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Topic: How to get an edge flat-betting (in THEORY)  (Read 11254 times)

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Offline Johno-Egalite

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Re: How to get an edge flat-betting (in THEORY)
« Reply #45 on: April 21, 2019, 01:42:01 pm »
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  • I noticed the original post was missing and so nobody would really have the foggiest what it was all about.
    Here is the 'wayback' link so anybody can read what was originally said in the opening post.

    Here is the missing first post of the thread...



    This analysis is based on a single-zero wheel flat betting on the even chances.


    Suppose you were able to reduce the length of your losing runs -  how would your edge vary depending on the longest losing run? To put it another way, what should the length of the longest losing run be to ensure that you would make profit flat-betting?


    The analysis assumes that there is no limit to the length of the winning runs. I wrote a program which generated even-chance outcomes and varied the length of the longest losing run from 10 to 1, and for each value I calculated the player's edge.


    Here's the code:


    Code: [Select]

    program advantage;
    var
       i: integer;


    procedure get_advantage(maxL: integer);
    const
      n = 100000000;
    var
      i, Lrun, w, l: longint;
      Pw: real;
    begin
      w:= 0; l:= 0;
      Lrun:= 0;
      randomize;
      for i:= 1 to n do begin
        if random(36) > 18 then begin
           Lrun:= 0;
           inc(w)
        end
        else begin
           inc(Lrun);
           if Lrun <= maxL then
              inc(l);
        end
      end;
      Pw:=  w/(w + l);
      write('Max losing run = ', maxL);
      writeln(', HA = ', (Pw*100 - 50):4:3)
    end;


    // main
    begin
      for i:= 1 to 10 do
        get_advantage(i);
      readln
    end.           

    and here are the results:

    Max losing run = 1, PA = 15.451
    Max losing run = 2, PA = 5.357
    Max losing run = 3, PA = 1.194
    Max losing run = 4, PA = -0.764
    Max losing run = 5, PA = -1.723
    Max losing run = 6, PA = -2.229
    Max losing run = 7, PA = -2.493
    Max losing run = 8, PA = -2.627
    Max losing run = 9, PA = -2.704
    Max losing run = 10, PA = -2.736




    For losing runs of length 10 (or more), the expected PA (player advantage) of approximately -2.7% applies. As you shorten the longest losing run, the PA increases, but it's not until you get to a max losing run of 3 that it becomes positive!


    So, if you can find a way to get your maximum losing run down to 3, you will have an advantage of about 1.2%. Alternatively, you could try to recover all losing runs above 3 by some sort of progression (good luck with that).


    It's quite surprising how many losses you need to eliminate in order to get an advantage.
    Maths is great like that.  Once it's been proven that no method exists to do what you claim, it's not necessary to go through the details of your system to prove that it doesn't work.  You claim that it does something which can be proven impossible, therefore your claim is false. The details don't matter.


    Offline ozon

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    Re: How to get an edge flat-betting (in THEORY)
    « Reply #46 on: April 21, 2019, 04:39:18 pm »
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  • The question still remains.
    Is using a virtual loss on the side banker, to some extent it changes something.
    I do not know if this is a place for such an open conversation,
    if it were so but by making selections by statistics, i.e. the single player is more popular than the single banker, you can create interesting selections