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Abstract experiment.

Started by Sputnik, August 01, 2014, 04:37:42 PM

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Sputnik

Abstract experiment:

I was thinking about how you could change the probability using the even money bets.
My line of thinking was about roulette and dozen play, because it seems that two dozen always dominate and i wanted to change that into even money bets with the same probability.

I start testing and come up with three states or three clustering sequences with no other possibility.
Then i reckon does has to have the same probability as dozen play.

What i know from the past about dozen play is that 1 dozen can sleep for 32 times in a row and that 2 dozen can hit 32 times in a row.
I also notice that is very common that 2 dozen hit 34567 times in a row on regular basis.

Should also mention that one dozen hit 12 to 13 times in a row during 1 million trails.
So this is the benchmark we dealing with.

So in a nutshell i wanted to capture this phenomenon using the even money bets.
But the staking is not the same and the payouts is not the same, but the probability is the same.

Lets say i follow one state to repeat with even money bets, then i get +1 unit.
But if i follow one dozen to repeat with one dozen play bet, then i get +2 units.

Now both has the same probability being 1 in 3 and give me 33% to hit a repeat.
Now lets assume we lose our first bet, then we have two states that show or two dozen.

Lets say we will cover them betting:

Then i need to bet twice to cover the last two states that show with even money bet.
This mean i will break even with +0 if i get one of them states to show or i will get -1 unit (almost break even).

Here above i have 66% to hit or break or almost break even.
But if i lose then all three states show and i will be down -3 units.

If it was dozen and one of the two last dozen show again i would break even +0.
Also 66% probability.
If i would lose, then i would be down -3 units.

That is how it is different.

Sputnik

The three states:

Lets define them and you only have three possibility - 1 in 3.

1) When two series chop after each other, then you have one state and then can chop many times in a row with any length.

They has to be at least two series that chop after each other.

BB PPP

And as i mention so can they come with any length:

BBB PP BBBB PPP BB

2) The other state is when you get series and singles alternating one each.
This is one present state.

BBB P BBBB

And they can come with any length:

BB P BBB P BBBB P BB

3) The last state is series of singles and they can come with any length.
To be a series of singles you need at least two.

PBP

And they can come with any length:

BPBPBPBP

Sputnik

Observation:

Here i cut the random states into sequential windows where you can see the domination clear as water.

There is three options:
First is that if you get one state to repeat, then you have domination - 33% probability ...
Second is if you get two states to repeat, then you have domination - 66% probability ...
Last is if you get all three states to show with no present domination.

NOTE:

I don't say you should play this way, this is illustration and education about domination.
I just want to show how the states look like.

LWWWLLWWWLWLLWWLWWLLL
WWWLWWWWLLL
WWWW

See attack file ...

Sputnik

Tiny, medium and large waves of domination:

Here i cut the random flow into how they unfold with domination with one or two states present.

You can see 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 trails of domination - raw play.
Comparing with three states you can see them hit 5 10 to 20 times in a row.

NOTE:

We need to develop a march to take advantage of the domination.
This is just illustration with example.

LWWLLL
WLWLLWWWWWLWLWWLWLWWWWLWWLLWLWLLL
WWWWWLWLWWWWWWWWWWWWLLL
WWWWLLWWWW

Sputnik

 
This is how it looks like:
Testing a march capture does waves ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1JADaRRDAw

Sputnik

.
I wanted to test this method flat betting.
It holds up pretty good.
But two last sample looks chaotic, it has to be fluctuation.
.






plolp

Interesting, but we don't understand your attack logic .
I resume your last exemple .

1
2
2
1
1 ...L  ?   why bet for a single?
2
2...W     .... OK
2
1
1....W ...OK
1
1
1
2
1...L ...OK
1 .............. why you don't bet for 1 ?
1
1
2
1 ....L  ...???
2 ...L ....OK
2

I like your théorie of departure .
But  the tests must always attack the same procédure .
What you say ?
Thank you .
Rien de plus normal, tout est étrange .

plolp

Yesterday T3 wiesbaden

can you choose your attacks  please ;

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R
R
N
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N
R
N
R
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N
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R
N
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N
R
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N
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R
N
Rien de plus normal, tout est étrange .