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Topic: Common misconceptions & insightful hints  (Read 676 times)

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Offline alrelax

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Re: Common misconceptions & insightful hints
« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2017, 03:19:56 AM »
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  • No matter what you figuere out the volatility or the variability to be in baccarat, it doesn't mean much. 

    I estimate off the top of my head, without getting to nitty-gritty, I played at least, no less than 25,500 shoes of baccarat since I started playing.  And, I would have to say, without 100% written records--no more than 10% in a haphazard accumulation of shoes within that 25,500 even came close to any statistics in most ways. 

    Go sit at baccarat in a casino calculate all you want, then wager according to your calculation on that instant shoe.  Good luck.  You didn't sound like you were completely non-casino savory but then again, I never met you and gambled along side of you. 

    I will not respond any further to your posts from here on out.  Good luck.
    My Blog within Betselection Board: http://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played a min of 25,500 shoes of baccarat since I started playing live in USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.


    Offline Blue_Angel

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    Re: Common misconceptions & insightful hints
    « Reply #16 on: October 24, 2017, 04:15:11 AM »
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  • You could gamble all of your lifetime and still be a net looser, even if you have wagered 50,000 shoes wouldn't mean a thing.
    What matters is to be a consistent winner without excuses, stop whining and start winning!

    Good luck to you too, you are going to need it more than me.
    Nothing is always better, but always there's something better...!

    Offline Mike

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    Re: Common misconceptions & insightful hints
    « Reply #17 on: October 24, 2017, 03:43:09 PM »
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  • I estimate off the top of my head, without getting to nitty-gritty, I played at least, no less than 25,500 shoes of baccarat since I started playing.  And, I would have to say, without 100% written records--no more than 10% in a haphazard accumulation of shoes within that 25,500 even came close to any statistics in most ways. 

    I think any casino would be seriously worried if after so many shoes only 10% "came close" to the predicted statistics. Of course it depends what you mean by "close", but as a counter-example, here are the results of the Wizard of Odds 1000 6 and 8 deck shoes in terms of B, P, and T percentages:

    6 Deck Shoes:
    Banker Wins = 28708  (45.8418)
    Player Wins = 28038  (44.772%)
    Tie Wins =    5878   (9.38618%)

    8 Deck Shoes:
    Total player wins = 36193, ratio = 0.447496
    Total banker wins = 36887, ratio = 0.456076
    Total tie wins = 7799, ratio = 0.096428

    By any standard, these stats are close to the theoretical prediction, and after "only" 1000 shoes. Sure, you can point to this or that shoe and say it's far off the theoretical stats -- say 35% B and 65% P -- but these by definition can't be typical shoes, otherwise the averages would not be what they are. By the Normal distribution approximately 68% of shoes will be "close" to the predicted averages; a long way from 10%.

    Offline Mike

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    Re: Common misconceptions & insightful hints
    « Reply #18 on: October 24, 2017, 03:46:15 PM »
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  • 9 streak for black cards and 7 tails, 7 should occur once every 128 and 9 streak once every 512.
    I think 512 is 4 times the 128 Mike, just a coincidence?

    Yep. How many decks of cards did you go through before coming to your conclusion BlueAngel? This is almost certainly a case of hasty generalisation.

    Offline Blue_Angel

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    Re: Common misconceptions & insightful hints
    « Reply #19 on: October 24, 2017, 09:05:58 PM »
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  • Yep. How many decks of cards did you go through before coming to your conclusion BlueAngel? This is almost certainly a case of hasty generalisation.

    100 times each, yes I'm aware that the sample is small but I'm not willing to spend more time just to prove a point, right now I've more practical and important matters under consideration.
    Nothing is always better, but always there's something better...!