailing yourself out".  That, my friends, is NO WAY TO LIVE at this game.

Much better to keep your bets small.  Unit-wise, I'd say 3 (4 at absolute most) units for any bet.  And, even at that, I'd bet that amount only as a parlay, where, at least, I won the last bet and now my plays might (I say "might") be coming alive.

So I basically use a combination of both a conservative negative prog combined with a conservative positive prog.  And I utilize them as I see fit, based both upon certain stats that I keep and exactly how the current results are going for me.

I play a very subjective game.  A game based upon my vast experience.  For it is ONLY in that that I will trust putting my money onto the felt.  Nothing else.  No "magic" bet placements and no "magic" bet sizes.  Just me and what I think will happen next in this portion of the shoe.  When I'm right, I'll lock up some sort of profit.  When I'm wrong, I'll "back-off" and await my next betting opportunity.  But the absolute last thing I'd ever do is "load up" on my next bet, because I've no true idea if I'd be "betting more on a winner".  Patience....discipline....conservative mm combined with conservative goals....now THAT'S the true/real way to live at this game.

And, as always, I wish it for all of you.  Stay well.

HILARIOUS   :sing:

Like an old K-Tel record, please do tell, how is what you do PROVEN?  PROVEN by whom?  Verified by WHOM? 

UNBELIEVABLE, trending a shoe?  I could have swore a month of so ago (when I couldn't be as$ed to respond, that what you posted was a a "never falter bet selection strategy", don't change, don't switch, i swear it sounded mechanical, I would bump the post, but Dulay's eyes will turn red. 

Quote from: Garfield on January 16, 2016, 07:56:53 PM
As many stated that any "mechanical" BS will eventually lost itlr, wouldn't be fair to say that any "mechanical" MM will suffer the same too?

The quest for the holy grail often reffered to BS method, could it be found in MM method? Is there a holy grail for MM?

IMO, I don't think so.

In BS,the factor that affect the most is to have a BS that win more than it lose. Maybe that how we could measure our BS performance in the particular shoe.

For MM, what is the factor to measure? Do we measure our MM by observe how many LIAR it could handle?

Your staking plan needs to be extremely fluid and flexible, any bet selection provides a structure, when and when not to bet, it provides a methodology nothing more and nothing less.   

Imo, MM topic involves several issues (simple progressions, multilevel betting plans, recovering plans, capital utilized per any given session and so on) whereas BS is a more restricted topic.

Nonetheless there's no MM without a kind of BS: trying to follow trends, preordered betting schemes, a mix of the above, looking for a precise outcome into a given amount of martingale trials, playing toward a RTM effect and so on.

Of course a simple progression will work very good on EV+ spots (flat betting positive long term events) and on many "low variance" situations, otherwise we'll be caught sooner or later by the negative edge and by the binomial uncontrollable variance.

In a word and as many have pointed out, no progression could have the best of it but by the contemporary use of some selection adjustments we might lower or erase the negative expectation and naturally enhancing the EV on profitable spots.

I could look at 22-25 or more Bankers in a row, but I know it will be very difficult to have the same 5 sr deviation on many other so called 50/50 spots.

as.   

   

Just realized something. Should it be moneymanagement.cc instead of betselection.cc ??? LoL

Often I see players playing the entire field of tables looking for specific progressions to make bets (That is jumping around).  I have even seen one of the most experienced players call a leveraged bet correctly on a fly by (They didn't bet on it).  I recently saw two $X,XXX one off bets placed on two different developing dragons - one with trend and one against trend.  Surprisingly, the against trend bet won.

I think the strategy can be and is successful for many as they are playing on consistent progressions that they have found to play out favorably, but I would exercise extreme caution on bet size because one can never know.

I change my vote to money management with the following qualification.  Money management can protect a player from taking excessive risk and going 'on tilt'.  If you are crappy at bet selection, but tight on money management, fine - die your death of 1,000 cuts.  At least you exercised control over what you can control.

Some players are very strong on money management always whereas others have excessive risk taking right on tap just waiting for when the chips are down.  Don't be the latter.  From what I have seen all in, placing a wager north of 3-5 units is not smart at all unless you have already well capitalized on a progression and are throwing profit in for the hell of it.

An interesting article:
The Difference Between Bankroll and Money Management

'Bankroll management, on the other hand, is the decision how to stake your selections ONCE you have found a profitable approach. It is when you are winning, that you need to think about how to stake your money, NOT before you have shown that you can turn a profit, using a specific approach by betting level stakes, which is simply, the same amount every bet.'

Continuing on the magic 'When to Stop Playing'

- Within 30 minutes last night I was up a very good amount on an easy progression.
- Thoughts were 'I need a break so leave' vs. 'I have a fast start and let's see what we can do'
- Spent nearly the next 3 hours trading paint and improved the high water mark by a few bets including many shots at high payout bets that were very close (3 card 6 and 8 wins on Bank side for Dragon)
- ATTEMPTED to keep a trailing stop on gains, but a couple bad plays and I gave back 1/3 of it.
- Got into tilt and placed half of the remaining gains at risk at a table I just walked up to with a decent progression (and one of my favorite dealers FML).  Won it 9-7 Natural vs. Natural Bank wins.
- Stopped near initial gain mark noted in first comment.

A fast start with 30 minutes of play and a very good result may have led to a decision to stop playing and leave from both a bet selection and money management view.  One could have easily laid in heavier during it, but that is harder to do when you just show up.  Setting money management based stops on the down and upside and looking at time of play can all be part of how one plays.  If you score a personal best or are way up versus usual, maybe its best to lock it in.  If you have little time left then consider that.

STRONG PLAYERS DON'T GIVE A F AND WIN, WIN, WIN! LEAVE, STAY EASY SHOE, DIFFICULT SHOE - WIN.

This is your bank roll - Use it and feed the bulldog.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8a/US_Navy_050315-N-3241H-001_The_Nimitz-class_aircraft_carrier_USS_Carl_Vinson_(CVN_70)_underway_in_the_Indian_Ocean_prior_to_flight_operations.jpg)

both.

Which one is better?

1. Start with full unit size from play one.
2. Build profit with bets lower than full unit size to provide an extra margin and then play full unit size.

Quote from: 21 Aces on April 16, 2016, 11:04:06 PM
Which one is better?

1. Start with full unit size from play one.
2. Build profit with bets lower than full unit size to provide an extra margin and then play full unit size.

Without no verified edge, mathematically the first option is preferable.

as. 

My strike rates are very high during win back mode conditions.  My bets tend to be bigger as well in those times and pressure is like a hammer.  There have been times where I capture that performance and zone from the start, but I want to do that more consistently.

BTW, the biggest performances in a night I have seen so far are from players starting with around 10-15 large that push into deep five, even six figures of win.  Definitely shocking to see and strong Bank/ Player hand is juiced by high payout bet wins.

I won't get into the bet selection process, it is too personal and too many beliefs.  But here IMO:

IF YOU WIN:

1/3, 1/3, 1/3.  And 1-3-2-6 on the progressions. 

Again, not touching the B.S. process.  VooDoo, Magic, rub the stuffed animal in your wife's purse, hold your lucky rabbit's foot key chain, whatever.  Dragon's trail belief and all that.  If you are winning.

Set an amount like double your bankroll, triple, quadruple it, whatever. 

Then do the 1/3rd for your new bankroll, take 1/3 lock it up and have the will power not to use it, take the other 1/3rd and use it as a reserve bankroll if you go bust-----AND----still try once again. 

You will be a winner and walk a winner if you have the willpower.  If you don't have the willpower, nothing will help you no matter what you employ. 

And, if you straight lose from the beginning of your buy in, no matter what your bankroll, chances are you will not get up and walk and call it a day.  So, best to stop trying to figure what the magic numbers are for walking away a loser from the beginning.  If you lost enough times after winning (I said after winning) then you can understand my system above, if you have not, you will not understand it.  Lose more and then re-read it.

Nothing better than betting consistently and clipping a strong strike rate.  Watch the chips move fast in your direction with controlled risk. One day I want to get good enough that I am not always looking around scavenging and take on the most difficult shoes.

Send us into the worst. Is that all you have?

There are times where I am doing the exact opposite so I should call everyone over to play against...

BUMP

BUMP -

FIGURES THAT THE CURRENT VOTE WOULD BE 15 - 15 TIE ON A TIE LINE.

(https://betselection.cc/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cutestpaw.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F12%2FFist-bump-by-kitten.jpg&hash=b7124680357398d80a89f39261901641f2299e38)

I'm shocked that this poll ain't 80-20, at least, in favor of the mm/progression, hey hey.

Quote from: soxfan on December 06, 2016, 09:53:22 PM
I'm shocked that this poll ain't 80-20, at least, in favor of the mm/progression, hey hey.

I will review my previous posts later, but when I practice it is very evident to see times where my strike rate is lower than 50%, but still win because I bet different sizes  based on confidence level and the player statistics are automatically being recorded.