The Law of Disproportionate Occurrence.

Though the dice, the roulette wheel, and the cards ''have no memory'', what they do have is a conscience, and this conscience is called a PROBABILITY MODEL. As most of you probably already know, there exists what are known as probability models for each of the games, and the various bets which make up the games. Where infinity (the long-run) is concerned, these probability models provide that there will be ''x'' number of ''apples'' to ''x'' number of ''oranges''. In general, 50 ''heads'' for every 50 ''tails''. With each game and each probability model, the most common occurrence of any particular event is the first one, or one. The next most common is the second, or two, the third or three, and so on.

However a glaring misconception occurs when considering the short-run in the same manner! Reality unquestionably evidences the existence of a second ''bi-polar'' law, or what is probably more accurately identified as a ''counter-polar'' law that governs the short-run. This phenomenon is witnessed by what we commonly describe as ''things don't happen like they're supposed to''!
For if the law governing the long-run were truly duplicated in the short-run, casino table games would have been extinct long ago. The challenge would be simple because of obviously already knowing for example, that with every 100 spins of the roulette wheel, that there must be exactly 50 red numbers to the 50 black numbers within those specific 100 spins. Well it doesn't quite work that way now does it?

Not only do we know that ''it doesn't work that way'', we can also accurately state that the law of the long-run isn't dictated to prevail in the short-run, and it is in fact extremely rare that it does duplicate itself perfectly in the short-run. Hence, through actual observation of the short-run, the fact is established that the law governing the long-run IS NOT duplicated in the short-run. Therefore, the challenge of the games present this unique paradox: the short-run is inequitable to the long-run!
So when it comes to gaming relationships and probabilities, though the whole is still equal to the sum of its parts, the parts themselves are not simply abbreviated versions of that whole.

Though the Law of Disproportionate Occurrence doesn't need to be academically justified or philosophically rationalized, it commands acknowledgement. There is nothing we can do to fight it or eliminate it. And why should we anyway? If we learn to exploit it instead of challenge it, the results will be greatly to our advantage! Furthermore, this is the same exact law that the casinos now worship to enjoy a ''take'' of 15 to 20 percent plus, instead of just the miniscule 2+/- percent that the ''commission'' would offer by itself. Therefore, once you acknowledge that the casino is nothing more than the host for the games, then and only then, will you be able to accept that the Law of Disproportionate Occurrence is absolutely the ''phenomenon'' which will aid you in taking the casino's money, while they are left void of a defense!

Good post Bally.

QuoteIf we learn to exploit it instead of challenge it, the results will be greatly to our advantage!

I'm with you. If you master the short term, you will master the long one automagically, because the long term is the sum of all your short-term sessions