I've included 3 different W/L records below played on 2 dozens (w=+1 L+-2).

Any ideas for Progressions to beat it?

I've tried all the standard Marti-Labby-Parlay-etc (look at the last example for some real chops). Started to look for clusters, but the cops of smaller runs will rear its ugly head.

Weisbaden Test #1

WWWWLLWLWWLLLLWWWWWLLWWWWWWWLWLLLWWWLWWWWWWWLWLWWWWWWLLWLWWWWLWWLWWWLLWWLWLLLWLWLWWWLWWWWW
LWWWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWLWWWWWLLWWLLWLLWLLWWWLWWWWWLWWWLLWWWWWLLLWWLWLWWWWLWWLWWWLWWWWWLWWWWWLWLWW


WEISBADEN #1 01.07.2016 #176

LWWWLLLWWWWLWLLWLWWWWWWWWWLLWWWWWLWWLLLLWLLLLLWWWWWWWWWWLLWLWWWWLWWWLWWWLLLLLWWWWWWWWWWLWL
WWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWWWLWWWWWWLLLLWWWWWWWLLWLWWLLWWLWWWWWLWWWWWWWLWWWWWWLWWLWLLLWWWWLLWWWLW

WEISBADEN #2 01.07.2016 #200

LWLWWWLLLLWLWWWLLWWLWWWWLWWWWWWWLWLWLWWWLWLWLWWWLLWLWLLWWWWLWLLWWWWWLWWLWLLWWWWLWLLLLLWLLWWWW
LLWWWWLWWLWWLWLLWWWWLWLLLLLWLLWWLWLWWLWWWLLWWWWWWLWWWWLWLLWWLWLWWWLWWWLLWWWWWLLLLLLWWWLWLWWWLLWWWWLLWWLLWW

Cheers!

No

Quote from: TheLaw on July 04, 2016, 03:10:54 AM
I've included 3 different W/L records below played on 2 dozens (w=+1 L+-2).

Any ideas for Progressions to beat it?

I searched for years to find a progression that would not succumb to the killer sequence that makes these progressions not work in your favor. There is only one progression that works. Bet big while in a favorable streak and bet small while in a not favorable streak. Expect at least one but sometimes two very strong favorable streaks for each 100 to 200 spins. Never descend into the abyss while continuing  to use strong bets.

QuoteBet big while in a favorable streak and bet small while in a not favorable streak.

There is no method to guess that it is going to be a streak. It can cut in any moment. We can't push enough to win every case.
For example, a single W may take upto 30 spins, a  WW may drag till 60 spins and so on.

Quote from: Albalaha on July 14, 2016, 02:14:20 AM
There is no method to guess that it is going to be a streak.

True enough. There is no magic trick that determines the future. But you can tell when you are in the middle of a favorable randomness characteristic. If you can't do that, then you must be blind to the awareness of these favorable conditions. So what is it? Are you blind, having never looked at the current state of conditions, or are you never going to look at it unless there is something that must predict the future? All of the math oriented players for the past ten years say the same thing. It is impossible to see future events. Big deal. It's like claiming you must know the shoe size of the dealer and be left handed wearing a cowboy hat with a pink feather in it before you can know the future. If you put anything in your way that keeps you from seeing the current state of conditions then you are only fooling yourself. In that case I would recommend a cowboy hat with a pink feather in it.

Advantage players in the game of 21 know when they are in favorable conditions by checking for them. You have to look for opportunity in order to take advantage of it. The same goes true for randomness. They call it Variable Change in 21. I call my theory Coincidental Change for randomness. In the world of economics they call it a Coincidental Indicator. In all this, someone is looking for opportunities.

Quote from: Gizmotron on July 13, 2016, 01:59:00 PM
I searched for years to find a progression that would not succumb to the killer sequence that makes these progressions not work in your favor. There is only one progression that works. Bet big while in a favorable streak and bet small while in a not favorable streak. Expect at least one but sometimes two very strong favorable streaks for each 100 to 200 spins. Never descend into the abyss while continuing  to use strong bets.

This is a wonderfully apt and appropriate statement regarding state of the art professional play.

The context here is 'Dozen' and I do have a technique to beat Columns and therefore it might be inferred that this would also work for Dozens, but I find Columns more useful because of their inherent skew regarding colour, thus enabling ultimately a more 'efficient ' bet. I am not going to reveal that detail however as it is private, and it is my choice to maintain that.  Nevertheless, by extension here is comment regarding targets of 16 numbers. Further, all my work on this is public and I encourage sharing and improvement collectively for all readers here.

Gizmotron has always been most helpful but sensibly retains some screening, and through his most interesting comments here and those of other
contributors to this thread, the following detail may assist.

The bet I am in the process of adapting from Martin Blakey is the MB16 which targets four corners.

This is an efficient and compact way to cover 16 targets. Of course it may be argued that the 16 targets need to be selected from current warming, quite warm and hot repeat numbers so as to ensure repeated hits every spin cycle or as many as possible.

That is somewhat idealistic and still over my event horizon although WF technique does lead in that direction.

Better I believe is to retain the same fixed numbers and I play 2/5  11/15  16/20  and 31/35.  They are fairly well distributed around the table and wheel but some would argue that 19/23 might be better included at the expense of another.

However being corner bets they are skewed to favour the central column so any way of 'predicting' a central column appearance (one way or another) may assist your bet performance.

What we have found is that my running a short progression 2,3,5,8 in order to trap one of these numbers, there is a distribution window centred on a 90% likelihood of one of these targets appearing within four attempts.

For example from live play today at the table...

2  hit on first attempt  +10
---
14 hit on first attempt +10
---
12 hit on first attempt +10
--
21
13
8
14 hit on fourth attempt +0
----
14 hit on first attempt  +10
---

What I now do when I approach a wheel and review an accurate schedule of past hits is to record a snapshot of what I term 'outcomes' which is the number of spins required to complete a hit. ( Out of interest I Stop Loss after 4 attempts and resume after the hit and when appropriate in the context of the game go to a second phase to continue the progression).

Here was the schedule from this afternoon's session....

1
1
1
8
3
2
2
4
1
2
1
5
1
1
4
1
1
1
2
1
1
4
2
----

Notice from this 'transformed' overview that when a 1 occurs it is very often followed by another 1 (hit on first attempt).

Also in live play if watching  I encounter a 1, I immediately view  this as a trigger and start live play.

Sometimes I will encounter a streak of say 3,4 or 5  x 1 hits.

Results count.

I would not mention any of this if it was not worthy, but I have done very well in adopting and improving upon this simple strategy where I also can overlay other patterns on the MB 16 bets if conditions are favourable.  I have found this simple bet as a handy quick 'measure' of conditions and by using this bet as framework 'anchor', can build around it and amplify the bet efficiency by tuning into favourable timing.

However if you see a few 5,6, 7 or worse - this is a warning and I usually keep well clear as this is a sign of the inevitable corrective phase. I try to catch the middle or end of a streak if 1 and 2 outcomes and of course they cluster.

The distribution curve of outcomes enables consistently higher numbers of events of 1's and 2's over a suitable sample say 100 'outcomes' ( ie between 150 and 300 spins) and remarkably seems quite reliable even in a 30 outcome window, so it is quite easy to read when conditions are 'favourable' to 'fish'.  I find this so about 60% of the time I check, because of the distribution characteristics.

You see this favours 16 numbers rather than 12 where there would be much longer periods of correction non appearance.

I hope you find this of interest although it does not concern 'dozens' as such.

My full ongoing work is to be found on the thread MB16 in the XXVV section. My apology in advance to 'extend' the subject matter but the linking thread idea was the ability or otherwise to predict or better of course to quickly read a current streak and bet accordingly, then stop when appropriate. In short bursts of 4-7 spin bets this can be a very successful bet with good MM.

QuoteBut you can tell when you are in the middle of a favorable randomness characteristic. If you can't do that, then you must be blind to the awareness of these favorable conditions. So what is it? Are you blind, having never looked at the current state of conditions, or are you never going to look at it unless there is something that must predict the future?

Hmm, so you can tell that you are in the middle of a favorable randomness characteristic? If I see WWWWW, I can't say whether I am in middle or end and if you can say so, you are a clairvoyant and nothing less. We can only do reverse engineering and think oh! this should have been handled in that manner after a session gets over. Randomness means unpredictibility and that remains absolute in short run. An estimation can be done only of numbers of wins and losses in enough long span. For example, one can say that getting only 50 wins in 200 spins of an EC is not possible or too remote to happen ever realistically.

Quote from: Albalaha on July 14, 2016, 04:22:56 AM
Hmm, so you can tell that you are in the middle of a favorable randomness characteristic? If I see WWWWW, I can't say whether I am in middle or end and if you can say so, you are a clairvoyant and nothing less. We can only do reverse engineering and think oh! this should have been handled in that manner after a session gets over. Randomness means unpredictibility and that remains absolute in short run. An estimation can be done only of numbers of wins and losses in enough long span. For example, one can say that getting only 50 wins in 200 spins of an EC is not possible or too remote to happen ever realistically.

Thank you for clarifying your position.

Let's see if anything you suggest is true.

1.) Do I need to be a clairvoyant to know that I'm in the middle of a common win streak? (Answer) No

2.) Do you need me to be claiming to be a clairvoyant to assert my position. (Answer) Probably Yes

3.) Does : "Randomness means unpredictability[sp] and that remains absolute in short run." mean that you can't observe an occurring trend of some kind? (Answer) No. You don't need to see the future to be able to observe the current sate. You don't have to take the advice of anyone that says you have to see the future in order to win off an occuriring future coincidence.

Are Mathboys Narcissistic control freaks? (Answer) Yes

Answer me this please? What is approximately a common number of spins that a win streak in sleeping dozens occur every 100 to 200 spins? To clarify, how many repeats of a single sleeping dozen or column occur , example 10 in a row? Did you know that in the phenomenon of the Elegant Pattern a sleeping dozen can sleep for more than 30 spins in a row? You can validate this for yourself if you want. It would be a shame to pass up an opportunity like that. You are preprogrammed to pass on opportunities like that and to tell others why it's so great to do so.

Leaving you in your state of mind is both kind and necessary.

Quote from: XXVV on July 14, 2016, 03:52:53 AM
The bet I am in the process of adapting from Martin Blakey is the MB16 which targets four corners.

Your explanation is a great example of pragmatism based on current state observation.

Here's an opportunity for you. When a column and a dozen both sleep at the same time you have an occurrence of the same 16 numbers hitting while the situation continues. You can place 4 corner bets or 8 split bets to cover these 16 numbers.

Quote from: Gizmotron on July 14, 2016, 01:32:08 PM
Your explanation is a great example of pragmatism based on current state observation.

Here's an opportunity for you. When a column and a dozen both sleep at the same time you have an occurrence of the same 16 numbers hitting while the situation continues. You can place 4 corner bets or 8 split bets to cover these 16 numbers.

Here is an amusing situation last night from the table where I play under the name Palladio ( as well as early experiments with xxvv and xxvv#2).  Table is at www.rouletteplayers.org

My RB crashed from 100,000 to 70,000 while I was on the wrong side of this event. The protocols on the table are skewed somewhat ( ie table limits and no zero splits as well as limit on zero so could not recover as I would on a truly live table - nevertheless it is a great game and am very grateful for its existence thanks to SH - also I understand it is live spin data edited together ( that is problematic at the seams).

Have a look at the number sequence here ( European wheel) and you will see later an extraordinary and extended skew.

10
4
4
23
18
19
---
21
31
---
17
---
32
---
5
---
20
---
7
27
33
20
---
23
31
---
12
---
34
---
12
---
30
21
23
34
----
32
---
17
---
26
---
35
---
28
32
---
12
---
2
---
31
---
9
9
21
19
---
31
---
3
----
28
36
29
19
----
22
9
8
19
---
19
---
29
19
---

When I look at this outcome in the fresh light of a new day I ask well what was the problem?  My problem was that I lost my way and lost the the simple corner format that quite neatly deals with absurd skews. Also I could only place a few chips on 19 while on a live table it would have been loaded to the house limits by me -lol.

It taught me a lesson last night to not lose 'focus' on game plan. Had the basic MB 16 be played on a short 2 phase progression ( risk of loss of RB 432 units) the end result here, once the initial hurdle of 6-2 was overcome the net return should/ would have been a healthy +154 units. My disaster here ( learning opportunity) was to try to overlay incorrect 'predictive' methodology targeting streets and columns that ignored a total block yet which was in itself a brilliant opportunity - ie 19.

What was skewed was the absence of A streets, ie 1-2-3/13-14-15/25-26-27   and also absence of 9 numbers from the first column, 1-25 incl, until 19 came along!

Hope this is of interest.

Thanks for your comments and am grateful to the host of this thread for permitting this discussion which will be continued on the MB 16 thread where we will look at Collision Bets.

I'll throw out my 2 cents.

I am back to watching the evens for doubles or greater.  See two
in a row and either bet for the 3rd in a row, or for the double.

Watching sequentially it is like any progression. If you are locked on
playing 3 or more, you get strings of doubles and vice versa.  So I am
looking (so far) at betting flat where I follow that trend. I bet for the
last thing that occurred. A double or 3 or more.  Hence I am in
the trend.  For flat betting it seems to work, and you really can't
get into TOO much trouble.

From there, I always seem to see a pendulum swing.  You are always going
0,+1,+2, +3, +2 +1 0 -1 -2 -3.  Etc.

So it seems worthwhile, if you get to -3 or something, to maybe bet 2 units,
and recoup.  Not a D'alenbert.

Having said this, if it works, you always have 3 sets of evens to look at.
And if you try you can find SOME iteration of this where it swung to -3 and
is ripe for a recoup and swing back.

Right now I'm just looking for comfort in the basic.  Not too far, maybe, from
Nathan's "easy bet method" with betting 1 dozen and a color. But a little
more specific.

QuoteDid you know that in the phenomenon of the Elegant Pattern a sleeping dozen can sleep for more than 30 spins in a row? You can validate this for yourself if you want.

In my observation, the virtual limit of a dozen to sleep is upto 45 spins. I have done all these years back. http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/13069557/Virtual-limits-of-dispersionvariance#.V5GHOPl97IU

Quote1.) Do I need to be a clairvoyant to know that I'm in the middle of a common win streak? (Answer) No

Answer: Yes, definitely. You can only talk about the streak's length after it has passed. If you are at WWW, you can not say with any precision that it will last here with WWWL or go WWWWWWWW or WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW. Can you? Answer: No. That needs clairvoyant capabilities.

Thelaw,
If we bet EVERY spin, then sooner or later, will hit the deadly streak, that cause huge losses!

Why not try the Kattila's, and Albalaha's,
that , we wait for 3L, then bet, and if still lose after, say 4spins Losses...
Stop bet,
wait for another 3L?
Bet selection, that produce stable win lose , a priority, before progression.

Quote from: Albalaha on July 22, 2016, 02:41:44 AM
Answer: Yes, definitely. ("you need to be a clairvoyant")You can only talk about the streak's length after it has passed. If you are at WWW, you can not say with any precision that it will last here with WWWL or go WWWWWWWW or WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW. Can you? Answer: No. That needs clairvoyant capabilities.

I answer No because it's impossible for me to know what's next.

This is why I don't need to know. It only takes two winning bets to go on a free ride up the chain of future spins. I know that after one win at 61% in my favor for each spin, (American Wheel,) I only risk at a 50/50 paying bet on the second try. So if the trend ends, WWWL at the first try, and I lose both unit bets then I'm down 2 units. I'm used to losing bets like that all the time. It just means that I'm not in the perfect phase of effectiveness for a win streak. Every loss is an indicator of the current conditions. You can't take the casino on a ride like: "WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW" unless you speculate on it at some point. I keep to myself when I do that. I learned something new this year and I love it. I got it from Spike years ago and never knew it until recently. In a way, it's published somewhere he has posted. That's good enough for me.

Never attempt to outsmart  the table.

My  method is always predetermined.



For the single 0 wheel  I`ll stick to the First and Third Dozen. Look at the wheel and you`ll  see why .



For the 0/00 wheel  I follow the WASHOO2  2 dozen method.



For recreational purposes nly. Play at your own risk .