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[Bally6354]

I was going to title the thread cr@p stats....but that didn't sound right. 

These stats are from different books. Frank Bairstow's classic ''Beat the Casino'' has a good few chapters dedicated to craps with quite a few strategies outlined.

Bairstow recorded 5,000 decisions on the Strip (Las Vegas) and came up with the following.

Runs of 5 or more occurred once in 36 decisions.

Runs of 7 or more occurred once in 140 decisions.

Runs of 8 or more occurred once in 450 decisions.

He went on to say that alternating sequences of comparable length occurred less frequently than repeat sequences, but there were almost equal numbers of such sequences 8 and over in length.

His experience and testing suggested that whenever they were five to seven repeats, or four alternating decisions, that a favourable bet was to bet that these sequences would not continue for a further 3 decisions.

[Bally6354]

More stats courtesy of a poster called 'Kelph' from Gambler's Glen circa 2007...

Craps statisticians have noted that the average number of rolls between a point being made and a 7-out is 3.5. That means that, on average, once a player has established a point number, there will be 3-4 rolls before a 7-out. There are more streaks of 7-outs than streaks of winning points. That's because a 7-out is about 46% more likely than a winning point. For example, a streak of five 7-outs will happen almost seven times as often as a streak of five winning points.

The cumulative probability (does not include CO Naturals) for a shooter to make six passes in a row:

1 Pass   40.61%
2 Passes   16.49%
3 Passes   6.70%   
4 Passes   2.72%
5 Passes   1.10%
6 Passes   .45%

By waiting until the shooter has made the first Point, Don't Bettors are in a much better position to win when the shooter tries to make his second actual Pass Point. You want to scout for a Cold/Cool table or could probably settle for a Choppy one trending to the Cool with the Carsch Progression. If you're so dense as to be betting the Don't on a Warm to Hot table you deserve what happens to you (or what the Right players do to you).

[Bally6354]

What I am going to do from the '72 hours at the craps table' book is to compile the runs of alternates and repeats. I will just do a few pages at a time and update the table. What I want to find out is if Bairstow's theory of fewer alternate runs holds out over the 15,000 rolls.

[attachimg=1]

The above is around the first 1000 rolls. One interesting thing looking at it so far is the alternates of 3 (at 13) far outweigh the streaks of 3 (at 5) although admittedly it's early days.
cheers

[Jake]

By waiting until the shooter has made the first Point, Don't Bettors are in a much better position to win when the shooter tries to make his second actual Pass Point. You want to scout for a Cold/Cool table or could probably settle for a Choppy one trending to the Cool with the Carsch Progression. If you're so dense as to be betting the Don't on a Warm to Hot table you deserve what happens to you (or what the Right players do to you).

Craps is like roulette in that past outcomes don't affect future outcomes, so waiting for anything in these games is a waste of time.

If you're so dense that you believe otherwise, you deserve what happens to you.

[Bally6354]

Thanks for your advice Jake. 

Updated table.

[attachimg=1]

[Jake]

Thanks for your advice Jake. 

lol.

[Bally6354]

updated table...


[attachimg=1]

When I finish this table after the 15,000 rolls, I will split the alternates and streaks into the DON'T and PASS bets.

[Blue_Angel]

Craps is like roulette in that past outcomes don't affect future outcomes, so waiting for anything in these games is a waste of time.

If you're so dense that you believe otherwise, you deserve what happens to you.

Up to a certain degree I agree, but streaks in craps tend to be shorter than those of roulette.

[soxfan]

Good to see cats talkin dice, hey hey!

[Blue_Angel]

Up to a certain degree I agree, but streaks in craps tend to be shorter than those of roulette.

The longest I've ever seen was 12 DP decisions, from others, I read on a forum about 13 P in a row.
Never encounter anything longer.
Bally, what's the longest in your book?
On roulette we could see 18,19,20...
I don't know why but this is a fact, if anyone could bring forth an evidence for the opposite, then please be my guest!

[Bally6354]

Bally, what's the longest in your book?

over 14,967 rolls.

13 pass

11 don't pass

I can give you a full break down. Coming up.

[Bally6354]

pass line.

1. 613
2. 282
3. 121
4. 69
5. 30
6. 16
7. 4
8. 1
9. 0
10. 3
11. 1
12. 0
13. 1

Don't pass.

1. 552
2. 264
3. 160
4. 59
5. 36
6. 19
7. 12
8. 5
9. 1
10. 1
11. 1

[Blue_Angel]

over 14,967 rolls.

13 pass

11 don't pass

I can give you a full break down. Coming up.

So it's almost the same as I said above, glad to be confirmed.
Do you realize the difference between streaks on roulette and on craps?
What's your explanation about it?
I've one but not sure if it's valid, I'd like to hear yours first.

[Bally6354]

Blue Angel, I will relate what an authority on craps had to say...

''Craps is not streak prone in general but the lack of ''streakiness'' is most evident on the pass side. Therefore the best option for betting the Pass is seconds, and not thirds or runs.''

He could have a point when you look at the runs of 3's. 121 on the pass side and 160 on the don't side.

[Blue_Angel]

pass line.

1. 613
2. 282
3. 121
4. 69
5. 30
6. 16
7. 4
8. 1
9. 0
10. 3
11. 1
12. 0
13. 1

Don't pass.

1. 552
2. 264
3. 160
4. 59
5. 36
6. 19
7. 12
8. 5
9. 1
10. 1
11. 1

Over 14,967 rolls a 10 in a row should occur roughly 15 times for 1 side plus 15 times for the other.
I see 3 streaks of 10 for the 'pass' and 1 for the 'don't', don't you think those 4 streaks are a far cry from 20?!
It's not insignificant difference like 17 or 16  or even 14, out of approximately 15K only 4 streaks of 10!
Just think about it!