This is regarding imbalance, waiting for a trigger to show possible correction & then betting thereafter.
In that respect it's broadly based on Marigny, however I'm not really a purist when it comes to this – for instance, I don't always wait for the 3STD, & I'm prepared to use progressions if needed (though not if I can help it), both negative & positive.


So the idea below is just 1 where the application is quite simple really, but the idea behind it may be worth looking at & may provoke new ideas/improvements.

The basis: if we have a PnF cell 5 chops across, on average it takes approximately 7-10 spins to cross a cell.
We can interpret the results from reaching an STD3 (specifically in this example with singles contra series) visually more directly to a 'point & figure' chart.

If we have an STD3 of singles contra series, with streaks no longer than 2 or 3, we know that it is has been taking fewer than expected spins to cross a cell, therefore, we are betting, after a trigger, for a correction in the number of spins it takes to cross future cells.
This is where the idea of the PnF chart will differ from the normal Marigny notion where any streak is worth 1. If we are looking at spins to cross a cell, then the length of those streaks do matter. For our play here, we want streaks of a short length, because then the number of spins to cross a cell would still be under-represented. A streak of 5 or 6, although still keeping within the STD3 framework, would not fit in with this premise.

At best we can have a good correction in our favour; more probably, an evening out producing low variance.
The worst – the deviation increasing. In this instance, no wild chasing & a sufficient BR to ride it out is needed.
We can't know the outcome of the next spin, but we can be prepared to take a sufficient sample size after our triggers that will hopefully bring about the correction we are looking for (remembering that 'correction' can just mean the deviation not continuing to grow).

Trigger is 3 in a row.
Play FTL until 3 losses in a row – stop, wait for next trigger, continue until you have +2 or -6.
If I reach -6, I would start to use a positive progression (contra d'alembert) to break even or get close. Another couple of losses & increase the base bet to 2units.

That's it – like I said, a lot of words to describe a pretty simple way of play – it's the correlation between imbalances & thinking of them in terms of a PnF chart that I thought might be interesting.

Thanks to Drazen for providing the samples. I've tried to pick a couple that are tricky, many will be a more straightforward +2.

EG1:

314: b
315: r
316: r
317: b
318: r
319: b
320: r
321: b
322: r
323: b
324: b
325: b
326: b
327: r
328: b
329: r
330: b
331: r
332: b
333: r
334: b
Red & Black
Singles=14 | Series =2 | Ecart =3.0
Formations = B RR B R B R B R BBBB R B R B R B R
Sequence|-->35 1 36 11 5 17 18 29 23 17 8 11 8 21 24 7 20 7 15 23 (8 ) @ SPIN NR-334


335: r
336: b
337: b
338: r
339: r
340: b
341: b
342: b    <<<<trigger 'bbb'
343: b    +1
344: r     0
345: b    -1
346: r     -2
347: r
348: b
349: b
350: r
351: b
352: r
353: r
354: r     <<<<trigger 'rrr'
355: r     -1
356: b    -2
357: b    -1
358: b    0
359: r     -1
360: r     0
361: b    -1
362: r     -2
363: r     -1
364: r     0
365: b    -1
366: r     -2
367: r     -1
368: b    -2
369: b    -1
370: b    0
371: b    +1
372: b    +2           END +2
373: b   
374: r     
375: b   
376: b
377: r
378: b


EG2:

453: l
454: h
455: l
456: l
457: l
458: h
459: l
460: h
461: h
462: h
463: l
464: h
465: l
466: h
467: l
468: l
469: h
470: l
471: h
472: l
473: l
474: h
475: h
476: h
477: h
478: l
479: h
480: l
481: h
482: l
483: h
484: l
485: h
486: l
487: h

Low & High

Singles=20 | Series =5 | Ecart =3.0
Formations = L H LLL H L HHH L H L H LL H L H LL HHHH L H L H L H L H L
Sequence|-->14 27 4 7 2 35 16 24 23 21 12 29 12 23 5 12 28 11 31 9 18 36 20 22 31 9 33 5 25 5 27 9 33 16 (33) @ SPIN NR-487

488: h
489: l
490: h
491: h
492: h    <<<<trigger 'hhh'
493: l      -1
494: h    -2
495: l      -3
496: h
497: l
498: l
499: l      <<<<trigger 'lll'
500: h    -4
501: h    -3
502: h    -2
503: h    -1
504: l      -2
505: h    -3
506: l      -4
507: l
508: l      <<<<trigger 'lll'
509: l      -3
510: l      -2
511: l      -1
512: h    -2
513: h    -1
514: l      -2
515: h    -3
516: l      -4
517: h
518: h
519: h    <<<<trigger 'hhh'
520: l      -5
521: h    -6
522: h    -5 [start contra d'alembert]
523: h    -3
524: l      -6
525: l      -5
526: l      -3
527: l      0              END 0
528: l
529: l
530: h
531: l
532: h
533: h
534: h
535: l
536: l
537: l
538: l
539: l
540: l
541: h

In the example above, in real play, once I reached the second -4, & then got back to -1, I probably would've stopped after another loss taking me to -2.

I would be happy to read any ideas people have for improving this, whether it be the triggers in & out, MM, stop-wins/losses etc...

Hello Mr. Monaco.
There are several terms that I can not understand in your publication or need confirmation.
I was wondering if there is a chance to explain: PnF chops across cell 5.

Please confirm that this means what I believe:
STD3 = standard deviation 3.
ftl = play last decision.
Ecart = deviation.

Thank you very much.

Dear Wannawin


The PnF chart is only to visually represent what happens before you have 5 changes in direction, ie. RRR/BB/R/BBB/RRRR


[attachimg=1]


To move across 1 cell, the average would be 2-3 singles, 1-2 doubles, & 1 three or more, 7-10 spins on average.


The rest you are right.


Any effect of the length of streak amongst the singles is the main area: whether shorter streaks can trigger an FTL bet, as well as the usual Marigny bet for the series to correct themselves..

PnF = Point and Figure. It's commonly used in trading.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:pnf_charts

Well just to finish this idea off, this is a real play example of how you might combine this PnF bet with a more normal Marigny type attack on series.


PnF bets are in bold; Marigny bets underlined & running totals in brackets.


B
P
B
P
B
PP
B
P
B
P
B
P
BB
P
B
P  14 singles/2 series of 2: STD3
BBB <<<<trigger for PnF bet 'BBB'
PP -1, 0
B -1
P -2   [-1]
BB -3 [-2]
P
BB
PP
BBBB <<<<trigger for PnF bet 'BBB', [-1] -2
PPP -3, -2, -1 [ 0]
BB -2, -1 [+1]
PP -2, -1 [+2 - END Marigny bets]
B -2
P -3
BBB -4
P
BBB <<<<trigger for PnF bet 'BBB'
PPP -5, -4, -3
BB -4, -3
P -4
BB -5, -4
PP -5, -4
BBBBB -5, -4, -3, -2, -1
P -2
BBB -3, -2, -1
PPPPP -2, -1, 0, +1, +2


END +4




I came to look at this mainly through real play, but i just did a quick 600 placed bets test (see attached) - flatbetting to +2, it always recovered & finished +62units, z-score 2.53.
A real grind at times though, & I don't doubt there would be sequences that would be even longer, possibly not to recover.
I would use a progression to try & recoup though.


That's the way i envisage it - a bet to double-up with Marigny opportunities.


Cheers & good luck

this is being played for real in a casino?

Quote from: seykid31 on October 20, 2012, 02:39:11 PM
this is being played for real in a casino?

Online casinos don't know what you're tracking:)

If paranoid... player only has to use a separate laptop for tracking

Quote from: seykid31 on October 20, 2012, 02:39:11 PM
this is being played for real in a casino?

Online, live dealer.


Tonight had this:


PP
B
PP
B
P
B
PP
B
P
B
PP
B
P
B
P
BB
P
BBBB +1
P 0
B -1
P -2
BB
P
B
PPPPPP -1, 0, +1
B 0
P -1
BBBB -2, -1
P -2
BBBBB -3, -2, -1, 0, +1
PPPPP 0, +1, +2; could've carried on here maybe - still looking at win-goals etc..
BB <<<<played as series/singles bet +3
PPP <<<< i could've played this for a win, but decided not to push my luck here & was happy with +3.
B


as i said in my first post, I don't play strictly to the 'wait for an std3' before betting. I thought this looked a good opportunity so played.

Nice idea! 

Hi All,


Attached you will find a excel tracker for monaco's idea, it dose not tell you if there is an imbalance just when you have a valid trigger, I may do a version where you can configure it to only have a trigger when the STD reaches a user configurable point, and bet Marginy style instead of just FL until you lose three times in a row.

The sheet allows you to configure if you want to use a progression or not 0 = no progression, 1 = progression on.


The progression in the sheet is what I call an extended PLUSCOUP, you can say can decide how many wins or losses it would take for the progression to go up.


In this each file you will see four sheets, Main, RB, EO & LH, the Main is where you enter the spin numbers and also has a summary of each of the EC bets, so when you are using this as a tracker as I do when Playing I only use the Main, if you go to lest say the RB sheet you will see how the RB bets are tracked, also that is where in the right hand side you will be able to configure if you want the sheet to work flat or progression and what type of progression.


What I am looking for now is a progression that takes advantage of short winning streaks, if you look at the three live sessions attached you can see how if an EC is on form how the wins are grouped together.


If you have any questions just ask.


Thanks


malcop

Thanks a lot for this. Very generous of you to share. 

Thank you Malcop    Your time & effort is much appreciated.


I'm going to test some numbers with it, & hopefully some options for progressions will come up.


cheers again

No problem Monaco, that's what this forum is all about sharing and hopefully learning from each other.


I attached two more live dealer sessions I played this morning, the first session I ended it at +17, the second session got to +15 and I ended it at +4, normally I would have bailed out at about +10 if I got as high as +15, but just wanted to let it play out, but then I ran out of time and had to go out.

On the subject of progressions, note how we have long WWWLWWL type of patterns so a progression that could capatialise on those kind of patterns is what I'm looking for.
But the main thing was the sessions attached was totally flat-betting


Thanks


malcop