When Victor posted the voting on the favourite playing position, I saw that not many chose Dozens/columns. That's why I posted the challenge which is based on Dozens/columns to show how effectively it can be used to rake up some nice profits. Now even though the bet selection in the explanation of the framework is one dozen and one column, it can be done on any location that has 1:3 odds. That will open up a variety of playing positions combos right from dozens to straight-ups. And one admission before getting into the framework, dozens/columns are my least favourite playing position J

Bet selection
For a moment, let us assume we live in a perfect world where the odds match the outcomes. In such a world, if there are three balls coloured red, black and green lying in a bag, you will get a different ball once every 3 times you draw a ball from the bag. We take this as the basis for our bet selection. We observe one outcome and assume that that outcome will come up within the next 3 results. (Huge assumption! May be wrong! But we need to assume something J) In other words, we select a betting position and bet on it 3 times in a row or until a win. On a win, we continue on the same selection for another 3 spins and on a loss, we select a new position.

e.g. with dozens
1       - Observe this spin. Bet on 1^st dozen for next 3 spins or until a win, whichever occurs first.
13    -  Bet on 1^st dozen
23    - continue betting on 1^st dozen. This is two times.
36    - continue on 1^st dozen. This is three times. Now we lost this series. So select a new position, which is 3^rd dozen.
1 – Bet on 3^rd dozen
23 – Bet on 3^rd dozen
30 – Bet on 3^rd dozen. This is a win. So continue on 3^rd dozen for next 3 spins.
12 – Bet on 3^rd dozen.
36 – Bet on 3^rd dozen. This is a win. So continue on 3^rd dozen for next 3 spins.

Now that you have got how to do a 3 step, cycle based bet selection, I will proceed to explaining the trends and anti-trends.

Trends on dozens are something that have been discussed in this forum for years now. I was a keen follower of Hermes and his statistics on dozens/columns and their trends and lately the ones from George. There are essentially 3 trends that are possible when you are focussing on a 3 spin cycle for betselection (ignoring the green goblin )

1-2-3 and its variations (where all the dozens appear in 3 spins)
1-2-2 and its variations (where two dozens appears in 3 spins)
1-1-1         and its variations (where all 3 spins contain the same dozen)

Our bet selection works best with the 1^st trend, where we get all the 3 dozens as different. This will ensure that we get a hit, resulting in a 100% win.
It works next best with the 2^nd trend, where we get only 2 dozens. Here we are looking for a win% of 66%
It works least with the 3^rd trend, where we get only one dozen. So unless we are getting four dozens in a row, we will be guaranteed a failure if only 3 dozens come in a row. Here we are looking at a win% of 33%.

Bundling it, we have a balanced view on the trend which will ensure a good hit ratio. But how do we overcome the scenario where we are getting caught up in the last variation. Ofcourse we cannot guarantee, but we can introduce an insurance bet here, to ensure that the loss is limited.

Insurance
Most gamblers know what insurance is. For those who don't, insurance is a way to limit your losses by either getting a partial or full return of your bets. An insurance bet will not give you a productive outcome. It will either reduce the losses and get you into even. So how do we add an insurance bet in our framework here. We just add another element into our bet selection, which gives the same 1:3 return. For explanation, I will add columns as it is easier to explain. So every time we do a bet selection we do two positions that offer a 1:3 chance and in my examples I will start with a column and a dozen.

So the above example will look as
1       - Observe this spin. Bet on 1^st dozen and 1^st column.
13    - We get a win. So we reset selection. Now we bet on 2^nd dozen and 1^st column.
23    - We get a win. We reset selection. Now we bet on 2^nd dozen and 2^nd column.
36    - 1^st bet
1 – 2^nd bet
23 – 3^rd bet and win. Reset selection. Bet on 2^nd dozen and 2^nd column.
30 – 1^st bet. Lost
12 – 2^nd bet. lost
36 – 3^rd bet. Lost. Reset selection. Bet on 3^rd dozen and 3^rd column.

So we managed to improve our win% from 2 out of 8 outcomes to 3 out of 8 outcomes. Even though the improvement is marginal, if you are following any progression, you will realize that you are being lighter on your relative bankroll.

Now that we have added insurance, we need to see how we can ride on the trends on the insurance bet. For e.g: our trends on dozens may be performing wonderfully well, but the trend on columns may be going against us. We need to see how we can ride on the position which is giving us a great trend. I will follow this up in my post later this week.

Very nicely written.  I'm looking forward to chapter two!

I will second that Great Gramp's!

I'll third that GG

can someone post a set of 100 spins. I will use it as an example.

duisberg20130601_0218
4
22
13
3
2
5
20
13
19
18
10
29
2
8
16
8
19
2
1
36
31
4
0
29
22
4
29
18
10
18
5
30
31
9
19
2
6
2
20
35
33
32
25
33
16
5
1
16
21
31
22
20
24
22
9
8
19
27
8
18
16
33
25
17
34
34
15
4
4
9
12
17
7
36
4
5
26
25
28
13
24
7
10
32
36
5
34
24
2
33
20
8
17
21
17
21
20
12
35
1

Here's some numbers GG


32
16
20
20
6
35
5
34
13
30
16
5
5
14
17
36
19
28
22
16
7
20
20
17
3
29
9
7
8
3
21
18
35
16
2
25
28
2
23
21
30
4
24
6
17
14
36
15
18
11
18
20
34
6
2
28
15
25
3
25
17
33
8
31
20
27
16
23
20
32
28
35
13
36
0
11
18
20
3
33
16
4
17
16
3
31
19
28
34
11
19
17
21
1
13
20
11
12
24
14
21
4
26
28
9
12
22
32
34
32
4
6
16
0
27
35
13
2
12
22
2
23
23
5
29
30
34
9
12
20
29
19
26
9
5
6
28
21
22
7
3
5
33
3
20
22
22
10
15
33
33
0
1
18
10
19
3
11
20
27
28
22
33
35
17
12
20
16
16
22
0
26
30
24
3
25
9
28
20
31
2
34
35
3
31
16
21
5
30
11
16
8
32
13
26
18
4
1
32
32
26
13
23
29
29
20
11
7
28
29
7
24
22
32
0
7
21
8
36
33
12
23
20
25
1
24
14
32
28
34
2
15
20
4
28
28
25
19
23
0
15
19
10
1
2
0
33
22
36
35
36
19
4
10
32
32
12
2
11
18
10
26
22
9
9
30
22
28
0
33
35
14
26
22
7
26
6
23
13
12
30
10
5
36
33
14
14
23
11
6
10
15
1

Thanks, BW, Turner! I shall use the two sets of spins that you have posted as examples. But lets complete the framework definition first.
We left our discussion on how to get on the trend boat.


Trends
So now when it comes  to trends, there are two ways we could track trends. One is tracking what is happening on the table and the other is tracking what is happening to our bet selection. When we are able to match both these trends, we will get winning bets. Easier said, difficult to achieve in practice right! Yes, this is the greatest puzzle that we all try to resolve, and I have not seen any solutions so far. We all could arrive at a solution, that could almost be the perfect solution and there are many of them around. (sh!! Sh!! Go away philosophy, lets talk practical things!).


The key is to improvise and improve on the trend of your bet selection on which you have a control and not getting lost in what is trending on the table. For example, if we are tracking dozens and columns to repeat in 3 spins and we see results 12,33,36, 15, 33, 36. Independently, our bet selection trend is going horribly wrong for dozens, but going great for columns. We cannot influence what is happening in the table, so we should not be trying to match the table trend of 3^rd dozens and 3^rd columns. We should try to improvise our bet selection, so here for a brief period of time, we will ride on the column trend by betting only on columns for a brief period of time before we switch back to columns and dozens.

Now let's see how can we achieve this in the framework that we are considering. Essentially, we are betting on two trends here, a column to repeat within 3 spins and a dozen to repeat within 3 spins. Sometimes, the column may trend, sometimes dozen may trend, sometimes both and sometimes none. We are not worried about both and none, as we can't do anything about it J. What we are worried about is how to capture when only one of them is trending. It is easy breezy! For a brief period of time switch to the one that trends from the one that doesn't trend. How do we do that! We switch to columns when they are winning and same with dozens. Let me explain with an example.


33   - Tracking spin. Our selection is 3^rd doz, 3^rd col for 3 spins.
16   - Loss.
5     - Loss.
1     - Loss. Now our selection is 1^st doz, 1^st col for 3 spins.
16  - Win on col. But doz are still losing. Lets switch to columns for 3 spins and bet twice (our insurance bet and production bet on the same bet choice which trends). Our choice is twice our bets on 1^st column for 3 spins.
21 - Loss
31 - Win. Great things will always come to an end. After we get a hit, we go back to basics of one production and one insurance bet even though trend may continue. So our choice now is 3^rd doz, 1^st column.
22  - Win on col.

Hope you got the picture now. That's probably all of it on bet selection on this framework. When I find some more time, I shall post the money management bit.

Brilliant .

Excellent GG, I'm looking forward to the MM part.

Cheers

R

thanks a lot GG for sharing with us

if you don't mind, can I ask something?
you said: "dozens/columns are my least favourite playing position"
what is your favorite playing position then?
I assume you play roulette for a living, yes? (or some other game maybe?)

Quote from: soggett on June 05, 2013, 06:21:40 AM
what is your favorite playing position then?

ECs. Either as a primary productive play or as an insurance to straight play.

Quote from: soggett on June 05, 2013, 06:21:40 AM
I assume you play roulette for a living, yes? (or some other game maybe?)

Used to not anymore. Retired from money making now and taking a well earned break waiting for heaven or hell to break lose. Now it is more of a stuff which I cannot live with as I have been associated with wheels for now close to 30-35 years!

Quote from: GreatGrampa on June 05, 2013, 10:33:05 AM
ECs. Either as a primary productive play or as an insurance to straight play.

Used to not anymore. Retired from money making now and taking a well earned break waiting for heaven or hell to break lose. Now it is more of a stuff which I cannot live with as I have been associated with wheels for now close to 30-35 years!

thanks for the reply
if playing the dozens goes this well and they are not your favorite, then playing the EC's must be mindblowingly better?

so you can call it a hobby now?   

looking forward to your posts
regards,
S.

Hello GreatGrampa,


Thanks for sharing your interesting system.


Looking forward to your MM.


Regards

Quote from: soggett on June 05, 2013, 11:31:10 AM
if playing the dozens goes this well and they are not your favorite, then playing the EC's must be mindblowingly better?

I wish. But unfortunately its all the same. Its like the stocks that I own. Large caps might be my favourite, but small caps are performing better now