Quote from: TwoCatSam on August 16, 2013, 01:09:09 PM
A small video with vocals would go a long way to showing this can be done in reality and not just in theory.  That is, if anyone truly wants to teach the method.  Not saying you can't do it; I'm asking if you truly want to disclose it.

Quote from: Turner on August 16, 2013, 04:19:09 PM
I think the 3SD guys won't go that far...
I know why. it's a difficult concept to work with and takes a lot of study, and why do all the hard work, then just go tell someone who hasn't. I've lived with it for 20 years in Chess clubs....

This conversation triggered this post. It might be possible that those who are practicing it, don't have the time and energy to do so or simply don't want to do so. But that didn't stop them from dropping hints all over the place in these forums. So, now this post is an attempt to get all those concepts together and derive a playable method from that. I think, I have figured out overall a set of 5-6 concepts that forms of the back bone of this. I will start describing one by one the way I understand it, so that others who know about this can contribute as and when we go along. The end product is a mixture of all these concepts and how to play all of them in parallel. This thread will not be a success without contribution from everyone, without which it will be just my viewpoint from what I have seen so far.

Chapter 1 : Series and Singles
I wanted to keep this first chapter as simple as it can get. I am ignoring standard deviations, ignoring complex probabilities, ignoring regression to the mean. We all know that every single EC shows up in the table as a singles or a series.

Now for simplicity sake, in this example, lets follow only Red.
A single is when a single Red number is preceded and followed by a black number. "BRB" or "BRBB" or "BBBRB"
A series is when a Red number follows another red number. It could be a series of 2 reds, series of 3 reds, 4 reds, so on. But I am going to classify all these as "Series" to start with. As we get into further chapters we can discuss multitude of series.   BRRRB, RRRRBBBB, RRBB, BRRB – all these are examples of a Red series.

Let's start with an example RRBRBRBRRRRRBRRBBRRRB. Going by the above definitions we discussed, Red follows the pattern.
RRB   -     RB       -  RB       -     RRRRRB   -     RRBB    -   RRRB
Series -     Single  - Single   -      Series         -      Series    -    Series

Now let's see the first simple playable method using this concept and using the example above. We will use "follow the last" to either bet on a single to form or a series to form.
RRB – The next appearance of Red, we will bet for a series to form. So we will bet on red, when red appears next. We will bet only once.
RB – We lost the bet. Following the last, the next appearance of red, we will bet for single to form. So we will bet on black, when red appears next. We will bet only once
RB – Won. Following the last, The next appearance of red, we will bet for single to form. So we will bet on black, when red appears next. We will bet only once.
RRRRRB – Lost. Following the last, The next appearance of red, we will bet for a series to form. So we will bet on red, when red appears next. We will bet only once.
RRB – Won. Following the last, The next appearance of red, we will bet for a series to form. So we will bet on red, when red appears next. We will bet only once.
BRRRB – Won.

So we have 3 wins out of 5 placed bets. Now this is a simple method to follow series and singles on one EC. Once this concept is to me, I think I can use this to device a number of methods like betting the dominant, playing against the last, playing a pattern, playing both red and black, playing one outcome per EC, a mix and match of ECs so on and so forth.

The key here is irrespective of the length of the series, I am treating Series as a series and playing Singles and series like I would play ECs. Because we are playing like ECs, any progression that I am comfortable using in ECs, I can use here.

This is I think as simple as it can get. Now in the next chapter, I shall brainstorm taking into consideration series and singles within an EC as one unit, in other words considering the series and singles formed through red and black together. But before getting into the next one, I would like to gather some feedback.

A simple self explanatory video on this.

Chapter 1

Hi Priyanka,


Great introduction to the subject of singles & series it took me while to get to grips with this subject.


I created a spreadsheet to track singles & series so that I could try out different bet selection methods with it.


I really love this subject and keep going back to it from time to time.


Thanks


malcop

Thank you, Yanks.  I'll watch that again and again.

Sam

I don't want to shoot this down straightaway; from a personal viewpoint it might well be a worthwhile investigation, but the singles and series may have you going around in cirlces for a very long time.

It's an old concept known as Marigny de Grilleau. It's the only system-esque method I personally ever really put through the wringer. Predictably it all came out very even in the end.

Though I should say bet selections of this nature are still pretty popular when combined with a soft progression and can bring some success. They can go for a long time, compared to most systems which fail even within a few thousand bets.

These methods haave also been well-documented at the old VLS by the member Lucky Strike. He is a smart guy who spent a lot of time exploring different betting rules including regression with "ecart". Do a search there for Marigny de Grilleau I'm sure you'll find a lot of material.

Through research, in the end you will find that no matter how you look at the ECs, everything comes down to 50/50 random chance. The simple fact is, a single has a 50% chance of staying a single and a 50% chance of becoming a series of 2.

Any series has a 50% chance of continuing or breaking. There is no deciphering when or how these events will happen. Over the longer term you'll find the "law of series" in any sample for example: 1000 singles, 500 series of 2, 250 series of 3, 125 series of 4, 112 series of 5, 66 series of 6 etc. The existence of this tells us straight off that it's not exploitable.

Moreover, distribution of the singles and series are subject to the same fluctuation any EC bet is. The bet selections are basically FTL or OTL wrapped up in a huge amount of complexity. So, why not just pick randomly?

When applying regression to look for potential dominances this is also difficult, since regression can happen over hundreds or even thousands of spins, you could well go broke before making any profit. My opinion is you can't really get anywhere without empirical evidence, I think everything should be combined with conditional probabilities.

If you can apply that to singles or series it may be much easier to identify the most effective methods of betting, but this just makes it even more complicated. But, on the other hand, at least this method is centred on events that happen, rather than events that are rare.


[mod] I've spaced this for easier reading than a solid block of text. [/mod]