Bayes:  I hope you don't mind me putting this in your blog because it's entirely relevant to bet selection:

http://www.greenteapress.com/thinkbayes/html/index.html

Thanks esoito, it looks like a good read. There are very few books on Bayesian Stats which aren't bristling with advanced maths, so this is quite a find. Of course, you have to know some Python, but I think most would find it a more more palatable learning curve than the stuff currently out there.

If anyone want a quick overview of the topic from an elementary mathematical perspective, go here.