08 The key to the final solution - Marigny de Grilleau - By Sten Nordland


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Topic: The key to the final solution - Marigny de Grilleau - By Sten Nordland  (Read 11793 times)

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Offline Teorulte

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So is there a strategy here that will be positive after >100 000 placed bets?

Offline Sputnik

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I once reach 3.0 STD flat betting and i know members who play upon same principals and make money each day on regular basis - but not flat betting, but who cares.
I won't mention names.

Study, explore, observe.

Offline Sputnik

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The Ecart windows strength.

We deal with independent random flow where singles and series come in any combination.
As you can see with the simulation software above so does the Ecart grow and getting weaker in waves.
The nature of the game is chaos with tiny, medium and large waves of imbalance or some times even out.

Lets assume you would play this for real with real money.
Then you should know some rules that effect the strength behind the bias window of events.

Say that you search for 3.0 Ecart windows before you are ready to attack.
Then the minim window is 16 events or trails.

Then you have to set a limit that the 3.0 STD should appear during 16 to 30 events and not more or less.
Maybe you set your limit to 16 to 25 events / trails.

This is because if you have a stretch window with 50 events and a Ecart of 3.0.
Then parts of the events during this window is underrepresented events / trails.
That makes the weaker stretch of the window.

Then the likelihood with equilibrium to have some events / trails already been showed - can effect the future drop point to become weaker or with same weak stretch over length as the window with 50 events.
That makes it harder to catch.

So with other words so does the probability window being small give a more rapid drop point overall.
As none of the underrepresented events / trails had a show during the Ecart window.

This is about the length and how much you stretch the bias and limit with your Ecart window - that in the end effect what kind or regression towards the mean you can expect.