"So IF we take Mikes assumption that after 3 losses somehow mr. edge waits around the corner and ADD this statement here, it seems to me, it needs one or two bits more than just wait for 3 losses to start betting":
It needs a huge amount more! It does not work that way in the casino. People try all the time.
The people mix reality with fallacy and dreams all while they are in the wrong, 'frame-of-mind'.
I have literally seen well established, smart, long time players at baccarat lose 6 to 12 hands repeatedly. True they do not have to wager but their ego-mood-bank roll-past experiences and much more----all comes into play. On top of it all people do not take very lightly to buying in with $10,000.00 or much more and than losing it. I watched a female baccarat player last week actually point to the board at midway and verbally cite, "Look it has never went past 4 repeats for both banker and player". It was at hand 43. I told her, please understand things change and very seldom does the board hold true the whole shoe, 80 hands. She wagers table max in 4 spots, which was $8,000.00 for the cut to the players side and 4 more bankers came out. The time to do what she did was when it was happening in the sections that already prevailed. But, people look for what they convince themselves are 'solid' and 'great' wagers to make and then bet on them. That is why the casinos put those boards there, that is why they provide pens and score cards, they want you to do that. Simple, no? I have written about it all and many people will not truly understand or believe me, because they have not been in a real casino or their exposure to a real casino is not very much.
I truly think it takes longer than 10 years of casino play to even start to understand the casino, the game, and yourself. But hey--I might be totally wrong! I don't know.