Hi All,

I was tying up my hard drive and came across something I was working on last year.  I remember asking Victor if he could create a tracker for this, but not sure what happened after that.

Bellow you will find the instructions I put together at the time.
I hope this may be of interest to some of you

=============

This Bet selection method can be used for Dozens, Columns or both at the same time, the premises is that if a certain outcome occurs you look back to the last time that event took place and bet the outcomes that came directly after that event, you continue to follow the trigger outcomes till one of the following happen:

   
• You are at a new session high of +1 or +2
• A new trigger occurs, you continue to a new session high of +1 or +2

As soon as a new valid trigger appears you will start to play it immediately sometimes that could be directly after or when you just completed a sequence of plays for a +1 or +2 new session high.

Here is an explanation of all the triggers, and lets just talk about dozens for now but columns work exactly the same way.
We have nine triggers 11, 121, 131, 22, 212, 232, 33, 313, 323.

If last two unbroken spins produced 11 then that is a 11 trigger.
If last two unbroken spins produced 22 then that is a 22 trigger.
If last two unbroken spins produced 33 then that is a 33 trigger.
If last three unbroken spins produced 121 then that is a 121 trigger.
If last three unbroken spins produced 131 then that is a 131 trigger.
If last three unbroken spins produced 212 then that is a 212 trigger.
If last three unbroken spins produced 232 then that is a 232 trigger.
If last three unbroken spins produced 313 then that is a 313 trigger.
If last three unbroken spins produced 323 then that is a 323 trigger.

Note: you may have noticed above I used the term "unbroken spins.." that referrers to the dreaded zero!!!.  For example if we have 202, that would class as a broken set of spins, and would not classify as a valid 22 trigger.

That's all the triggers we record and play off as a session progresses.

Now for an explanation of how we use the above nine triggers while we play our session.

As session progresses we record the dozen outcomes, 12323012 etc.

Triggers are marked in bold in the demonstration session, when we first start a session all we will be doing is mark the triggers as they occur, we only start placing bets once a new valid trigger has occurred for the second time, for example we mark a new 11 trigger, has that occurred before?  If yes, then we play the outcomes directly the after last 11 trigger, if no then we keep recording outcomes and triggers until we have a valid trigger to play off.

OK lets start our demonstration session, remember we are only playing the dozens in this session.


3
1
1 (mark 11 trigger here)
2
1 (mark 121 trigger here)
2 (mark 212 trigger here)
3
2 (mark 232 trigger here)
1
1 (we have new 11 trigger, mark it, play last 11 trigger outcome 2123.., bet D2)
2 (win +2, session high, no new trigger, stop and wait for new trigger)
1 (mark new 121 trigger, and play last 121 trigger outcome 23211.., bet D2)
1 (loss +1, mark new 11 trigger, last 11 trigger outcome 211.., bet D2)
1 (loss +0, we have 111, but do not mark a new trigger, bet D1)
1 (win +2, now we mark new 11 trigger, last 11 trigger outcome 11.., bet D1)
1 (win +4, session high, no new trigger stop, wait for new trigger)
3
3 (mark new 33 trigger, no bet, 33 trigger has not occurred in this session)
3
2
3 (mark new 323 trigger, no bet, 323 trigger has not occurred in this session)
3 (mark new 33 trigger, last 33 trigger outcome 3233.., bet D3)
3 (win +6 new session high, no new trigger so no bet)
3 (mark new 33 trigger, last 33 trigger outcome 33.., bet D3)
1 (loss +5, bet D3)
3 (win +7 session high, mark new trigger 313, no previous 313 trigger no bet)
1 (mark new 131 trigger, no previous 131 trigger no bet)
1 (mark new 11 trigger, last 11 trigger outcome 13332333.., bet D1)
1 (win +9, new session high stop and wait for new trigger)
2
2 (mark 22 trigger, 22 trigger has not occurred yet so no bet)
2
3
2 (mark new 232 trigger, last 232 trigger outcome 11211.. bet D1)
2 (loss +8, mark new 22 trigger, last 22 trigger outcome 2322.., bet D2)
2 (win +10, new session high, no new trigger stop, wait for new trigger)
2 (mark new 22 trigger, last 22 trigger outcome 22.., bet D2)
2 (win +12, new session high, no new trigger stop, wait for new trigger)
2 (mark new 22 trigger, last 22 outcome 22.., bet D2)
1 (lost +11, we now have a 221.. string, bet D2)
3 (lost +10, we now have a 2213.. string, bet D1)
2 (lost +9, we now have a 22132.. string, bet D3)
3 (win +11, new 323 trigger, last 323 outcome 3331.., bet D3)
1 (loss +10, bet D3)
1 (loss +9, mark new 11 trigger, last 11 trigger outcome 12223.., bet D1)
3 (lost +8, bet D2)
3 (lost +7, mark new 33 trigger, last 33 trigger outcome 13111.., bet D1)
3 (lost +6, bet D3)
2 (lost +5, bet D1)
1 (win +7, bet D1)
1 (win +9, new 11 trigger, last 11 trigger outcome 333211.., bet D3)
2 (lost +8, bet D3)
3 (win +10, bet D3)
0 (lost +9, bet D2)
2 (win +11, bet D1)
1 (win +13, new session high, no new trigger stop, wait for new trigger)
1 (new 11 trigger, last 11 trigger outcome 230211.., bet D2)
0 (lost +12, bet D3)
2 (lost +11, bet D3, we play 0 here because we have a 0 in our trigger string)
3 (win +13, bet D2)
1 (lost +12, bet D1)
1 (win +14, new session high, new 11 trigger, last 11 outcome 0231.., bet D3)
3 (win +16, new session high, no new trigger, stop wait for new trigger)
0
1
1 (new 11 trigger, last 11 trigger outcome 3011.., bet D3)
2 (lost +15, bet D3,we play D3 here because we have a 0 in the trigger string)
3 (win +17, new session high, no new trigger, stop wait for new trigger)
0
3 (this is a broken 33 trigger, we have 303, no bet wait for new valid trigger)
3 (now we have a valid 33 trigger, last 33 trigger outcome, 3211.., bet D3)
1 (lost +16, bet D2)
2 (won +18, new session high, stop and wait for new trigger)

When you are playing dozens and have a zero in the trigger string, we replace the zero with a D3, if we were playing columns and had a zero we would play C2, why?  Very simple if you look at the European wheel we have 26 & 32 on either side of the zero, D3 & C2. 

You will see examples of this in the demo session above.

When for example you have 1111 then you would have only two 11 triggers, like so  1111 outcome 11, new 11 trigger, bet based of last 11 trigger, next 111, no new trigger, next 1111 second 11 trigger, last outcome 11.., next bet D1, you will see examples of this in the demo session above.

That's it "Simple Trend Catcher for Dozens & Columns", is based on playing the outcome the last time a trigger occurred and play it in sequence, until either you are at a new session high, or a new trigger occurs and then you play that until a new session high or another new trigger comes along while you play.

Session buy-in, 20 units, or 40 units if playing both Dozens & Columns. A target of +5 to +10 is reasonable to aim for, don't be greedy be happy for small wins.

Thanks

malcop

Malcop,

  An interesting version of dozens and it appears to be worth taking a closer look at, if not for any other reason than to put it through its paces and detect any odd sequences that can be avoided.

  Hopefully I can carve out some free time to get some detail work on it done.

  Thanks for the idea.

  AD

Hi Adualy,


When I first started with this idea I only used 11, 22 & 33 as the triggers, all the rest came in later, I know remember why I wanted a tracker, because it was getting too complicated to play.


Also not a bad idea to treat 11, 121 131 as the same trigger, just think of the number in-between as a blip!  The same goes for 22, 212, 232 and 33, 313 & 323.


So you may just want to use three triggers 11, 22, 33 and introduce the rest later once you get used to the method.


Also the zero, maybe just ignore a zero, as far as tracking is concerned, so if you had 101 then you could still treat that as 11, up to you it depends on how you feel about the effect of zero's




Thanks


malcop

Hi All,


Bellow you will find two attachments, these were played slightly differently to the pdf I attached at the start of this thread.


When I first came up with this idea I only used three triggers 11, 22 & 33.


Also I only played a trigger until I got a win and stopped and waited for the next valid trigger.


The other six triggers were added later I suppose to get more bets, but not sure if they improved it or just made things more complicated.


Demo 001 Stats.


High +19
Low -10
End +16


Demo 002 Stats.


High +13
Low -10
End +12


Demo 001: Each trigger was played until I got a win then stopped and waited for another valid trigger.


Demo 002: Each trigger was played and win or lose I stooped and waited for another valid trigger.


The demo spins were taken from a very long live dealer session I played last month, I used 301 spins from that session.


No progression was used in the demo's results are all flat betting only!


Will using the other six triggers improve this bet selection, I really don't know, what I do know is just playing the 11, 22 & 33 triggers dose make play less stressful

If I have some spare time, will replay the same spins but using columns only.

Thanks


malcop

Hi All,


Here is the same sessions played on Columns only.


Demo 001 Stats.


High +17
Low - 25
End +4


Demo 002 Stats.


High +22
Low -8
End +20

Demo 001: Each trigger was played until I got a win then stopped and waited for another valid trigger.Demo 002: Each trigger was played and win or lose I stooped and waited for another valid trigger.

Flat bet no progression!


The zero's are a problem for me remember I said when playing Dozens and a zero appears in the string I'm playing I treat it as a Dozen 3, and when play Columns I treat it as Column 2.


If a zero comes between potential triggers like D1 0 D1 then I ignore this as a trigger, but maybe what would be better is just to pretend the zero never happened.


Only time will tell what is the best way to treat the zero's with the method.

One more thing I know I keep stressing flat betting, that is because I will not even look at a method if it needs a progression to show any kind of profit, I feel if you must use a progression it should be to improve profits not make a losing bet selection a winner.

For me progression should be a form of leverage, that you use to improve your end plus figure.

And because I'm mainly a flat better, I normally take my profits around the +5 to +10 mark.

Sorry to go on folks but those that know me know I am mainly a flat better only

Thanks


malcop

I forgot to mention this idea could be used for EC bets also, so if you was playing for Red or Black you just have two triggers BB or RR, then all you do is just play the same as the dozen & Column method.


Just look back to the last time the trigger show up and play the pattern until a win.

In my last post I told you that you could use the same concept on EC bets, I re-played the same 301 live spins, and here is the results.


EC Demo 001


high +8
Low -10
End +7


I only used two triggers BB & RR, but when I tried this a while back I think I also used ABA & BAB patterns.


This was just a quick demonstration how versatile this type of bet selection is.


Patterns repeat so why not try and use them


Thanks


malcop

Hi Malcop.
Interesting concept of yours which i have been playing around with back-testing using past spins from live play in B+M casinos only,looks VERY promising.....thank you.

Dino.

Quote from: Dino246 on August 19, 2013, 11:21:12 AM
Hi Malcop.
Interesting concept of yours which i have been playing around with back-testing using past spins from live play in B+M casinos only,looks VERY promising.....thank you.

Dino.

Hi Dino, Out of interest which way are you testing, I put a few different ways of using the triggers.

I have worked with your aug15 example,early days/nights on all this to date.

As you have stated,tracking ALL 9 of the triggers in the String in real-time,does create a challange !!

if that is the way to maximise profit to spin ratio from a time and motion point of view then so be it.

I have only ever played D/C,never numbers so this method of MATCHING 'could' be a much better 'earner' than playing against.

Great work.

Dino,


Thank you for at least trying it out and geting back to me, the more feedback I get the better, then I/We can see what triggers work best with the concept.


At the moment I'm looking at two modes of play.


Mode 1:


Just three triggers 11, 22 & 33


Mode 2:


The 9 triggers split into three groups.


Group 1: 11, 121 & 131
Group 2: 22, 212 & 232
Group 3: 33, 313 & 323


So when working with groups all you do is look back to the last time that group came out, and play accordingly.


The same rule applies you have to wait until a group has appeared for the second time before you can use it.



Thanks


Malcop

Malcop, tx for sharing this.
My question is:
after the trigger, do you suggest play thw whole string or just one shot, won or lost you wait for a new trigger? ...in your experience...

Hi Andrebac,


I suggest you try both and see which one you prefer.




Thanks


malcop

Hi Malcop.

In your Aug 15 example you have the following 2 strings,can you play both again,just to clarify?

2
1
1
1
1
1
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
1

If this concept can produce 18 units profit in 72 spins at £10 per unit in just over 2 hours then we must all test this to destruction or ourselves with it.....!!

To be continued.......

PS.

Are your spins REAL B+M or MICKEY MOUSE RNG ?

Dino.

Hi Dino,


I gave up playing RNG a long time ago.


I have attached a session I played tonight, 48 spins ended +17


I played both Dozens & Columns, the session ended Dozens +8 & Columns +9.


This session was played using one bet per trigger and putting the 9 triggers into 3 groups as I have described in earlier posts.

But I also play the other versions I mentioned in my previous posts, for example if only playing for Dozens then I will the method I described at the start of this thread, using either the three triggers or nine triggers put into three groups.


As of yet I'm undecided which way works best because they all have merit.

Understand this method can lose at times just like any other method, but so far for me it has been working out very well, when I came up with this last year I did not stop work on it because it bombed out, it was because I got involved in another project, put mine on the back burner and just forgot about it.


Will it hold up to millions of spins?  I don't know and to tell you the truth I don't care.  If it suddenly stops performing  well for me, and I can't fix it, then I will just stop using it.


I play this about 2 or 3 the times a day and go for 10 - 20 units per session depending on which mode I'm playing.


I'm only risking 20 units per session so a method that can give me back  50% or more of my session buy-in is good enough for me.


Don't get me wrong all methods/systems will lose at some point they have to, but what is more important is when you lose a session it should not be so bad you have wiped out all your hard won profits.


I never let myself get into the position where a few losing sessions could wipe out all my profits.  That is why I mostly play flat-bet or sometimes use a very gentle/flat type of progression.


Thanks


malcop