BetSelection.cc

BJ the infallible method! (Read 2281 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Blue_Angel

Offline
  • *****
  • Hero Member
  • Posts: 868
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
    • View Profile
BJ the infallible method!
July 01, 2017, 03:56:52 PM
Assuming that the playing hands per shoe are from 45 up to 55, we take an average of 50 hands/shoe.
Assuming that the least wins we can expect during any given shoe is 10 out of 50 decisions then how many would be the equivalent for betting simultaneously 5 boxes?
5 * 50 = 250 bets approximately per shoe.
My estimation is 104 wins in 250 decisions, that's 42 more losses.
10 wins in 50 decisions, that's 40 more losses.

According my calculations this would be the worst possible scenario during any shoe, but if you believe otherwise then please explain your reasoning.

An accumulated bust probability for player and dealer when player is using basic strategy is as follows:

1) Player_No-bust AND Dealer_No-bust: 0.665 * 0.665 = 44% of hands (half favorable to Dealer, half favorable to Player)

2) Player_No-bust AND Dealer_Bust: 0.665 * 0.335 = 22% (all favorable to Player)

3) Player_Bust AND Dealer_No-bust: <0.335 * 0.665 => 18% (all favorable to Dealer)

4) Player_Bust AND Dealer_Bust: <0.335 * 0.335 => 8% (all favorable to Dealer).

In situation 1), Dealer and Player have an equal opportunity to win, lose, or tie.
Let's divide the 44 out of 100 hands equally:
22 favorable to Dealer, 22 in favor of Player, thus Player wins 22 + 22 = 44 hands
Dealer wins 22 + 18 + 8 = 48 hands
We notice now only 92 hands out of 100, mystery? NO!
The 8 missing hands are those 8 cases when the Dealer does NOT even play his/her hands out the simultaneous bust cases.

But what if we would not play by the book and decide to adapt a conservative approach in order not to have busted hands at all?
In order to do it properly we should not hit when we have 12 or more, all the rest we hit.
We should always split 6's, 7's and 8's, we should split Aces only if we could hit optionally additional card after the first dealt.
In order to do this you must take the decisions for all 5 boxes/bets, if others taking decisions and you only wager on their boxes then they could take the wrong decisions at your expense.

Thus since we are not going to get busted at any hand the key to success is 33.61% is the average probability for the dealer to get busted, or once per 3 hands approximately.

 Total BJ Actions:                       594,768
 Hits to 1st 2-Cards:                  297,153
 Total Non-Bust Hands:              97,735
 Total Dealer Bust Hands (*):     199,880

 Percentage Dealer Bust:          199,880 / 594,768 = 33.61%

 Natural Blackjacks (10+A):       64 / 1,326 = 4.83%

 Total Complete BJ Hands:         297,615

Out of 10,000,000 simulated decisions the maximum delay for the dealer to get busted was 1 in 46 hands/decisions.
46 hands are about 1 shoe, in other words, we should expect at least 1 dealer's bust per shoe.

By combining the accumulated wins and losses after every hand for each box, we are calculating the overall balance and divide it by 5.
If you are in positive balance then you keep flat betting, when you get in negative divide your loss by 5 and bet the calculated sum on all your 5 boxes.
If the sum is less than minimum bet then keep betting the minimum, when the sum is decimal round it up to the closest whole number.
You keep this ongoing calculation only when in loss and till the dealer gets busted, after he/she get busted you restart the count/calculation from scratch.
We divide by 5 simply because we are betting on 5 boxes, therefore when the dealer gets busted we will get paid the amount in all 5 boxes.

steps  bet unit$  lost   /  net profit
               
1       5*1   -1   /       5
2       5*1   -2   /       4
3       5*1   -3   /       3
4       5*1   -4   /       2
5       5*1   -5   /       1
6       5*2   -7   /       5 
7       5*2   -9   /       3 
8       5*2   -11   /       1 
9       5*3   -14   /       4 
10       5*3   -17   /       1 
11       5*4   -21   /       3 
12       5*5   -26   /       4 
13       5*6   -32   /       4 
14       5*7   -39   /       3 
15       5*8   -47   /       1 
16       5*10   -57   /       3
17       5*12   -69   /       3
18       5*14   -83   /       1
19       5*17   -100    /      2 
20       5*21   -121    /      5
21       5*25     -146    /      4 
22       5*30   -176    /      4 
23       5*36   -212    /      4 
24       5*43   -255    /      3 
25       5*52   -307    /      5 
26       5*62   -369    /      3 

(5*62)+307= 617 units BR should be sufficient even for most tough  shoes.

So what are you waiting for??
Go out there and make some money, enjoy yourselves!
''For after all what is man in nature?
A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal

8OR9

Offline
  • ***
  • Full Member
  • Posts: 107
    • View Profile
#1 Re: BJ the infallible method!
July 02, 2017, 07:37:50 AM
Many casinos now use a continuous shuffle machine...........which means an infinite deck ...so now what do you do ?....only option is to try to find a "regular" shuffled shoe ......which are becoming more rare.

Blue_Angel

Offline
  • *****
  • Hero Member
  • Posts: 868
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
    • View Profile
#2 Re: BJ the infallible method!
July 02, 2017, 07:55:41 AM
Many casinos now use a continuous shuffle machine...........which means an infinite deck ...so now what do you do ?....only option is to try to find a "regular" shuffled shoe ......which are becoming more rare.

The CS device doesn't change the probability, still remains the same.
Therefore, unless you stumble upon cheating, you shall always be victorious since you could manage even extreme bad deviations such as only 1 bust per approximately 45 to 55 hands and only 10 to 14 wins per 45 to 55 hands.
Of course you cannot lose all of the decisions, there are going to be wins including BJ naturals too, what it matters is the difference between your wins and losses.
My method achieves net profit for each and every shoe, however, I gave no promises regarding the size of gain because this depends from how much favorable the results are going to be.
''For after all what is man in nature?
A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal

8OR9

Offline
  • ***
  • Full Member
  • Posts: 107
    • View Profile
#3 Re: BJ the infallible method!
July 02, 2017, 08:31:59 PM
Another method to play is to wait for the dealer to NOT bust for 6 consecutive hands.......and then start betting....but when to stop betting and quit the shoe in subjective.................you also have to make the minimum bet while waiting for the 6 consecutive non bust dealer hands.......unless you play the Fusion-Stadium blackjack which has a live dealer and you can sit out as many hands as you like.

8OR9

Offline
  • ***
  • Full Member
  • Posts: 107
    • View Profile
#4 Re: BJ the infallible method!
July 03, 2017, 01:01:44 AM
If your basic bet is $100, then a 617 unit bankroll needed $ 61,700....which is getting into Bill Gates, Warren Buffet territory.

Even a $ 10 basic bet will require a $ 6,170 bankroll........not for the faint of heart. 

Blue_Angel

Offline
  • *****
  • Hero Member
  • Posts: 868
  • Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
    • View Profile
#5 Re: BJ the infallible method!
July 03, 2017, 10:26:34 AM
Another method to play is to wait for the dealer to NOT bust for 6 consecutive hands.......and then start betting....but when to stop betting and quit the shoe in subjective.................you also have to make the minimum bet while waiting for the 6 consecutive non bust dealer hands.......unless you play the Fusion-Stadium blackjack which has a live dealer and you can sit out as many hands as you like.

Waiting for un-busted hands could save you losses but also could cost you missed wins, therefore I find no value in waiting.

617 units is pretty low actually if you consider that you'll net profit each and every shoe, the only question is how much.
The best application for my method is by organizing a team of 5 members, each one bets his/her own box (on the same table), divide the mutual bankroll equally to all 5 players, divide accumulated net profit equally in 5 shares after every session.
Everyone plays according to plan, a minimum of 600 units BR divided by 5 players equals 120 units invested from each member.
But I'd suggest 200 units per member of the team in order to feel more comfortable with 200*5= 1000 units total BankRoll, it's mostly for psychological reasons.
However, 600 units (total) must be sufficient and also the absolute minimum.
''For after all what is man in nature?
A nothing in relation to infinity, all in relation to nothing, a central point between nothing and all and infinitely far from understanding either.
The ends of things and their beginnings are impregnably concealed from him in an impenetrable secret.
He is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness out of which he was drawn and the infinite in which he is engulfed.'' B.Pascal