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Special sections => Gambling Library => Topic started by: Bally6354 on November 24, 2013, 02:13:43 pm

Title: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 24, 2013, 02:13:43 pm
Hello

 This could be a great area where we share info on gambling related material.

My favourite game is Roulette and I have many books on the subject. So I will attempt to re-read them all and share some info.

I make an effort to try and re-invest some of my roulette winnings into books that I think look interesting. Many people do something similar in all areas of life....like taking that P.C. course to improve your skills and job prospects. So why should our gambling enterprises be any different.

One thing I am not looking for in a roulette book is the 'holy grail'. I would be constantly dissapointed if that was the case. What I am looking for is to hopefully learn one little piece of info that I can add to what I already know or maybe get an idea or two that can spark some creative thinking.

So on with the show.....

The first book I am going to review is 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison.

I just received it yesterday and I am almost finished. I have known about this book for several years and the claims by the author of a 7% edge over a 00 wheel. It has kind of had mixed reviews on the various forums.

The centrepiece of the book is the 3Q/A reverse method. I will need to explain this in my own words so as not to infringe on any copyright. Thankfully it is not a complicated method and I was surprised by the simplicity of it. I thought it might be much more complicated than what it is.

I will run some tests and come back and explain the idea with my results and we can see if it holds up to tha author's claims. I am not holding my breathe to be honest...but hey, you never know!

cheers
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 24, 2013, 03:10:56 pm
This is my interpretation of the method...

You will have 2 groups of numbers. Let's call them A and B.

A = The 1-6 sixline and the 31-36 sixline.

B = The 10,11,13,14 quad, the 17,18,20,21 quad and the 25,26,28,29 quad.

Now what you need to do is go up to the marquee and look at the last 5 numbers.

22
7
11
33
3 (the last number)

Put in either the A or B marking where appropriate.....

22
7
11  B
33  A
3    A

Now you look to see if either the A or B is dominant.

In this case the A is dominant with a ratio of 2:1.

So you will play the opposite of the dominant (which was A) and play B.

However you will not start playing for B until you see another appearance of the B.

When B does make another appearance...play it for 3 spins.

Quit on a win or quit after 3 losses.

Let's see what happens...

22
7
11   B
33   A
3     A  (B is the qualifier)
--
11   B (This triggers the bet)
32   L
35   L
30   L (Stop here after 3 losses)

What you would do now is wait for another B to qualify and this re-triggers the bet for a further 3 spins.

33
28   B (This re-triggers the bet)
28   W (Stop here on a win)

What you do now is move to a new table and start the whole process again.

Like I said, it's not that complicated. There are a few extra rules that I will add in the next post.

cheers
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Jarabo002 on November 24, 2013, 03:26:12 pm
Thanks Bally

Please, tell us more. 8)
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: weddings on November 24, 2013, 03:46:04 pm
any reason why he choose those selections at A and B? Also will it be the same selection for european roulette?
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 24, 2013, 04:03:04 pm
any reason why he choose those selections at A and B? Also will it be the same selection for european roulette?

Hello weddings

 No! There is no reason given for the selections.

 Yes! It applies to both single 0 and 00 roulette.


The few extra rules to throw into the mix are as follows.....

Let's say you don't have either a dominant A or B after 5 spins...

Then continue to note the results and when either A or B wins for the first time...Then that qualifies the other one. (remember to wait for the trigger)

Here is the other important rule and which leads to a table not qualifying....

The A or B that you are going to bet on must NOT have come up in two consecutive spins during the qualification process.

and the last one.....

Let's say the 5th spin in the qualification process is the B and that's what you are going to bet on (B) If it did not also appear on the previous spin, you do not need to wait for another B as the trigger. Start betting on the B now.

That's it guys!

I am away to test it now.

cheers
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 24, 2013, 04:38:27 pm
Here are a few example games:
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Felix02721 on November 24, 2013, 05:07:55 pm
Played this a few times, doesn't win all that much. A better bet for the 0/00 wheel is 5 on the 1/4 line, 10 on the second dozen, and another 5 on the 31/34 line. Wins about every other spin, good for the up and pull players.  Look at the numbers on the wheel, you'll see what I mean.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Number Six on November 24, 2013, 06:29:17 pm
I like this section, I'm sure it could help to filter out real material from useless literature, and I am more than sure that this book belongs in the latter category. In fact, probably many about "gambling" do, since they are not educational.

And about this particular bet; at what point does a mindless claim like a 7% edge become false advertising? It's just another system to be played for fun at one's own risk. In fact, claiming a 7% edge with this bet is criminal.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: TwoCatSam on November 24, 2013, 09:50:51 pm
I own this book and have studied it quite a bit.

By the way, it is for the 00 wheel only.  I can show you that in the book.  It's in the letters at the end.

As to the bet, it does seem to win a vast majority of the times, but it does lose enough to make me question the 7% statement.  And that was on some book by some other author.  But he did do it on the Zuma, I remember.

The "hit and run" factor is what puts me off.  If the bet is good, it will be good all day today and up until next Tuesday!  You do not have to swoop in like an eagle on a fish.  Just play until you are tired.

Sam
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 24, 2013, 10:44:42 pm

By the way, it is for the 00 wheel only.  I can show you that in the book.  It's in the letters at the end.


What page is that on Sam?

On page 228 where he talks about the 'Business plan'....

He mentions gathering data for both the European and American wheel.

''Then, you need to gather table data from the roulette version  (European vs. American) you expect to play.''

This suggests it is playable on both.

cheers

p.s. Just thinking about it and not having a go at you Sam....but it would be ridicuous for him to suggest the method is only suitable for 00. If anything....he should be imploring players to look for the single 0 wheel when playing this. His 7% might hold up a bit longer.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: TwoCatSam on November 24, 2013, 11:24:38 pm
Bally

Today, in Oklahoma, it's colder than a witch's patootie!!  The book is not in the house.  I will find it tomorrow and get you page and paragraph.

Could it be he updated the book?

Sam
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 25, 2013, 01:22:49 pm
Sam, I am pretty certain he did update the book unless I am thinking of Lee Tutor's book, lol.

Anyway....I tested 1000 spins at Spielbank Wiesbaden on a single 0 wheel and it's up 60 units.

What I did was just go across the card using the first 20 spins from each column.

I was impressed by the winning streaks it threw up.  There were several days where it won or broke even on all 12/15 games.

Where it breaks down is when you get the double loss (6 units) in a game and the other games start winning on the third spin meaning you break even.

Remember....Ellison is claiming a flat bet advantage, so I am not using any kind of progression and I think that would be too dangerous anyhow when those double losses clump which they have a tendency to do.

I will test it some more today and see what happens!

cheers
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 25, 2013, 01:40:04 pm
Here is a screenshot of how I am testing it.

[attachimg=1]


One thing I noticed....

In this game, A has appeared twice and B once. So you would be betting for B after the next B trigger.

However A is the dominant one and it appears in 7 of the next 8 spins after the 5 spin qualification process. I don't like betting against what the wheel is throwing up and Ellison kind of contradicts himself because he talks earlier on the book about not going against the wheel.  :footinmouth:


p.s.

In the pic above....

Orange = A
Green = B

The circled number starts the attack.

This attack went to the second game and resulted in a loss of 3 units.

Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 25, 2013, 02:15:00 pm
I decided to run this day on a bit more because it shows a lot of the rules in operation.

[attachimg=1]

Game 1. = -3.

Game 2. Does not qualify hence the X. (The A has come out consecutively)

Game 3. It's 2 each and then A appears. Play B. = +6.

Game 4. = -3.

Game 5. = +2.

Game 6. = +3.

Game 7. I made a mistake. It does qualify and you would play B after the 20. = +6.




Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 25, 2013, 02:28:03 pm
I ran it on to the finish!

[attachimg=1]

Game 8. = +3.

Game 9. = break even.

Game 10. = +3.

Game 11. = +2.

Game 12. = +6.

Total = 11 games played from 12 (1 not qualified)  +25.


cheers
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: warrior on November 25, 2013, 02:35:42 pm
In my view you can pick any two dozen and play the same game ,it will be the same.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 25, 2013, 03:01:52 pm
Don't take this the wrong way guys.....but we can we keep on topic.

This particular method is not a 'two dozen's method'.

It's either 2 six-lines = 12 numbers.

or

3 quads = 12 numbers.

cheers


Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Number Six on November 25, 2013, 03:34:04 pm
But, the numbers are irrelevant, right?

There's no reason those groups will hit at a rate equivalent to a 7% edge (which by the way on a 00 wheel is enormous; claiming such is really something. Is there any data in the book that backs this up?). It's all about the trigger, so it can be logically played with any groups of 12 numbers. It still remains inconceivable in my eyes that this bet selection has any legs at all. Good luck with the tests, though.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: TwoCatSam on November 25, 2013, 03:47:49 pm
Bally

In the book I have, he absolutely does use a progression, so there must be a new edition.

Sam
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 25, 2013, 07:15:32 pm
But, the numbers are irrelevant, right?

There's no reason those groups will hit at a rate equivalent to a 7% edge.

Here is the thing Number Six,

 Let's amuse ourselves for a minute and say Spike actually did have some kind of edge on the E/C's.

So I go to the casino and watch him play and he hits more E/C's right than the guy next to him flipping a coin.

BUT....he doesn't tell me how he does it! (fat chance)

So maybe there is a method to the madness. (but I honestly doubt it in this case....however.....I wouldn't necessarily discount it in all cases) Otherwise we are all just wasting our time and I certainly don't think that.

cheers
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 25, 2013, 07:19:31 pm
Bally

In the book I have, he absolutely does use a progression, so there must be a new edition.

Sam

Sam

 He does offer up different strategies for playing his 3Q/A in Chapter 3.

I am just testing it flat because he is claiming an edge.


cheers
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 25, 2013, 07:51:57 pm
This is where it unravels.


[attachimg=1]


-19 in these 8 games.

A few double losses and wins on the third attempt clustering together will put you in a hole using a progression. It's bad enough flat betting.

So I am done with this one.

A nice try..... no 7% edge flat betting as claimed IMO.

Bally's rating......4/10. (There are a few good anecdotes in the book)
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Sputnik on November 25, 2013, 08:05:32 pm
This is where it unravels.


(Attachment Link)


-19 in these 8 games.

A few double losses and wins on the third attempt clustering together will put you in a hole using a progression. It's bad enough flat betting.

So I am done with this one.

A nice try..... no 7% edge flat betting as claimed IMO.

Bally's rating......4/10. (There are a few good anecdotes in the book)

I think you give up to easy.
-19 in 8 games is your last post, but before that you made 12 session +25 units.
That add up as with any good method there will be bad days and fluctuation.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 25, 2013, 08:09:13 pm
Sputnik

 I have tested 1,500 spins in total on a single 0 wheel!

It is slightly ahead. I won't be playing it for real money.

cheers
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 25, 2013, 09:26:25 pm
2 of the main reasons why I would not play this for real money.

1) I don't like methods that don't include the 0/00 (apart from as a hedge bet)

The 0/00 comprises of 2.7% the same as any other number on the wheel.

Any method is leaving itself open to attack by ignoring the 0/00.

I don't buy all this hedge the 0/00 nonsense. What if I am playing black and the 27/30 split starts appearing?
Do I start hedging the 27/30. Where does it end?


2) I don't like a method that tries to predict what's coming up in 10 spins time.

Let's say you are betting B after the qualification process.

The next 5 numbers are.....

15
31
16
5
13*

ok....so now you are in business betting B for the next 3 spins.

This process could have covered 13 spins from start to finish.

IMO, you can't claim an edge by predicting 10+ spins in advance using a mechanical method.

You might as well tell me what next week's lottery numbers are.

An edge is more likely to be achieved on a spin by spin basis IMO.


These are just my reasons why I would not play this method with real cash.

Don't let that put you off from testing or playing it.

It was 30 units up after 1,500 spins (not 1,500 placed bets) So this in no way represents any large testing data.

cheers
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: XXVV on November 25, 2013, 10:03:06 pm
Thanks for reviewing this book. Most seem to written about his 'flaky' method which one can quickly see has little merit and the edge claim based on such a small sample is inappropriate but probably the publisher ( who is/ was a baccarat champion) needed to pull in some publicity with the claim.


What has interested me about the book was the professional gambling psychology which is referred to through a series of short and sharp very readable chapters. It is written in that sometimes squirm -making, over- familiar US style ( sorry to my American friends - it maybe a cultural thing) that John Patrick applies albeit in his case with a New Jersey style and with huge and very worthwhile experience.


A good Editor might have cut the attempted humour and the alien passage but it aims at the Las Vegas market.


Nevertheless it is on my bookshelf because of the compressed wisdom therein in spite of its shortcomings.


Also because of the bizarre real life experiences of the Author - not referred to in the book - and the fact that Mr Ellison did reply to my email although he wondered how I got his address - I wish him well.
XXVV
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: warrior on November 25, 2013, 10:25:37 pm
Don't take this the wrong way guys.....but we can we keep on topic.

This particular method is not a 'two dozen's method'.

It's either 2 six-lines = 12 numbers.

or

3 quads = 12 numbers.

cheers
no I did not mean 2 dozen, at the same time ,same stratagie but pick 1st  and 2 nd ex. Then spin 5 and the same as his method.same results.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bally6354 on November 25, 2013, 11:31:22 pm
My apologies Warrior!






Nevertheless it is on my bookshelf because of the compressed wisdom therein in spite of its shortcomings.



Hello XXVV

That is the best aspect of the book. It is obviously written by someone who has a good understanding of casinos.

I also like the quotes from famous people to start each chapter.

In fact....the best quote in my opinion is from David Sklansky.

''The pro knows to play by the month rather than by the day''

cheers
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: RouletteFan on November 25, 2013, 11:40:10 pm
'The pro knows to play by the month rather than by the day''

i agree with you bally
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: TwoCatSam on April 12, 2015, 02:53:38 pm
I have read that book many times.  I recall him saying somewhere--may have been on-line--that it was for American wheel only.  That's why I bought and read it.

Sam
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: horus on April 12, 2015, 03:51:25 pm
Sam, you might have never read this! It is a conversation between Ellison and Gregory Leibon.

https://math.dartmouth.edu/archive/m5f02/public_html/files/ellis.htm
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: TwoCatSam on April 12, 2015, 09:13:56 pm
Read it and studied it.  Very interesting.

Some thing Ellison a kook.   I don't think he is.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: XXVV on April 12, 2015, 10:09:12 pm
Thank you horus for reminding us about RD Ellison, and for publishing the communications with Leibon. He was surprised when I contacted him wondering how I had achieved this but the answer was in his book. His reputation may have been impacted by some legal issues which you can research. What I enjoyed most with his book, setting aside his naive techniques, beliefs and attempts at humour, were the practical insights into psychological play.

I cannot see why there should be any advantage in applying Ellison's efforts to the American wheel as opposed to the French wheel. In the long term it would always balance even despite the evident column three clusterings on the American wheel. It comes down to when you start and stop, and that alone may not be good enough, let alone using small samples and toy roulette wheels.

An answer to beat roulette is to look deeper, below the surface, and find short cycle patterns that are regular predictable phenomena but invisible to the untrained eye. No doubt there are other ways also. Those are problems easily solved given sufficient time ( 10,000 hours - Tipping Point).

LG Holloway shows some remarkable and practical insights, and most importantly goes into the psychology of the player which to my mind is the most difficult and engaging task for the serious professional. Credit must be given to his outstanding, inconsistent and controversial Publisher Lyle Stuart whose passion was high stakes gambling, particularly Baccarrat in which he won major tournaments. Read the obituary in the Guardian. That in itself is some piece of work.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Bayes on April 13, 2015, 09:22:37 am
It's an interesting read, but you wonder what the point is. I mean, so what if you know what the cause or "force" is that makes roulette outcomes the way they are? even if you knew that the ultimate cause was quantum physics or whatever, or could precisely measure the initial conditions like ball velocity, the geometry of the wheel etc, it still wouldn't explain why the sequence of outcomes has no obvious pattern to it.

Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Xander on April 13, 2015, 05:20:18 pm
"Short cycle patterns and psychology" doesn't enable the player to win in the long run.  Physics, and inefficiencies in
the gaming device/ dealer does.  The tipping point is experience with the live wheels, knowledge of wheel design, assembly, playing conditions, and statistically relevant data.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: ybot on March 14, 2016, 03:20:45 pm
http://www.roulette30.com/2014/05/roulette-player-vs-math-professor-dialog.html

This debate is really interesting. Ellison, Snell, Leibon.

Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Gizmotron on March 14, 2016, 08:22:29 pm
http://www.roulette30.com/2014/05/roulette-player-vs-math-professor-dialog.html

This debate is really interesting. Ellison, Snell, Leibon.

I remember Ellison was sued by 2005 by FTC for his statements

That's fine and dandy, I read the whole thing, so what is Ellison's ground breaking hypothesis regarding independent events of sequences of spins on a fair Roulette table?

My opinion is that 200 continuous spins are in fact connected packets of opportunistic variations of characteristics that ebb & flood continuously as spins are added and calculated as meaningful.

So my question, if ever asked of Probability experts, both frequentists or absolutists, can a sequence of  independent outcomes produce meaning? Can that meaning, if it in fact exists, be more than just the fallacy of statistical expectations? The Zen of probability can't be about saying nothing and allowing unspoken assumptions to be the platitudes of the consensus undefended.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Mike on March 16, 2016, 08:40:18 am
That's fine and dandy, I read the whole thing, so what is Ellison's ground breaking hypothesis regarding independent events of sequences of spins on a fair Roulette table?

Gizmo,

He doesn't have one. The whole "argument" is based on Ellison's misunderstanding of what independence means. I'm surprised Snell didn't set him straight to begin with. You can have endless arguments which just amount to semantics when opposing parties define their terms differently. For two events to be independent means nothing more than P(A|B) = P(A) -- The probability of event A given B is the same as the probability of event A. It doesn't mean "free from influence" as Ellison thinks.

I've noticed that gambler's often want to interpret technical terms as they're used in everyday discourse. Another common mistake is to dismiss Probability Theory because "it's only a theory". But "theory" in the scientific sense isn't a guess or hypothesis, it's the most rigorously tested and reliable form of knowledge there is.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Gizmotron on March 16, 2016, 04:02:16 pm
Thanks for the reply. What a joke. I was all ready for some interesting debate.

Anyone seeking a subjective conclusion while ignoring the obvious is asking for it. So this thing is nothing like the shoot out at the OK Coral in Tombstone Arizona. It's more like an anti-climatic soap opera.

Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Sputnik on January 11, 2019, 09:23:29 am

I buy the book Gamble To Win but can not find the 3Q Angle system.
My book's name is GAMBLE TO WIN - A COMPLETE GUIDE FOR THE SERIOS PLAYER

I notice there is two books with the same cover but the other books name is only GAMBLE TO WIN
Can some one sell this book to me that include the 3Q Angle system or show me the right book.

I attach the two different covers of the book.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: james on January 12, 2019, 03:38:45 pm
Gamble to Win Roulette is the book that contains the 3Q System. Check Amazon or other book store near you. In Amazon, you can even browse some pages of the book.
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Sputnik on January 12, 2019, 04:03:49 pm
 Thanks, I could see with the description of the book, first cover, include 3Q Angle system.
 I understand that R.D. Ellison using American wheel and the spread using the chip placement create two opposite spreads on the wheel layout.
 
 Is very difficult to achieve the same spread on the wheel layout using the same Line/Corner bets on Europen wheel.
 Table/Wheel numbers are different and you don't get same even spread.

 Look at the internet an no one seems to come up with a solution for that.
 Find some nice Bi-Modal charts from Pierre Basieux, so we can play the same even spread on the wheel layout, but the chip placement is different on the table layout.

 Someone can add and reduce chips from the alternatives I attach to get an even spread.
 Thanks and credits to Pierre Basieux RIP :rose:
 
Title: Re: 'Gamble to win: Roulette' by R.D. Ellison
Post by: Sputnik on January 12, 2019, 05:06:24 pm


 R.D. Ellison Selection European Wheel

Six splits for each dozen selection on the table layout
Covering 6 numbers on each side using Bi-Modal spread with a total of 12 numbers.

 See attachment: