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Topic: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac  (Read 3554 times)

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Offline Jimske

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Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
« Reply #45 on: November 11, 2018, 05:06:04 PM »
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  • and everybody that's played for decades will tell you,
    What's funny is I play similar to you - I guess too.  The difference may be that I will start with a regimen and if winning will stay with it until it breaks down.  When it does I will either quit winner OR guess FTS to recoup if it din't pan out from the get go . . .like that.

    Maybe you'll ban me again . . .fine . . . but the arrogance of that statement which I quoted above is just too much for me to ignore.  Very "trumpian."  Glen, there is absolutely no evidence that "everybody" is of the same opinion.  Yet in one sentence you have relegated anyone who might disagree to insignificance. 


    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #46 on: November 11, 2018, 05:17:46 PM »
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  • Luigi, I'm starting to understand what you mean by combinations since you invoked Birthday Paradox.  You're not D. E. are you?

    I was looking at some of his writings and methods based on Birthday Paradox and also some of Dr. Tom's stuff, which like some others, attempts to break down the B and P outcomes from a whole different perspective.  One such one from my old friend and partner was Ultimate Baccarat where he interpreted the B and P as OTBL ("O's") and TBL ("S's").  When one gets into permutations of sets there is a math based outcome that can be exploited with appropriate MM.

    J

    Offline Lugi

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #47 on: November 11, 2018, 06:17:20 PM »
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  • There is something better than Johnson's progression, the side you bet doesn't matter, but perhaps you might prefer the "player" for commission free profit.


    For every 10 lost bets (more than your wins), raise by 1 unit.
    Half wins  of your total lost bets will fully recover any losses that far.


    For example, say you lost 60 bets and won 30, after 10 first lost bets the BR is -10 (1 unit x 10 losses), after the second 10 losses your balance would be -30 (2 units x 10 losses plus -10 previous debt), after the third 10 losses the balance would be -60 (10+20+30) because you've lost 10 more times by 3 units.
    Therefore, in such occasion you would bet now 4 units, thus the -60 from 30 more losses would be wiped out by 15 wins (4 units x 15 wins = 60), however, the overall W/L registry would indicate that you still have 15 losses more than wins (30-15=15).


    No matter how many losses you suffer on the way, you'd always need HALF as much in total in order to recover any drawdowns.

    That's great, cheers for this.  A lot of stuff I read doesn't appeal, but this is right down my alley, thank you, this is something I could and probably will make use of once i digest it further. It may come in handy when either having to play solo, or just to maintain interest by placing bets, i.e DBL, or FLD.  At the moment I use the STAR progression when required.

    LOL.  Yeah, can feel pretty unintelligent watching a 12IAR go by while everyone is taking in the rack BUT. . . also LOL; we find most times everyone else is doing the same!

    I don't think Luigi is looking at following P/B runs as we normally understand them.  But yeah, one bite makes sense however I think it will take a few bites.

    J
    I agree, I don't think it is possible to gain an advantage over a single outcome, I think it is possible within a short series of bets, yet still won't be 100%.

    I wrote from reality and experience the 10 articles, all posted within my Blog, 1 to 10 in a series of 10.  First page. Highlighted section. 

    I am sorry you think I'm too active here and I write too much you know what I will be certain to stop the writing, thank you, good luck.
    I've seen some of your musing, your opinions maybe valued and appreciated by others, same applies to a lot of posts everywhere, I don't feel compelled to read them all.  I'm more interested in the maths stuff, oh and interesting gambling tales, I skim a lot. 

    I won't name names, but some posters I keep an eye open for, as I sometimes find titbits of interest.  I'm sure there is a lot of good stuff on his board which I have missed, that is okay, no harm in that, time is precious.  Don't let my lack on interest and odd appearance here  influence your contributions to the board.  I don't visit this or any other forums on a regular basis, but thought I'd share a bit of direction, which was down to feeling overtly optimistic switching from 128/1 to 256/1.   The former occasionally gave me grief, the latter has yet to.


    Offline Lugi

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #48 on: November 11, 2018, 06:28:24 PM »
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  • Here is something I was just looking at. I was running off 100 shoes on the BB2 Simulator and looking to see how many times on average you get a sequence of any 9 results.

    In the following example, the sequence is BBBBPPPPP and it came out 11 times.

    (Attachment Link)

    So how about if you waited for any BBB combination and then bet against the remaining BPPPPP with PBBBBB. It would cost you 63 units on a failed attempt.

    How many times did BBB appear?

    872 times was the answer!

    (Attachment Link)

    It's more of just thinking out loud rather than anything else based on what Lugi posted.

    Nice one, what was the closest repeat gap between the 11 occurrences?

    I'm not using sets of 9 results because it won't generate enough betting opportunities unless the shoe consists of "close to 80 hands"  No way Gent's shoes will achieve that. 

    Just a couple of pointers regarding your suggestion, you are risking too many bets attempting to win a single bet, hence the 63 unit loss when it doesn't work, nope.  While it could be an option, I don't use any form of pre-defined sequence, then bet against it appearance. 

    Offline Lugi

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #49 on: November 11, 2018, 06:37:07 PM »
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  • What's funny is I play similar to you - I guess too.  The difference may be that I will start with a regimen and if winning will stay with it until it breaks down.  When it does I will either quit winner OR guess FTS to recoup if it din't pan out from the get go . . .like that.

    Maybe you'll ban me again . . .fine . . . but the arrogance of that statement which I quoted above is just too much for me to ignore.  Very "trumpian."  Glen, there is absolutely no evidence that "everybody" is of the same opinion.  Yet in one sentence you have relegated anyone who might disagree to insignificance.

    I probably should have given it more time before responding to Alrelax.  Those that play to what the shoe is doing, A Chinese guy killed my small local casino over a decade ago on over two night to the tune of 120k, I posted about it elsewhere at the time, it was a freak thing, cos he gave it all back in another city soon afterwards.  I appreciate Jim successfully plays this way, I've observed a couple of Chinese regulars overseas  successfully manage playing this way with a degree of consistency, other than the four I've mentioned.  I've seen players get seriously ahead, none of which can maintain it, or reproduce it on a regular basis.

       

    Offline Lugi

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #50 on: November 11, 2018, 06:45:34 PM »
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  • Luigi, I'm starting to understand what you mean by combinations since you invoked Birthday Paradox.  You're not D. E. are you?

    I was looking at some of his writings and methods based on Birthday Paradox and also some of Dr. Tom's stuff, which like some others, attempts to break down the B and P outcomes from a whole different perspective.  One such one from my old friend and partner was Ultimate Baccarat where he interpreted the B and P as OTBL ("O's") and TBL ("S's").  When one gets into permutations of sets there is a math based outcome that can be exploited with appropriate MM.

    J
    Birthday Paradox is one of the optional addons, I like it because it is based on maths. I#ve played BP by itself, which is not so great.  I'm aware of Ultimate Baccarat, you sent it to me back in 2016 :-)  I bet using Sterling, not Dollars, different hemisphere. 

    Offline Bally6354

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #51 on: November 12, 2018, 09:47:09 AM »
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  • Nice one, what was the closest repeat gap between the 11 occurrences?


    Shoes 6, 7, 8, 14, 26, 27, 28, 55, 65, 83 and 91 all produced one sequence only of BBBBPPPPP. Running a few tests shows the average for a 9 hand sequence hovers around 11-12 with it going as low as 7 and as high as 15. I like to crunch the stats because things tend to come out fairly uniform over 100 shoes. For example...The BBB came out 857 times in my example above. This 850 average give or take a few is also consistent over 100 shoes for any 3 hand combination (excluding the ties) Can any of this help? I don't really know! I think Jimske and yourself have already alluded to the grail in an attempt to cut down on the LIAR. That's where the real gold lies.
    Gambling is not an exact science. It's not for people who like clear black and white figures. It is for the artist who has a sense of stats and who can deal with fuzzy things.

    Offline Bally6354

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #52 on: November 12, 2018, 10:03:11 AM »
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  • Just touching on the LIAR.

    Here is a shoe.... P121311221121113111134121211114.

    Here are my bets in sections.

    Section 1.
    W
    W* no bet
    L no bet

    Section 2.
    W
    L no bet

    Section 3.
    W
    W* no bet
    W* no bet
    W* no bet

    Section 4.
    L no bet

    Section 5.
    W
    W* no bet
    W* no bet
    W* no bet
    L no bet

    If I bet everything, I am +6. By just taking one bite at the cherry, I am +4. Is there really that much difference when I can flat-bet and still win. Well, not in my opinion.  Because what about the day when you don't get those runs of 3/4. On saying that, this shoe was pretty smooth. You can develop framework for when shoes shoot all over the place and bet accordingly but the key IMO is keeping those LIAR down to as low a figure as you can and also not forgetting that less is more in relation to how many bets you actually place.

    cheers
    Gambling is not an exact science. It's not for people who like clear black and white figures. It is for the artist who has a sense of stats and who can deal with fuzzy things.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #53 on: November 12, 2018, 06:09:28 PM »
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  • "Negative Progressions and Negative Frame-of-Mind (2 of 10 in a Series)
                                                     
    I am putting down my thoughts here based on reading the past couple of days.  I truly feel players going in a casino with the attitude/belief, "I can always get whatever I lose back by negative progression", is truly harmful.  Unless and only unless you are at a $10.00 min table and you are only wager the $10.00 or $20.00 and you have a reserved buy-in and you are ready, willing and 100% able with risking the sums of $5,100.00 and $10,200.00 respectively, to attempt 8 progressions to recoup your $10.00 or $20.00 lost. I say 8 attempts is what needs to be planned to prevail on a negative progression, not 6 or 7. 

    But to me, that energy, that feeling, that risk is absurd!  And it will play on almost everyone's mind, almost.  That buy-in bankroll can and should be used for other things and reserving it for positive events rather than the negativity and related effects losing has on most all players.  Those that believe in it and those that do it, I think the, "can't retract", or the "stick to your guns", and those types of overpowering and controlling thoughts set in. 

    While positive progressions are a very vital part of making profit while winning, any kind of negative progression to break even or obtain a small profit is extremely dangerous. 

    So, personally I forget about the smaller losses of $100--$250--$500, etc., and concentrate on the winning progressions which will far and beyond, make-up for the losses I had, if I win.  If I lose I will also lose with the negative progression.    To me, no rocket science.  What am I missing?  How do I win with a negative progression and cannot win with a positive progression?? 

    My analogy to this is a vehicle repair garage with numerous employees.  There is one guy, say in a group of 20 that is always inciting worker's rights and how to do everything his way, not the owner's way, etc.  Fire the guy, point blank get rid of him or put him on landscaping and washing vehicles until he quits.  I would take the firing route even with repercussions of penalties and taxed surcharges for firing some states have.  I would just eat it and be done with him.  Costs me more in others non confirmatory and loss profits, etc.  I would look to make it up on positive ways without the guy, not keeping him and dealing with negativity, losses and the such.  Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into.  Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives.

    I say the above, not to dispel, discredit, insult or challenge of any of you in anyway.   

    I say that from experience.  From my 35 + or so years of playing, progressions only reflect the 'outcome', 'good luck', 'bad luck', 'once in a lifetime win', 'worst game ever played', whatever each of us cares to label their results, etc., and progressions pertaining to positive or negative in fact.  Progressions bring you up a level of everything in wagering and gambling, it plays on your psych. And, I am saying that for the negative as well as the positive ones.     

    Although the one place I play at in the Midwest, it has a current $10.00 to $2,000.00 tables.  Most places, do have $25.00 or $50.00 min's and the majority of the numerous high limit rooms, especially in Vegas, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut and California do have a $100.00 minimum up to $300 min's.  The negative progression numbers would be exceeding the table limits on 6 and 7 place progressions pretty easily even with the lower table min's.  And reality is, most all players do not bring $25k or $50k to the casino to wager $50 and $200 a time.  I do not care what the experts and gaming info writers recommend for 100 or 250 times your average wager for a buy-in or bank roll, sorry it is not reality.  Not here to discuss what your buy-in should be.  Most all players will not weather losing 30 or 50 wagers until they break even or profit 5 or 10 units, 100 to 200 wagers down the casino shoes played in a setting.  That is reality.

    Someone wagering $250.00 would be on an $8,000.00 wager on his 6th wager with a buy-in of $15,750.00 at risk.  Someone with a $400.00 wager would be at a $12,800.00 wager on his 6th wager, with a $25,200.00 buy-in at risk if he lost the 6th one. Like I said not practicable and will only happen with an occasional player that will risk huge money to break even.  Might be good gossip and drama to talk about here, but in the casino it is extremely dangerous. 

    Although everyone's financial picture is exclusive to themselves and not others, most of the experienced players will not engage in negative progressions much more than once or twice as a general non-written protocol.  This is because they have seen 7, 8, 9, 10, or 12 losing hands or something called the 'non-believable' from actually happening right then and there.  Happens all the time.  Not every time, a player normally wins numerous times before he actually experiences what I said, probably because his losses were overridden by wins or just his plain ignorance of the losing times.  When I said 'experience' it refers to time and years at the table, nothing to do with winning-losing-or even interpreting the game.

    I said all that to bring the reader to a point.  And that point is, what negative progressions can and usually do to most players, not all, most.  Frame of mind is altered or effected.  And by that, I mean the following. 

    Can you or anyone prevail with a dedicated 5 step. 6 step, 7 step Marty 'negative progression' to prevail for 1 unit or so?  Absolutely.  That is not the question.  The question is, how many will you lose before all the wins and money risked are long gone?  Some say something along the lines of, "If you lose 7 or 8 straight in a casino than what are you doing there"?  All players, even the winning most players will lose 7 or 9 or 12 straight at times.  And we cannot regulate when those times come along or how much we are playing with when those times set in, until it is too late.  Every one of us (I sure the hell hope so anyway) are saying positive and motivating things even if we are going down.  And if you were (and it happens--I seen it numerous times) going down say wagering $500 bets and then you started to lose with a negative progression before you can play it all out to the 5th or 6th spot, as you would be over the table max on the 7th and 8th hands, and they cut down to $100 or $200.  You just fall deeper in and get your frame-of-mind damaged and clouded even worse.  Then when you do win a couple, you are so far away from even, it is really sad. 

    So let's assume me and you are gambling at a casino.  We are wagering $20.00 and we lose, lose again and once more-lose.  Then we say let's go negative progression to recoup that $60.00.  So I place $60.00 out there.  Then $120.00, then $240.00 then $480.00.  Sure hope I hit by the time I got on that 4th bet.  I had an additional $900.00 counting on the recovery of the $60.00 that I/We lost.  And, if that did not prevail, then we have to pony up $960.00 for the next wager to get back the neg progression attempt and the original $60.00 we were hell bent on getting back.  I will stop there at the 4th/5th attempt and not even go into the 6th/7th attempt possibilities.  If you don't think they are real-possible or can happen to you---think again, I promise form the bottom of my heart it happens frequently.  But it is the nature of the players---when things like this happen, the player's frame-of-mind is affected.  They somehow get hell-bent on the negative progression hope and convince themselves they will prevail.  Yes, they can and yes they do, but not every time.  And the down side to that is the possibility those winning time with neg progression instilled into your frame-of-mind.  It is not that hard to recoup a few hundred compared to a few thousand or a few thousand compared to a tens of thousands or a tens of thousands as compared to hundreds of thousands.   

    No one here goes in to play one time and calls it quits.  They play year after year and will continue to do so. So I know the effects of neg progression and their effects are much greater negativity than most anything in live gaming.  A negative progression to me, is the same as a volume of combustible liquid with some escaping fumes, improperly contained inside a heated warehouse without ventilation and ignition sources sporadically present.

    As far as 1 win and 7 losses.  I have repeatedly seen great players that usually prevail and have lifetime positive wins, lose in excess of 7 times consecutively.  If you have a casino that the average player cannot lose more than 5 or 6 consecutive times, I will sell everything I have and borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars and be there tomorrow, maybe the next day.  But I know that is impossible, does not exist and will never exist.

    But, maybe I am totally wrong here and my way of thinking???".............................................
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Lugi

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #54 on: November 13, 2018, 08:09:56 AM »
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  • I'm astounded, I've no idea what you have seen, observed, witnessed, learnt in your many decades of gambling!!

    I regularly buyin for 60 base units, and make 60 unit PLUS, profit utilising a negative progression, A short, shallow or grand Martingale has no place on the gaming table, I occasionally use Fibonacci without requiring the amounts you mention.  I'm astonished, literally, have you never learnt studied anything in regards to negative progressions?  How about STAR, how about many negative progressions Victor has posted over the decades on various boards??? 

    I realize you are the global mod, however it needs to be said, your post above is a prime example why I do not read your posts, I read the first paragraph of your post above and skipped the rest, because it is wrong on so many accounts.  Casinos love players like you.  the level of Narcissism knows no bounds and is off the Richter scale,

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #55 on: November 13, 2018, 08:29:19 AM »
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  • I'm astounded, I've no idea what you have seen, observed, witnessed, learnt in your many decades of gambling!!

    I regularly buyin for 60 base units, and make 60 unit PLUS, profit utilising a negative progression, A short, shallow or grand Martingale has no place on the gaming table, I occasionally use Fibonacci without requiring the amounts you mention.  I'm astonished, literally, have you never learnt studied anything in regards to negative progressions?  How about STAR, how about many negative progressions Victor has posted over the decades on various boards??? 

    I realize you are the global mod, however it needs to be said, your post above is a prime example why I do not read your posts, I read the first paragraph of your post above and skipped the rest, because it is wrong on so many accounts.  Casinos love players like you.  the level of Narcissism knows no bounds and is off the Richter scale,

    That is my opinion as a player and a regular player that has never lost his bankroll in many years and has replenished it when realizing a few losses and I remove all other wins and buy things with them and do not increase the levels of the bankroll, etc.

    I will tell you one thing and publicly state it.  You said what you wanted, it is time to stop and cease your attempt at humiliation and chastising.  Move on, start your own thread and communicate with others regarding your beliefs and desires and experiences.

    I would tell the above to yourself even if you did not direct it to me.  This is not a board to constantly bash or demean others as you are obviously doing. 

    Again, you said it and now it is time for yourself to move on and continue your beliefs elsewhere.  Skip my writings, very last warning.

    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #56 on: November 13, 2018, 09:39:15 AM »
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  • For the sake of other board members that are interested in what I have to say, my experience, my play and my thinking, I will highlight words that I believe are vital to real learning, research and the ability to use something someone else has written about. 

    IMO and IMO only, please stop attempting to beat the casino, to win and win every time, it is the total wrong frame of mind.  If there was any way to actually win a set amount every time or the highest majority of the times, it would be patented, it would be sold and the casinos all over the world would pull the games, without one doubt. 

    Please scan and re-read the following and realize the words that are highlighted:
    _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    (Original Post):
                                             
    I am putting down my thoughts here based on reading the past couple of days.  I truly feel players going in a casino with the attitude/belief, "I can always get whatever I lose back by negative progression", is truly harmful.  Unless and only unless you are at a $10.00 min table and you are only wager the $10.00 or $20.00 and you have a reserved buy-in and you are ready, willing and 100% able with risking the sums of $5,100.00 and $10,200.00 respectively, to attempt 8 progressions to recoup your $10.00 or $20.00 lost. I say 8 attempts is what needs to be planned to prevail on a negative progression, not 6 or 7. 

    But to me, that energy, that feeling, that risk is absurd!  And it will play on almost everyone's mind, almost.  That buy-in bankroll can and should be used for other things and reserving it for positive events rather than the negativity and related effects losing has on most all players.  Those that believe in it and those that do it, I think the, "can't retract", or the "stick to your guns", and those types of overpowering and controlling thoughts set in. 

    While positive progressions are a very vital part of making profit while winning, any kind of negative progression to break even or obtain a small profit is extremely dangerous

    So, personally I forget about the smaller losses of $100--$250--$500, etc., and concentrate on the winning progressions which will far and beyond, make-up for the losses I had, if I win.  If I lose I will also lose with the negative progression.    To me, no rocket science.  What am I missing?  How do I win with a negative progression and cannot win with a positive progression?? 

    My analogy to this is a vehicle repair garage with numerous employees.  There is one guy, say in a group of 20 that is always inciting worker's rights and how to do everything his way, not the owner's way, etc.  Fire the guy, point blank get rid of him or put him on landscaping and washing vehicles until he quits.  I would take the firing route even with repercussions of penalties and taxed surcharges for firing some states have.  I would just eat it and be done with him.  Costs me more in others non confirmatory and loss profits, etc.  I would look to make it up on positive ways without the guy, not keeping him and dealing with negativity, losses and the such.  Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into.  Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives.

    I say the above, not to dispel, discredit, insult or challenge of any of you in anyway.   

    I say that from experience.
      From my 35 + or so years of playing, progressions only reflect the 'outcome', 'good luck', 'bad luck', 'once in a lifetime win', 'worst game ever played', whatever each of us cares to label their results, etc., and progressions pertaining to positive or negative in fact.  Progressions bring you up a level of everything in wagering and gambling, it plays on your psych. And, I am saying that for the negative as well as the positive ones.     

    Although the one place I play at in the Midwest, it has a current $10.00 to $2,000.00 tables.  Most places, do have $25.00 or $50.00 min's and the majority of the numerous high limit rooms, especially in Vegas, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut and California do have a $100.00 minimum up to $300 min's.  The negative progression numbers would be exceeding the table limits on 6 and 7 place progressions pretty easily even with the lower table min's.  And reality is, most all players do not bring $25k or $50k to the casino to wager $50 and $200 a time.  I do not care what the experts and gaming info writers recommend for 100 or 250 times your average wager for a buy-in or bank roll, sorry it is not reality.  Not here to discuss what your buy-in should be.  Most all players will not weather losing 30 or 50 wagers until they break even or profit 5 or 10 units, 100 to 200 wagers down the casino shoes played in a setting.  That is reality.

    Someone wagering $250.00 would be on an $8,000.00 wager on his 6th wager with a buy-in of $15,750.00 at risk.  Someone with a $400.00 wager would be at a $12,800.00 wager on his 6th wager, with a $25,200.00 buy-in at risk if he lost the 6th one. Like I said not practicable and will only happen with an occasional player that will risk huge money to break even.  Might be good gossip and drama to talk about here, but in the casino it is extremely dangerous. 

    Although everyone's financial picture is exclusive to themselves and not others, most of the experienced players will not engage in negative progressions much more than once or twice as a general non-written protocol.  This is because they have seen 7, 8, 9, 10, or 12 losing hands or something called the 'non-believable' from actually happening right then and there.  Happens all the time.  Not every time, a player normally wins numerous times before he actually experiences what I said, probably because his losses were overridden by wins or just his plain ignorance of the losing times. When I said 'experience' it refers to time and years at the table, nothing to do with winning-losing-or even interpreting the game.

    I said all that to bring the reader to a point. And that point is, what negative progressions can and usually do to most players, not all, most.  Frame of mind is altered or effected.  And by that, I mean the following. 

    Can you or anyone prevail
    with a dedicated 5 step. 6 step, 7 step Marty 'negative progression' to prevail for 1 unit or so?  Absolutely. That is not the question.  The question is, how many will you lose before all the wins and money risked are long gone? Some say something along the lines of, "If you lose 7 or 8 straight in a casino than what are you doing there"? All players, even the winning most players will lose 7 or 9 or 12 straight at times.  And we cannot regulate when those times come along or how much we are playing with when those times set in, until it is too late.  Every one of us (I sure the hell hope so anyway) are saying positive and motivating things even if we are going down.  And if you were (and it happens--I seen it numerous times) going down say wagering $500 bets and then you started to lose with a negative progression before you can play it all out to the 5th or 6th spot, as you would be over the table max on the 7th and 8th hands, and they cut down to $100 or $200.  You just fall deeper in and get your frame-of-mind damaged and clouded even worse.  Then when you do win a couple, you are so far away from even, it is really sad. 

    So let's assume me and you are gambling at a casino.  We are wagering $20.00 and we lose, lose again and once more-lose.  Then we say let's go negative progression to recoup that $60.00.  So I place $60.00 out there.  Then $120.00, then $240.00 then $480.00.  Sure hope I hit by the time I got on that 4th bet.  I had an additional $900.00 counting on the recovery of the $60.00 that I/We lost.  And, if that did not prevail, then we have to pony up $960.00 for the next wager to get back the neg progression attempt and the original $60.00 we were hell bent on getting back.  I will stop there at the 4th/5th attempt and not even go into the 6th/7th attempt possibilities.  If you don't think they are real-possible or can happen to you---think again, I promise form the bottom of my heart it happens frequently.  But it is the nature of the players---when things like this happen, the player's frame-of-mind is affected.  They somehow get hell-bent on the negative progression hope and convince themselves they will prevail.  Yes, they can and yes they do, but not every time.  And the down side to that is the possibility those winning time with neg progression instilled into your frame-of-mind.  It is not that hard to recoup a few hundred compared to a few thousand or a few thousand compared to a tens of thousands or a tens of thousands as compared to hundreds of thousands.   

    No one here goes in to play one time and calls it quits.  They play year after year and will continue to do so. So I know the effects of neg progression and their effects are much greater negativity than most anything in live gaming. A negative progression to me, is the same as a volume of combustible liquid with some escaping fumes, improperly contained inside a heated warehouse without ventilation and ignition sources sporadically present.

    As far as 1 win and 7 losses.  I have repeatedly seen great players that usually prevail and have lifetime positive wins, lose in excess of 7 times consecutively.  If you have a casino that the average player cannot lose more than 5 or 6 consecutive times, I will sell everything I have and borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars and be there tomorrow, maybe the next day.  But I know that is impossible, does not exist and will never exist.

    But, maybe I am totally wrong here and my way of thinking???".............................................
    _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    To me, in my opinion, what I think, what I have seen, what I experience, what many friends and casino associates I regularly play with also realize.  The list goes on........................................I try not to say definitely, or has to be, or will be every time, etc. 

    If you play with $10.00 min's wagers and buy in with $600.00 for 60 times the amount, all fine.  Almost no one does that where I play in the Midwest, east coast and Vegas, etc.  Almost all tables are $25.00 on the min.  In fact two weeks ago my regular casino went from $10.00 to $2,000.00 to $25.00 to $5,000.00.  At $50.00 starting (almost no one plays with that small amount on a regular wager around here anyway, but say they do) and you lose.  A quick 6 additional losses and you are already at table max on a neg progression.  And you risked and lost another $6,300.00 plus the original $50.00.  Down $6,350.00.  Then you have to start all over again. 

    If you never say a baccarat player with great playing skills, great experience, absolutely perfect mind set and knowledge of all the names of all the European money management systems lose 6 or 7 baccarat wagers in a row, you have not played very long.

    The key to a good bac play is risking a small amount of buy in from a partial bank roll and capitalizing on what may be presented and knowing when to stop and how to replace the losses of your bank roll before it is depleted, as well as maintaining a certain level and plateau without being falsely influenced by fallacy at the bac table, IMO

    Once again, I write and try to say things such as 'to me', 'personally' and things along those lines rather than saying my play--my way or no way, or you are wrong and off the Richter scale as you are out of your mind because of so and so and I win constantly and every time by doubling my money simply by following one of the negative progression because math says, it has to win, etc.  To me, the latter is the downfall of almost every player I seen that has went broke.  Certainly it works at times, but like I have detailed out, it will catch you and bite you hard and not let go.  Ted009, Luengyeh, etc., guys, can you help me out here?

    When I said 'experience' it refers to time and years at the table, nothing to do with winning-losing-or even interpreting the game.

    Not seeing it, or not realizing it; Is the failure for everyone that fails!

    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #57 on: November 13, 2018, 11:02:37 AM »
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  • Just touching on the LIAR.

    Here is a shoe.... P121311221121113111134121211114.

    Here are my bets in sections.

    Section 1.
    W
    W* no bet
    L no bet

    Section 2.
    W
    L no bet

    Section 3.
    W
    W* no bet
    W* no bet
    W* no bet

    Section 4.
    L no bet

    Section 5.
    W
    W* no bet
    W* no bet
    W* no bet
    L no bet

    If I bet everything, I am +6. By just taking one bite at the cherry, I am +4. Is there really that much difference when I can flat-bet and still win. Well, not in my opinion.  Because what about the day when you don't get those runs of 3/4. On saying that, this shoe was pretty smooth. You can develop framework for when shoes shoot all over the place and bet accordingly but the key IMO is keeping those LIAR down to as low a figure as you can and also not forgetting that less is more in relation to how many bets you actually place.

    cheers
    I can't follow this cause I don't know what your sections are.  I thought you were waiting for 3 B's but nope.

    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #58 on: November 13, 2018, 11:18:29 AM »
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  • "Negative Progressions and Negative Frame-of-Mind (2 of 10 in a Series)
                                                     
    I am putting down my thoughts . . .

    My analogy to this is a vehicle repair garage with numerous employees.  There is one guy, say in a group of 20 that is always inciting worker's rights and how to do everything his way, not the owner's way, etc.  Fire the guy, point blank get rid of him or put him on landscaping and washing vehicles until he quits.  I would take the firing route even with repercussions of penalties and taxed surcharges for firing some states have.  I would just eat it and be done with him.  Costs me more in others non confirmatory and loss profits, etc.  I would look to make it up on positive ways without the guy, not keeping him and dealing with negativity, losses and the such.  Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into.  Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives.

    But, maybe I am totally wrong here and my way of thinking???".............................................
    Ya maybe that guy gonna stick around and organize the workers and get them to join the Teamsters; go on strike and break the back of the exploiters?
    **********************
    RE:progressions.  Maybe a difficulty you have is to understand that progressions don't have to be static; in a straight line from 1 -  . . .  Reducing escalation to limit losses even if not recouping all losses as your moral suggests.  Most good progressions incorporate such.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why You Can Never Have a Successful Math System to Beat Bac
    « Reply #59 on: November 13, 2018, 11:24:04 AM »
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  • Ya maybe that guy gonna stick around and organize the workers and get them to join the Teamsters; go on strike and break the back of the exploiters?
    **********************
    RE:progressions.  Maybe a difficulty you have is to understand that progressions don't have to be static; in a straight line from 1 -  . . .  Reducing escalation to limit losses even if not recouping all losses as your moral suggests.  Most good progressions incorporate such.

    1)  Extremely rural where I am currently at, not like NYC or the entire Northeast merged together, etc.;

    2)  Progressions, yes I do play them and yes I have done extremely well with them, mostly on the positive side.  And no, I do not play them static or the way you think I do. I am NOT against them as a wholeI am against the negative progression wagering to recoup or get that one unit back or even on a win streak.  I have found that the (side wagers) and the progression or parlay and then just pull down the winnings until the one loss is more effective in a static position of wagering. 
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a minimum of 24,444 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com