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Topic: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac  (Read 3555 times)

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Offline Lugi

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Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2018, 09:55:36 PM »
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  • No mechanical system can beat Baccarat. But some believe that a flexible system, "Follow the Shoe (FTS)" can beat Baccarat. As its name implies, you bet according to what the shoe is doing. It is claimed that some have become millionaires playing Baccarat, using this approach.

    I'm just winding down after a successful jaunt at the tables. "No mechanical system can beat Baccarat" I am confidently going to disagree with you over this one.  Early days at the moment, fairly confident I've got the better of this game.  It's only taken a decade trials, tribulations and some losses on the way. Yes I know it is a bold statement, however having dabbled with a math based approach over the last month, this is the strongest methodology I've produced in close on 15 years of study of this bloody frustrating game.

    This does not mean I can predict any single winning hand, otherwise I would go "all in".  My approach has always been to control the LIARs, for me to lose 4 in a row is rare.  Yes 4LAIR, is an extremely rare event.  Occasionally I do see it, say once per session, 6~8 shoes, even if it happened twice, it is no sweat, merely a buggeration factor.   

    Downside, is not enough betting opportunities per shoe, so I'm having to introduce other triggers which are not as robust.   Where I play, they burn cards at the start of a shoe and cut a whole deck at the back cos' they are paranoia fcukwits about the likes of John May counting the super egalite Fortune 8 side-bet, so I'm only getting on average 65~70 hands per shoe.

    If I could get close to 80 hands then I could unequivocally state the game is well and truly beat, as a shoe would have to defy mathematical odds of 512/1  'after a trigger' presents itself for a short series of 50/50 propositions, it simply doesn't happen, however always remains possible. 

    It is so rare, you could play for literally months and you'll never see it, alas I am having to make do with the 256/1 iteration, which also is strong, but have a gut feeling the '512' version would be unbeatable, as well as possibly being unplayable as a stand-a-lone method, you need to introduce other triggers to maintain game interest. 

    As always MM is paramount, because it is based on winning a bet within a series of bets, plus you just never know!!!   YES, it is 100% mechanical, it has no bearing on what the shoe is doing or what pattern has transpired or might transpire.  It is based on  treating Banker and Player results like binary outcomes and applying combinatorial probability.....


    Offline Blue_Angel

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #31 on: November 10, 2018, 04:26:59 AM »
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  • You are a GREAT LIAR! ;D
    ''For after all what is man in nature?
    A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
    The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
    He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal

    Offline Lugi

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #32 on: November 10, 2018, 04:52:18 AM »
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  • You are GREAT AT CONTROLLING THE LIARs! ;D

    I've fixed that for you.  :P

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #33 on: November 10, 2018, 10:21:48 AM »
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  • Express all thoughts, experiences and theories (you have actually tried in a B&M live table) by all means!

    However, I still hold true to the bottom line removing all M.M., Money Allocation and types of wagers, etc. 

    Whatever anyone comes up with as a 'schedule' to bet, meaning: "I will wager on the cut/opposite side after 3 in a row, or I will wager on the cut/opposite side after 5 in a row when it makes those", or "I will wager on the repeat after so and so", etc., or anything else no matter what the 'schedule' might be, it will eventually do one of two things to your buy-in, bank roll or total available gambling funds. 

    1)  It will either retake all your winnings and cycle you through wins and losses that will only be sustained by a large enough bankroll/total available gambling funds;

    2)  Take everything you have and whatever you re-fuel your bankroll/total available gambling funds with.

    I stand by that. 
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

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    Offline Bally6354

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #34 on: November 10, 2018, 10:55:17 AM »
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  • You are a GREAT LIAR! ;D

    BlueAngel,

     Not that I need to speak up for Lugi, but this guy is pretty much as straight as a die and it's always worth reading/considering his posts because of the experience he has. Actually, he is one of the few posters I respect 100% and I am sure a few others who know what time of day it is concur as well.

    Cheers
    Gambling is not an exact science. It's not for people who like clear black and white figures. It is for the artist who has a sense of stats and who can deal with fuzzy things.

    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #35 on: November 10, 2018, 02:43:17 PM »
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  • I'm just winding down after a successful jaunt at the tables. "No mechanical system can beat Baccarat" I am confidently going to disagree with you over this one.  Early days at the moment, fairly confident I've got the better of this game.
    At this point it do well to mention number of trials in order to qualify what "early days" means.  By using this phrase one would assume there is not even a modicum of trials for one to take the claim that you "got the better" seriously.
    Quote
    It's only taken a decade trials, tribulations and some losses on the way. Yes I know it is a bold statement, however having dabbled with a math based approach over the last month, this is the strongest methodology I've produced in close on 15 years of study of this bloody frustrating game.

    This does not mean I can predict any single winning hand, otherwise I would go "all in".  My approach has always been to control the LIARs, for me to lose 4 in a row is rare.  Yes 4LAIR, is an extremely rare event.  Occasionally I do see it, say once per session, 6~8 shoes, even if it happened twice, it is no sweat, merely a buggeration factor.
    Yes, changing the W/L registry would certainly be the holy grail.  As it is the expected LIAR for 4LIAR is about 2.3 occurrences per 75 hands.  This regardless whether you use closed shoe or continue to next.
    Quote

    Downside, is not enough betting opportunities per shoe, so I'm having to introduce other triggers which are not as robust.   Where I play, they burn cards at the start of a shoe and cut a whole deck at the back cos' they are paranoia fcukwits about the likes of John May counting the super egalite Fortune 8 side-bet, so I'm only getting on average 65~70 hands per shoe.
    "other triggers"  ??  The word "trigger" condors up a specific occurrence which then suggests some pattern which can be defined even though you insist not a pattern . . everything has a pattern regardless of the frequency.  Remember the title 1 Million Random Numbers and Their Normal Deviates?  there's always patterns.  So then you apparently have several of these patterns which ocurr infrequently but each trigger has its own win % no doubt?  Have you determined the different math advantage?

    Quote
    If I could get close to 80 hands then I could unequivocally state the game is well and truly beat, as a shoe would have to defy mathematical odds of 512/1  'after a trigger' presents itself for a short series of 50/50 propositions, it simply doesn't happen, however always remains possible. 

    It is so rare, you could play for literally months and you'll never see it, alas I am having to make do with the 256/1 iteration, which also is strong, but have a gut feeling the '512' version would be unbeatable, as well as possibly being unplayable as a stand-a-lone method, you need to introduce other triggers to maintain game interest. 

    As always MM is paramount, because it is based on winning a bet within a series of bets, plus you just never know!!!   YES, it is 100% mechanical, it has no bearing on what the shoe is doing or what pattern has transpired or might transpire.  It is based on  treating Banker and Player results like binary outcomes and applying combinatorial probability.....
    Don't need much MM if you can keep LIAR to 4 !!

    I'm confused here.  Are you saying the "combinatorial probability" only occurs every few  months?  Binary outcomes sounds like patterns to me.  How about Baccarat Code or Baccarat Pairs, both of which use computational probability to predict (read guess).

    J




    Offline Lugi

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #36 on: November 11, 2018, 02:51:49 AM »
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  • BlueAngel,

     Not that I need to speak up for Lugi, but this guy is pretty much as straight as a die and it's always worth reading/considering his posts because of the experience he has. Actually, he is one of the few posters I respect 100% and I am sure a few others who know what time of day it is concur as well.

    Cheers
    Nice one, glad to see you know what time of day it is ;-)

    Express all thoughts, experiences and theories (you have actually tried in a B&M live table) by all means!

    However, I still hold true to the bottom line removing all M.M., Money Allocation and types of wagers, etc. 

    Whatever anyone comes up with as a 'schedule' to bet, meaning: "I will wager on the cut/opposite side after 3 in a row, or I will wager on the cut/opposite side after 5 in a row when it makes those", or "I will wager on the repeat after so and so", etc., or anything else no matter what the 'schedule' might be, it will eventually do one of two things to your buy-in, bank roll or total available gambling funds. 

    1)  It will either retake all your winnings and cycle you through wins and losses that will only be sustained by a large enough bankroll/total available gambling funds;

    2)  Take everything you have and whatever you re-fuel your bankroll/total available gambling funds with.

    I stand by that.
    Nope, can't agree at all, what you are describing is a failure of some sort of methodology.

    IMO the reason for many small wins and huge single catastrophic loss that consumes the many small wins, is down to the individual not always the methodology.  Lack of control, frustration, over confidence, time constraints, wanting to speed up a prior recoup. The reasons can be many, but generally it is the player, not the method which is the reason for the rinse and repeat of giving it back.

    I would post more, but i'm buggered at the mo, over 12 hours in a casino, does my head head in, but I simply can't get out of betting conservative mode, hence it takes me a long time to rake in 100% of my buyin. I play it safe, too safe.  I really need to catch up on some ZZZZ'zz's then I will post more as well as answering Jim's post. 

    FYI I've played this method now for approx 50 ~70 shoes, I don't need to play 300 ~ 400 shoes to be able to form an opinion of it, it makes perfect logical sense (which I'll explain with a simple analogy) and requires a bit of creative thinking in order to make it playable.


    I'll leave you with this;

    Take 256 balls, numbered 1 through 265.  Place them in a bag.  Remove 1 ball and record it's number and return the ball to the bag.

    Repeat the exercise 8 times only.  How often do you think out of 256 different numbered balls, will you expect to pick  the same numbered ball twice, more than twice within the 8 picks??

    "I'll be back" later..




    I just want to add, as I did elude to it in an earlier post.

    Once you thought about the 256 balls analogy, just imagine instead of 256 balls, there were 512 balls in the bag.  Wow, it's slam dunk, "game over".  Alas not for me, I don't have that privilege.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #37 on: November 11, 2018, 11:52:50 AM »
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  • Second paragraph you wrote about the individual, I have wrote extensively about in detail in the series of 10 posts, in my highlighted section under my blog you're correct and I detailed it out.

    It is always going to be about the individual interpreting how he should wager

    Always, and  I still stand fast and everybody that's played for decades will tell you, that scheduled wagering will only Break Even or lose money, you will never win money in baccarat over a period of years, with the same schedule of wagers.

    It is always about the individual and how the individuals sees what is happening at the time it is happening.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Bally6354

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #38 on: November 11, 2018, 12:53:48 PM »
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  • Less is more when considering how to cut down on LIAR. I prefer to go for one bite of the cherry and take the win or loss. Attempting to ride a run guarantees you are going to end on a loss. Personally, I wouldn't contemplate looking for or betting on weaker triggers when a specific bet placement in whatever shape it arrives is a strong one. Then again, it could get pretty damn boring sitting there twiddling your thumbs for most of the shoe. Luckily Genting have these terminals which are linked to the live dealer now similar to their linked roulette tables. You don't feel as awkward sitting there waiting for a bet.
    Gambling is not an exact science. It's not for people who like clear black and white figures. It is for the artist who has a sense of stats and who can deal with fuzzy things.

    Offline Lugi

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #39 on: November 11, 2018, 01:59:40 PM »
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  • Briefly, 

    At this point it do well to mention number of trials in order to qualify what "early days" means.
    I've been dabbling with this at the tables for approx 170 shoes since the beginning of Oct, starting off with 128/1 iteration, which is no where as robust as 256/1 for obvious reasons.

    Yes, changing the W/L registry would certainly be the holy grail.  As it is the expected LIAR for 4LIAR is about 2.3 occurrences per 75 hands.

    Absolutely, I give you credit for getting me to focus on controlling the LIARs. I would have expected 4LIAR to occur approx once per 64 hands, as there exists 16 x 4 hand combinations, which equates to 64 decisions in total, but this merely semantics.

      The word "trigger" condors up a specific occurrence which then suggests some pattern which can be defined even though you insist not a pattern .
    To avoid sitting at the table and in a worst case scenario placing NIL BETS for an entire shoe, while other players may be milking it, and you're looking stupid, I've had to introduce other bet options, these are my triggers.

    I've played around with a few options, some turn out rubbish and are ditched.  The 3 I'm using at the mo' include, Birthday Paradox, risking 4 bets to win 1, bet the cut after a minimum of a 4 streak (could be a streak of 6 or 8, all depends how it falls), again risking 4 bets to win 1, Ditto bet for a repeat against a series of 4 chops minimum, risk 4 to win 1.  And anything that might take my fancy when I do glance a the score board (usually betting against the continuance of something).

    I'm confused here.  Are you saying the "combinatorial probability" only occurs every few  months?  Binary outcomes sounds like patterns to me.  How about Baccarat Code or Baccarat Pairs, both of which use computational probability to predict (read guess).
    I was guessing that if it was possible to incorporate the 512/1 iteration (this would be possible where the game is endless and dealt from a CSM machine, I know of two casinos that offer this).   I'm guessing that the player would encounter any trigger failures, but I really don't know because playing this way is not an option of me.  I'm not converting or thinking of patterns when I need to bet, rather focusing on which side.



    Following on from my early morn' post, there are enough 'bright sparks' on this board able to figure out, when I mention 128/1, 256/1 and 512/1, the number of decisions involved for each scenario. 

    This leaves you the player with a few issues still to resolve;

    ONE - You can't be expected to having to bet X many times in order to win one single bet, such an approach is just not feasible. You need to be creative to solve this issue.

    TWO - You can't take to the table a bet methodology, not matter how robust it appears, that has you the player, betting once, twice, 3, 4 times, or even NIL times for any given shoe. Your patience won't hold up.  If the Trigger fails, you could be waiting around a long time for a recoup.  So once again, you need to put on your creative hat and find ways that a shoe can potentially create more bet opportunities than it normally would, this is not that difficult, however the 512/1 option a non-starter for me, thanks to Genting's paranoia of people counting the fortune 8 side-bet.

    Due to some shoes presenting very few bet opportunities, I've also had to included 3 other triggers, as described above, basically I can't occupying a seat on a busy table and not be placing bets.  At the half way point of a shoe, you are able to figure how many potential bet opportunities will present themselves for the remainder of the shoe, if it's really low (1 or 2) and there is a new shoe starting elsewhere, I may bail and start afresh.

    MM is a major issue, yet 4LAIR sounds very manageable, but IMO is isn't, I've probably jumped ahead of myself.  Let me clarify; this 256/1 bet option, while it hardly ever fails, it does occasionally, this will cost me 4 losing bets, which is nothing,  Back to back failures are super rare.  Yet after a single failure and 4LIAR, when the next trigger presents itself, your expectation is to win within 4 bets, not the very next bet placed.

    Therefore 4LIAR could be followed by another 1, 2 or 3LIARs.  Hence why I stated MM is still paramount.  Add to to mix to additional bet opportunities to justify sitting down, sh1t sometimes happens.  I sometimes play around with different MM values, with a higher chip value kicking in after 2L, while this spreads the load, it can be problematic trying having to wait for 2L before betting the higher value chips.  MM is still work in progress for me.   Incidentally  I am of the view that nobody, not even system sellers should never instruct or suggest how others should or need to do with their money, this is a individual matter.  Suffice to say, I personally use a multiple hybrid version of Johnson's Labby, because it offers me the most flexibility and control.

    Again, I point to the 256 balls in a bag analogy, it doesn't require much acceptance, that the same number coming out twice inside 8 attempts would be a rare event, you can exploit and turn this proven mathematically fact with a bit of tweaking into a rock-solid bet methodology.

     

    Offline Lugi

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #40 on: November 11, 2018, 02:19:21 PM »
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  • Second paragraph you wrote about the individual, I have wrote extensively about in detail in the series of 10 posts, in my highlighted section under my blog you're correct and I detailed it out.

    It is always going to be about the individual interpreting how he should wager

    Always, and  I still stand fast and everybody that's played for decades will tell you, that scheduled wagering will only Break Even or lose money, you will never win money in baccarat over a period of years, with the same schedule of wagers.

    It is always about the individual and how the individuals sees what is happening at the time it is happening.

    You are way to active here for me to be aware of all your postings, I'm sure you have covered every thing about the game from your prospective and beliefs.

    Just so you are aware, I've played for a few decades, some stand still, some don't rest on what they know and keep striving.

    I don't agree about it being about what the individual sees,  every single casino visit, I see players, get ahead, feeling good the guessed a few decisions right, I could count on one hand and ll have 5 fingers spare those that leave in profit.  When things turn sour, they lose it, table hop, then their "what is the shoe doing now" goes to pot. .

    I can only state my opinion, playing the game of Baccarat with no bet methodology, rather relying on the score board is a DISASTER waiting to happen, like I say, it is just my opinion, take it or leave it.  The score board is for newbies that know no better and / or have no alternative (been there done that).     Those few players that I've suggested mechanical ways (pattern capturing) to play, be it as simple as betting DBL, have thanked me, stating, it takes away the useless mentally draining pressure of having to guess.  Yes I also informed them of the nemesis of DBL.  Casinos (in particular the greedy one I play at) love it that the punters simply have no clue. The young Chinese overseas students, blowing literally tens of thousands gambling instead of studying.


    Offline Blue_Angel

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #41 on: November 11, 2018, 02:42:20 PM »
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  • There is something better than Johnson's progression, the side you bet doesn't matter, but perhaps you might prefer the "player" for commission free profit.


    For every 10 lost bets (more than your wins), raise by 1 unit.
    Half wins  of your total lost bets will fully recover any losses that far.


    For example, say you lost 60 bets and won 30, after 10 first lost bets the BR is -10 (1 unit x 10 losses), after the second 10 losses your balance would be -30 (2 units x 10 losses plus -10 previous debt), after the third 10 losses the balance would be -60 (10+20+30) because you've lost 10 more times by 3 units.
    Therefore, in such occasion you would bet now 4 units, thus the -60 from 30 more losses would be wiped out by 15 wins (4 units x 15 wins = 60), however, the overall W/L registry would indicate that you still have 15 losses more than wins (30-15=15).


    No matter how many losses you suffer on the way, you'd always need HALF as much in total in order to recover any drawdowns.
    ''For after all what is man in nature?
    A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
    The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
    He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #42 on: November 11, 2018, 03:22:08 PM »
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  • I wrote from reality and experience the 10 articles, all posted within my Blog, 1 to 10 in a series of 10.  First page. Highlighted section. 

    I am sorry you think I'm too active here and I write too much you know what I will be certain to stop the writing, thank you, good luck.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #43 on: November 11, 2018, 04:48:34 PM »
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  • Less is more when considering how to cut down on LIAR. I prefer to go for one bite of the cherry and take the win or loss. Attempting to ride a run guarantees you are going to end on a loss. Personally, I wouldn't contemplate looking for or betting on weaker triggers when a specific bet placement in whatever shape it arrives is a strong one. Then again, it could get pretty damn boring sitting there twiddling your thumbs for most of the shoe. Luckily Genting have these terminals which are linked to the live dealer now similar to their linked roulette tables. You don't feel as awkward sitting there waiting for a bet.
    LOL.  Yeah, can feel pretty unintelligent watching a 12IAR go by while everyone is taking in the rack BUT. . . also LOL; we find most times everyone else is doing the same!

    I don't think Luigi is looking at following P/B runs as we normally understand them.  But yeah, one bite makes sense however I think it will take a few bites.

    J

    Offline Bally6354

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #44 on: November 11, 2018, 05:02:26 PM »
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  • Here is something I was just looking at. I was running off 100 shoes on the BB2 Simulator and looking to see how many times on average you get a sequence of any 9 results.

    In the following example, the sequence is BBBBPPPPP and it came out 11 times.

    13141-0

    So how about if you waited for any BBB combination and then bet against the remaining BPPPPP with PBBBBB. It would cost you 63 units on a failed attempt.

    How many times did BBB appear?

    872 times was the answer!

    13143-1

    It's more of just thinking out loud rather than anything else based on what Lugi posted.

    Gambling is not an exact science. It's not for people who like clear black and white figures. It is for the artist who has a sense of stats and who can deal with fuzzy things.