New article: The Law of the Third

update: there was a chart missing. Should be fixed now.

Amazing what you are creating and providing. You might set the foundation for mathematically considering short duration probability beliefs with regards to gambling beliefs. Once someone takes down the casinos with a working method your work will spring to the front.

Thanks Gizmo for the kind words.

QuoteYou might set the foundation for mathematically considering short duration probability beliefs with regards to gambling beliefs.

Most of the articles after the first dozen or so will be about using Bayes' rule to do just that. I think you'll like them because it will vindicate your method of bet selection. The "long run" relative frequency idea  isn't very useful for the gambler, it's better to update your selections as and when new data comes in, which is what Bayes' rule is all about.

BTW, I've added an option to the "Coupon Collector Calculator". You can now enter a number of trials and it will find the probability of getting at least M coupons within the X trials.

E.g. there is a 72% chance that at least 23 different numbers will show up in 37 spins.

The concept of a law of thirds is so thought provoking to anyone considering mechanical system development or research. I keep coming back to it often. It's hard to deal in terms of 37 spins making up a set or balance point. Once you add 3 hottest numbers or the12 hottest numbers then you start thinking what about the 12 coldest numbers? It's a great area to look at when you consider 300 spins as a ten hour session. There are 8 to 9 sets in 300 spins. It's like all trends. It works sometimes.