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Offline Super Forex

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Forex analysis by SuperForex
« on: August 04, 2017, 02:33:43 PM »
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  • British Struggles

    The fallout from Brexit is a deteriorating economic climate in the UK, and the British pound shows it.

    Despite the unexpected strength of economic growth in Europe, the struggles of the United Kingdom continue. After the devastating losses incurred immediately before and after the Brexit referendum vote last summer and the disastrous elections results earlier this year, Britain and its currency still find themselves in a tight spot.

    Yesterday we heard from the Bank of England, who this time announced that they are taking a more pessimistic prognosis of the UKís economy and downgraded their forecasts for economic growth for 2017 and 2018 for the second time this summer. As a result, the British pound sterling suffered losses versus the American dollar of almost 1%.

    The Bank of Englandís stance is likely rooted in the disappointing wages. Since the pound slumped, goods imported to the United Kingdom naturally cost more for Brits, essentially driving their purchasing power lower. The BoE expects this problem to worsen in the future and is somewhat apprehensive regarding wage growth.

    Bank of England governor Mark Carney expressed a concern for businesses who find it additionally difficult to invest amid the political struggle inside of the United Kingdom and the problematic negotiations with the European Union regarding Brexit.

    The United Kingdom is currently lagging behind its European counterparts, and Carney expects an even slower economic growth. Needless to say, the bank chose not to increase interest rates yet, in hopes of stimulating the economy.

    Despite the political discord within the United Kingdom due to Theresa Mayís party failing to achieve a definitive majority in the preliminary parliamentary elections she called and the lack of strong British leadership that resulted from that, the UK has proceeded with the EU negotiations. However, even though negotiators have met several times now, not much has been decided, especially since the EU is putting pressure on the UK to meet its critical demands regarding immigration and payment.

    Overall, the situation seems really unclear right now. British politicians are not helping much, as they provide contradictory statements from time to time, indicating the British government is not on the same page. The British pound has already dropped 13% since the Brexit vote, and due to the lack of proper leadership and the absence of clarity regarding the negotiations with the European Union we expect the GBP to continue its decrease versus major currencies.



    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #1 on: August 07, 2017, 02:04:32 PM »
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  • EUR/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

    The EUR/JPY pair recorded its highest level in 17 months and we expect new highs.

    The EUR/JPY currency pair rose last week to gain more than 130 pips and break the key resistance level at 130.64. Then, the currency pair doped on Friday after the US jobs report which showed an increase of 27 000 compared to 209k in July, so now the pair has returned back to trade above the resistance level again.

    The EUR/JPY pair has been trading inside a price channel since last April and after it broke Julyís high to record the highest level in 17 months it is expected the pair will make new highs this month. The EUR/JPY is still trading above the moving average which is a support level for the prices and the MACD indicator supports our positive vision too.

    The Next Few Days

    From this simple analysis of the pair we can buy it at the current level 130.73 and keep our first target at 132.12, which is 161.8% from the short correction wave last month; we should place our second target at 134.14 and keep our stop-loss level once the pair breaks the channel down because it will change the trend if it did. If the pair breaks the support level 128.64 down we have to sell the pair and keep the take profit level at 125.50.

    This week the market is poor in terms of hot economic news from the European Union or Japan. On Friday Japanese banks will be closed for Mountain Day.



    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #2 on: August 08, 2017, 03:17:38 PM »
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  • GBP/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

    After a series of sideways movements, we believe the GBP/USD would finally rebound from the support and turn bullish.

    Today for our analysis we would look into the GBP/USD currency pair, which was moving sideways for some time but started going down after the American market open.

    At this point the GBP/USD is headed for a steady decrease and would soon touch an area when we can start buying it safely. Of course, we should pay attention to key levels and use the support at 1.3006, which coincides with several Fibonacci factors, as guidance for our buy positions. For the upper limit of the reverse movement after touching the support, we need to focus on the resistance level at 1.3109.

    In terms of technical indicators, we can very clearly see that the Stochastic one is playing with the support at 7.5%, which indicates that we would see a bullish turn soon, so we are expecting the price to rebound from the support up to the resistance we just mentioned above.

    The most important thing about this pair today is that the level of 1.30 is a sort of a pivot point: if the pair drops below it, we should expect that the bears will dominate the market. However, as long as the GBP/USD rates remain above it, we can rely on the pair rebounding from the support and climbing up.

    To sum up, we should place buy orders with a target of 1.3006 (our support level) and a take profit at 1.3109 (the resistance level). Just to be safe, we should also indicate our stop-loss at 1.2954.




    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #3 on: August 09, 2017, 03:38:09 PM »
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  • NZD/USD: Fundamental Review & Forecast


    The support line is moving down and the upward trend is weakening while the market is waiting for the RBNZ decision about the rate change and monetary policy.

    Since May the rates of the NZD/USD had been in the frames of an upward trend which is based on the weakened U.S. dollar. Now the market is almost frozen while waiting for the RBNZ's interest rate decision and the monetary policy report of the Central Bank.


    In the beginning of the month the NZD rate reached the level of May 2015, but then began decreasing to more reasonable levels because the value of the NZD seems overrated, given the worsening economic situation in the country and unconvincing economic statistics.

    Overall, we can definitely say there is a lack of incentives for the NZD to strengthen. In addition, the RBNZ has repeatedly stated that they're not interested in a strong currency rate. Investors are confident that the RBNZ will leave interest rates unchanged. Therefore, the probability of a further decreasing of the NZD is very high. The only thing we can expect that can help the NZD to remain at the same high level would be a significant easing in the monetary policy of the RBNZ. We can even expect some price hikes during the period of news from the RBNZ tonight.

    This is a rare case when we have to ignore all oscillators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI), which unanimously indicate a signal about the oversold zone and a good moment for the deals to BUY. Because of the given the fundamental factors, there is a high probability for a further decreasing of the NZD/USD rate to the level of 0.72 USD. The support line has already started to shift down, so the deals to SELL seem much more effective. Nevertheless, it is too early to speak about the trend reversal, but it's safe to talk about the weakening of the current uptrend.


    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #4 on: August 10, 2017, 03:28:37 PM »
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  • EUR/USD Technical Overview & Daily Chart

    After a strong bullish moment for the euro, the price movement has lulled, though we predict it would recover.

    Today for our analysis we would look into the current state of the EUR/USD currency pair.

    In recent weeks the euro has gradually strengthened against the weakened American dollar. This is largely due to good economic data from Europe, on the one hand, and political instability in the United States, on the other. However, this week we saw some short-term losses for the EUR; still, it didnít drop too much and was able to find a stable support level above 1.17, which is not bad at all.

    The Euro still has the potential to resume its growth to the level of 1.18 that is so coveted by investors, but this might take some time, so we need to be patient.

    We currently have the deciding pivot point at 1.1724. If the EUR/USD drops below it, we should keep our eyes on the nearby support levels at 1.1712, 1.1704, and 1.1692. In case the price moves beyond the pivot point, we can use the nearby resistance levels at 1.1732, 1.1744, and 1.1752 as guidance.

    As of the moment of this articleís publication the EUR/USD is trading near the pivot point at around 1.1726. The technical indicators are unanimous in recommending a strong sell.

    We have some fundamental releases from both the European Union and the United States today. In Europe we expect data on the French industrial production, as well as the trade balance of Italy. From the US we are waiting for the balance of the federal budget, the core PPI, the reserves of natural gas, unemployment, and other economic data. Because of these releases some moderate volatility can be expected in the pair today.



    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #5 on: August 11, 2017, 03:09:39 PM »
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  • The US vs. North Korea

    The markets are shaken amid the rising tensions between the United States and North Korea.

    While this week has been more or less quiet in terms of actual economic events affecting the financial markets, it was quite the opposite in terms of politics: this week US President Donald Trump made several controversial comments that sparked a discussion on whether the United States would be going to war with North Korea.

    Needless to say, such major fundamental events always have an effect on the markets. In this particular case it was Asian stocks (particularly in South Korea, which is dangerously close to a potential war zone) that dropped significantly Ė now they seem more insecure than ever, and investors are directing their attention to other safe-haven instruments such as gold, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen.

    The currency of Korea, the won, also suffered losses against the dollar, dropping to its lowest this month as a result of the growing tensions in the region.

    Australian markets are also somewhat affected, while the state of the markets in Japan is unclear since the country was celebrating a holiday and the market was not open. The American stock market also suffered amid the news, as did the stock markets in London, Paris, and Frankfurt.

    So, what happened exactly?

    North Korea, which has been more active in its testing of military weapons over the past few years, announced its intentions to fire missiles into Guam, which is officially a US-controlled territory. It is important to note that the Korean war never officially ended, so at least on paper relations between the United States and North Korea are not good.

    In recent months tensions with North Korea came to light also because the communist state released a prisoner who was an American citizen, who reached the US in a terrible physical state. The young man showed signs of extensive brain damage; his condition was so bad that it completely baffled American doctors, and he soon died. This story rattled the West and caused people to speculate that North Korea is up to something.

    Instead of addressing North Koreaís plans of attack through the accepted diplomatic channels, Trump took to Twitter to talk about retaliation, and then reaffirmed in an interview that he is ready to go to war if North Korea does attack any American territories.

    This newly-added level of serious political insecurity rattled the global financial markets. The dollar marked new decreases against the yen. In addition, the yen is gaining on the USD due to issues with the American treasury and a possible default coming in the next two to three months.

    Clearly this is a complex issue. So far neither country has attacked, but considering that President Trump and Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un have got to be the two most unpredictable leaders in the world right now, tensions are definitely growing steadily. Make sure you watch out for any related news and see how the markets are responding as more information is flowing in.



    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #6 on: August 14, 2017, 04:32:44 PM »
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  • GBP/AUD Technical Outlook & H4 Chart

    The bears are back this week to make new lows.

    After the GBP/AUD recorded its highest level this year at 1.7647 in May, it turned back to decline by more than 1350 pips and itís trading now at 1.6480. Today the Australian Dollar rose in the beginning of the week because of the tension between North Korea and the United States, in addition to China's foreign ministry saying there is no future in a China-U.S. trade war and adding that issues of trade and North Korea are not connected. The ministry also said that China pays great attention to protecting its intellectual property rights and says the essence of U.S.-China trade is mutually beneficial and a win-win.

    The GBP/AUD currency pair is trading inside a downside price channel which may lead the pair to new lows this week. The pairís trading between support and resistance areas representative at the trend lines and itís expected that the pair will break the downside trend line to decline further. The moving average is trading above the prices which supports the negative vision, while the Stochastic indicator hasn't shown us the sell signal yet.

    The Next Few Days

    After we learned the outlook for the pair is down, we can take sell positions at the resistance levels, which means we can take sell positions now at the current level 1.6480, sell again if it reaches 1.6560, and place a third sell position at 1.6640, keeping our target for all of them at 1.6310.

    This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the Average Earnings Index and the retail sales. In addition, we expect the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for the Australian bank and the Unemployment Rate.



    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #7 on: August 15, 2017, 03:29:13 PM »
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  • GBP/NZD Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

    We're waiting for the neckline breaking for the rally of the price.

    After the GBP/NZD currency pair recorded its highest level this year at 1.8945 in May it turned back to decline by more than 1600 pips and itís now trading 1.7700. Today the pair slipped down after the negative CPI data from the UK released this morning came at 2.6%, less than the forecasted 2.7%.

    The GBP/NZD pair is trading in a series of corrective waves to exceed the 61.8% Fibonacci. Then it would move between 61.8% and 50% and itís expected that it will rise in the next trading days to mark new highs this month. If we take a look at the chart below we would recognize a tow bottom pattern (which is a reversal pattern), which may change the market direction to the upside - that is in case the prices break the neckline at 1.7885.

    The Next Few Days

    From this simple analysis of the pair we can buy it now at the current level at 1.7700, keeping our target at 1.7850. We have to go out of the market and wait for the breaking up from the neckline and take another buy position, keeping our target at 1.8230 in case the pair is still trading above the trend line.

    This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the Average Earnings Index and the retail sales and has no news from New Zealand except the GDT price index.



    Offline John Botha

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #8 on: August 16, 2017, 02:11:13 AM »
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    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #9 on: August 16, 2017, 04:33:07 PM »
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  • EUR/SGD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

    We have an extremely rapid upward trend but it seems like the peak has been reached.

    It is difficult to imagine a more rapid upward trend than we can see on the EUR/SGD chart. The Euro strengthened against many currencies, but this did not lead to such a significant increase relative to another currency. At the moment it is likely that the price has reached a peak, especially amid disappointing statistics from the Eurozone. This week the market received data that indicates slower economic growth in the EU. Germany's GDP in the 2nd quarter amounted to only 0.8% yoy, while the market expected a GDP growth of 1.9%. The volumes of industrial manufacturing in the Eurozone fell in June by 0.6%, although this is in line with expectations. The eurozone's GDP is only 0.6% in Q2, which is also in line with the expectation of investors.

    Thus, the Euro doesn't have enough stimulus for growth. The Singapore dollar gets the opportunity to consolidate at least at the current levels and prevent a further falling in price. During the last five months the SGD has changed in price from 1.4845 EUR up to EUR 1.602. It should be noted that the Singapore dollar is now at the level of November 2015. This is another reason why we say that the peak has been reached.

    Next week the Singapore dollar can be supported due to the release of new statistics about industrial production volumes for July and the consumer prices index. The latest data on the economy of Singapore is showing a pretty good economic situation: retail sales in June grew by 1.9% and continue to grow for the fourth consecutive month.



    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #10 on: August 17, 2017, 03:04:27 PM »
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  • USD/CHF Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

    We forecast a bullish movement for the pair in the recent future.

    Today we would focus our analysis on the USD/CHF currency pair. The price recently managed to reach areas above 0.9639, and we expect this bullish momentum to continue, possibly as fr as 0.9800.

    After trading between 0.9639-0.9600 for several days (which are the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci levels), the pair overcame this fluctuation and reached a new high at 0.9733. The old resistance at 0.9639 turned into a support level, while the pair acquired a new resistance at 0.9763 (which also helps to form a double top pattern on the chart).

    Now the price of the USD/CHF can be seen oscillating between 0.9693 and 0.9763. It is demonstrating a markedly bullish character; the RSI indicator also agrees that the pair is located in a bullish trend.

    This is why we expect that the USD/CHF would be able to break its nearby resistance level at 0.9763 and continue moving upward. Our next resistance today is located at 0.9800 and might also be tested, if the first one is successfully overcome. As long as the pair is able to stay above its older channel at 0.9639-0.9600, then expect further growth.

    At the moment of this articleís publication the pair is trading around 0.9650 and most trading indicators show a strong sell suggestion.


    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #11 on: August 22, 2017, 03:45:54 PM »
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  • GBP/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart
    We forecast a further bearish movement for the pair in the near future.

    Today for our analysis we would look at the GBP/USD currency pair. The GBP/USD is currently showing a similar behaviour as on Friday.

    In general, we can definitely say that the British pound is still under pressure due to the United Kingdomís Brexit negotiations with the European Union, as well as internal issues pertaining to inflation rates. This is why we can expect the pound to drop in value compared to other major currencies - perhaps not as sharply as it did right after the Brexit referendum results in 2016, but just as surely. Unless there is a major crisis in the United States that pulls the dollar down, then we would most likely see the USD make gains against the GBP.

    What is important for the pair right now is that it is steadily moving closer to the nearby resistance level at 1.2930, which is also a notable point of bearish divergence for the price. This is why we can expect the GBP/USD rate to fail to overcome this level, and instead retract back down to the support level at 1.2844.



    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #12 on: August 23, 2017, 01:50:14 PM »
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  • NZD/JPY: Short Review and Forecast
    The downward trend was formed a month ago and continues amid positive economic news from Japan. The NZD is under the pressure of decreased prices for food and raw materials.

    The rates of the NZD/JPY since the beginning of the month are in the frames of the downward trend formed just a month ago. Despite the recent positive data about economy of New Zealand, where we can see a Federal budget surplus by 1.5 billion NZD, the New Zealand currency fell against major currencies. At the same time, it should be noted that the NZD did not have enough incentives for growth amid the absence of news about the economy. In addition, the NZD was under the pressure of the decreased prices for raw materials and food, which reached annual minimums this week. The price for wheat fell from $560 down to $403. At the same time the JPY had many stimuli to strengthen.

    The PMI index of business activity in August was 52.8 against the expected level of 52.3. The volume of imports and exports grew less than the expected - 16.3% versus 13.4%, respectively, and in the long term increased the pressure on the trade balance. However, in July the trade surplus in Japan narrowed by 17%, though it's 418 billion yen, exceeding the expectations of investors. A week earlier the yen strengthened due to the unexpected GDP growth by 1% and an increase in consumer spending which was almost twice higher than the market expectation. Therefore, the Japanese economy now looks better for investors.

    Tomorrow the NZD may get a chance to strengthen, if new data about the trade balance of New Zealand pleases investors. At the moment, oscillators (MACD, Stochastics, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the oversold zone. The deals to BUY would be the most effective in this situation. There's a possibility to make a profit on the expected price correction.



    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #13 on: August 29, 2017, 03:44:43 PM »
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  • EUR/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

    The EUR/JPY is at a crossroads after the channel breaking.

    This month the euro has moved against the Japanese Yen within around 370 pips. Although the prices broke the price channel down, the pair didnít decline a lot this month and it returned back to trade now at 130.75 around this monthís opening price. In our last report we recommended to buy the pair around 130.73 and the pair is back now to the same levels - it didnít hit our target, so we can close our previous order now and think about another opportunity.

    The EUR/JPY pair broke the channel down and retested it, and the sell signal is still valid. Although it rose to test the key resistance level 131.38, we can keep our negative vision for the pair; that is in case it is still trade below the resistance level. We can wait for the Stochastic indicator at 96 level to cross over to sell the pair.

    The Next Few Days

    Based on this simple analysis of the pair after breaking the channel we would wait for a sell opportunity. Once the prices break the moving average down we would sell the pair, perhaps around 129.40. We would keep our first target at 126.24 and the second one at 122.35, that is in case the pair is still trading below the resistance level 131.38.

    This week the market does not offer much in terms of hot economic news from the European Union or Japan but we have to be careful about the American employment change and the jobs report on Friday.


    Offline Super Forex

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    Re: Forex analysis by SuperForex
    « Reply #14 on: August 30, 2017, 04:55:58 PM »
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  • XAU/USD: Short Review & Forecast

    A new round of geopolitical tensions rapidly raised the value of Gold to its 10-month maximum.

    As expected, the prices for Gold began to rise rapidly and exceeded the psychological level of $1,300, even earlier than we hoped. Gold started to rise from August 25, according to the results of the economic symposium in Jackson Hole where Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen didn't make any statements regarding the further monetary policy in the United States. This disappointed investors who expected to hear some confirmation of a tightening monetary policy. The U.S currency fell and reached the level of January 2015 against the Euro. Thus, the value of Gold has also increased due to the weakened USD.

    This week the Gold got another incentive for strengthening based on increased geopolitical tensions. Yesterday North Korea successfully ran a ballistic rocket that flew over Japanese territories and landed in the Pacific Ocean, near the Japanese island Hokkaido. The demand for safe assets immediately increased then. As a result, the price for Gold reached $1,322, but then stabilized to the level of 1,309 dollars, which is the highest price since October 2016.

    After yesterday's peak at $1,322, the line of resistance has slightly shifted up. After the new round of geopolitical tensions we can expect a stabilizing of the prices for Gold as well as of the demand for safe assets. In the near future the price for Gold could retreat back to the level of $1,300 - $1,305. The rates will continue in the frames of the upward trend which was formed a few months ago. In this situation the most optimal course of action would be the short deals, which is also confirmed by the MACD oscillator.