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Can regression making losing system become winning systems ?

Started by Sputnik, February 10, 2013, 12:40:38 PM

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Sputnik


I will test one of Turbo's dozen system and see if regression can save us from the negative expectation.

Sputnik


This is from Turbo's site at http://www.freewebs.com/turbogenius/4spinsequencesystem.htm
I hope he don't mind me post a copy here ...

4 SPIN SEQUENCE SYSTEM
(for 2 to 1 payoff bets)


Betting that a pattern of 4 spins won't repeat
(be identical to the previous 4 spins)
betting dozens (2:1) with $5.00 min bet
we need this progression for 4 spins :
$5-$5 (win +$5) (loss -$10)
$15-$15 (win +$5) (loss -$40)
$45-$45 (win +$5) (loss -$130)
$135-$135 (win +$5) (loss -$400)

The "only" time this system will lose a $400.00 bankroll is when a dozen repeats itself for 8 spins,
from the time we begin charting to the end of our 4 spins of play.
(note the 0 can influence this also)
So we will win at least $5.00 per every 4 spins,
and lose $400 (equal to 80 wins) when a dozen repeats itself 8 times,
or the same pattern repeats itself.
example : (40 spins RNG)
33
32
1
19
27
6
8
15
28
35
22
9
20
3
5
27
16
32
6
30
7
12
23
27
7
24
28
33
21
26
36
13
19
30
11
14
5
25
35
1
=========================
now, looking at it as dozens :
3
3
1
2
3
1
1
2
3
3
2
1
2
1
1
3
2
3
1
3
1
1
2
3
1
2
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
3
1
2
1
3
3
1
=========================
and finally as 4 spin sequences :
3312
3112
3321
2113
2313
1123
1233
2332
2312
1331
==========================
and now we can see where our wins are :
(wins shown as [] )
3312 (recorded)
3[1]12 outcome +$5.00
3[3]21 +$5.00
[2]113 +$5.00
2[3]13 +$5.00
[1]123 +$5.00
1[2]33 +$5.00
[2]332 +$5.00
23[1]2 +$5.00
[1]331 +$5.00
for this brief example of 40 spins, we have 9 wins for 9 sessions
and a profit of +$45.00 (minus the 4 spins for initial qaulification,
we have a profit of $45.00 for 35 spins...
or +$1.25 per spin average)
===========================
  now let's assume we backtrack so that right "after a win",
we begin a new session based on the previous 4 spins..
3312 initial qualification (recorded)
3[1] win, now we have 1231 as our sequence
123[3] win, now we have 1233
[2] win, now we have 2332
[1] win, now we have 3321
[2] win, now we have 3212
[1] win, now we have 2121
[1] win, now we have 1211
[3] win, now we have 2113
2[3] win, now we have 1323
13[1] win, now we have 3131
[1] win, now we have 1311
[2] win, now we have 3112
31[2] win, now we have 2312
[3] win, now we have 3123
3[2] win, now we have 2332
[3] win, now we have 3323
3[2] win, now we have 2332
23[1] win, now we have 2231
2[1] win, now we have 3121
3[3] win, now we have 2133
[1] win and end of data now,

We have 21 wins of $5.00 each for a period of 40 spins,
so if we don't count the 5 to qualify initially -
we have +$105.00 for 35 spins of play,
or +$3.00 per spin profit average.
==================================
Either way though, mathamatically we are up against the chance
that there will be a losing session once per each 80 wins.
It is an interesting idea though and I think very playable in a live
situation with little risk.

Note, in the above example there were no #0 shows.
If this happens, it's a loss (or is it ?)...
  I'm sure someone will think a little and cover the straight up number 0
with the correct amount of chips in order to make a profit should it show.
This will only slightly increase the bankroll needed but will cover the bet :)
Then, our only losing session will be an 8 spin repeat of a single dozen.
Be creative - once you have figured the 0 coverage bet,
play it with the columns also - try to figure ways to combine
both the dozens and columns into the mix at the same time.
This will make your profits 2X faster, and it may be possible to only
see a loss when we have a 4 spin repeat in the same 4 number group,
such as 1/4/7/10 which are all in the same dozen - and also all in the same column.
Try your own variations and experiments.

This is nothing "new", so please bend it to fit your table limits and
remember the risk(s) involved.

Cheers Ed
====================

Since there were some questions, I'll add another example from actuals
(picked at random)

Hamburg 20050716_1 (yesterday table 1)
(first we qualify)

# - dozen it's in (result) (new sequence)

6 - 1
28 - 3
0 - n/a
9 - 1
36 - 3
10 - 1
21 - 2 (we have 1312 as our sequence)
(so we are betting 1st spin on 2nd and 3rd dozen)
26 - 3 (win) (now we have 3123)
10 - 1 (win) (now we have 1231)
1 - 1 (loss - continue)
21 - 2 (loss - continue)
7 - 1 (win) (now we have 1121)
33 - 3 (win) (now we have 1213)
31 - 3 (win) (now we have 2133)
20 - 2 (loss - continue)
14 - 2 (win) (now we have 3322)
5 - 1 (win) (now we have 3221)
28 - 3 (loss - continue)
5 - 1 (win) (now we have 2131)
24 - 2 (loss - continue)
32 - 3 (win) (now we have 3123)
4 - 1 (win) (now we have 1231)
2 - 1 (loss - continue)
20 - 2 (loss - continue)
31 - 3 (loss - continue)
31 - 3 (win) (now we have 1233)
8 - 1 (loss - continue)
7 - 1 (win) (now we have 3311)
11 - 1 (win) (now we have 3111)
10 - 1 (win) (now we have 1111)
0 - n/a (loss - continue)
6 - 1 (loss - continue)
18 - 2 (win) (qualify due to 0)
26 - 3
26 - 3 (now we have 1233)
11 - 1 (loss - continue)
7 - 1 (win) (now we have 3311)
7 - 1 (win) (now we have 3111)
11 - 1 (win) (now we have 1111)
2 - 1 (loss - continue)
17 - 2 (win) (now we have 1112)
2 - 1 (loss - continue)
19 - 2 (win) .....

results +$100.00 using 5.00 table min.

chart :





Here's from actuals as I'm doing them off by hand :
(note started July 1st 2005 for a reference point)

(date / most repeats of a single dozen) (spins)

July 1 2005
table 1 - 6 repeats (264 spins)
table 2 - 4 repeats (154 spins)
table 4 - 7 repeats (261 spins)
table 5 - 10 repeats (213 spins) (1 losing session)
table 6 - 5 repeats (209 spins)
table 7 - 4 repeats (89 spins)
table 8 - 4 repeats (92 spins)
=====================
July 1 summary : 1,282 spins (512.8 sessions)
winnings : +$2,564.00 losings : -$400.00
day's balance +$2,164.00
=====================
July 2 2005
table 1 - 7 repeats (210 spins)
table 2 - 5 repeats (121 spins)
table 4 - 7 repeats (233 spins)
table 5 - 5 repeats (208 spins)
table 6 - 5 repeats (176 spins)
table 7 - 4 repeats (93 spins)
table 8 - 3 repeats (88 spins)
======================
July 2 summary : 1,129 spins (451.6 sessions)
winnings : +$2,258.00 losings : -$0.00
day's balance +$2,258.00
2 day balance +$4,422.00 for 2,411 spins
======================
July 3 2005
table 1 - 5 repeats (187 spins)
table 4 - 5 repeats (264 spins)
table 5 - 5 repeats (236 spins)
table 6 - 5 repeats (135 spins)
======================
July 3 summary : 822 spins (328.8 sessions)
winnings : +$1,644.00 losings : -$0.00
day's balance +$1,644.00
3 day balance +$6,066.00 for 3,233 spins

* 3 days into the test and we are up 6k which is equal to 15 bankrolls !

Ralph

You will need to win about 90 bankrolls to be on safer ground.

Sputnik



That in real life would be playing 1 Euro as base bet and 10 Euro as base bet.
That is a total of winning 6 bets to use the regresson as main strategy to operating with winning...

Sputnik

Quote from: Ralph on February 10, 2013, 01:09:00 PM
You will need to win about 90 bankrolls to be on safer ground.

How do you mean, i don't understand, can you elaborate a littel more about the subject.

Many Thanks

Ralph

Quote from: Sputnik on February 10, 2013, 01:13:48 PM
How do you mean, i don't understand, can you elaborate a littel more about the subject.

Many Thanks


You wrote you can lose a bankroll in every 80 sessions. If you reach 90 bankrolls, the probability of losing  is rather small.


A "Winning system"  need a very good start to stay a "winning system". It is possible, a lucky start will do it.


I  have got a long winning streak, the best way to keep it is to play less and lower after. Not shift to higher bets, which wipe it out in the first not avoidable bad sessions.

Sputnik


I not sure if we are on the same level, i only have to be ahead once and its the same with even money bets.
Take a progression like 10 20 30 then i win once and play with 1 Euro = 1 2 3 then i am winning with winnings.

The question is what the frame is for losing intervals?

BRRR
BBRR W
BBBR LW
RBBR W
RRRR W
RRBB LW
RBRB W
RBRB LLL
BRRR
RRBB W
BRBB W
BBBB W
RRRB LW
BRBR W
BRRR LW
BRBR LW
BRBB LLW
BRRB LW
RBRR LW
RBRB LLW




Ralph

It is enough to be ahead once, if we stay  a head!  The problems with all tests is they can not always be replicated.

Sputnik


-

On a scale from 1 to 10 regression comes as 8 out of 10.
Pretty solid if you ask me.

MarignyGrilleau

It seems to me that if you do not hit the first ten units profit the result would be the same as playing starting from 1 unit in the beginning.


Here is random.org from today.EC's.


WLBalance
2122
2222WWL10
2221LLW10
1121LWL11
1112LWL12
1121LWL13
2122WLW14
1122WLL15
2111WWL16
1111WLL17
2212LWW18
2221LWL19
2122WWW20
2222WWL21
1122LWL22
1122LLL16
2222LWL17
1211WWL18
1121WLW19
1122LLW19
2212LLW19
2221LWL20
1111LLW20
2221LLW20
2121WWL21
2222WWW22
2211LWL23
1111LWL24
2222LLL18
1112LLW18
1121LWL19
1111LWW20
1112LLW20
1111LLW20
2221LLW20
2112WLL21
2122LWW22
1111WWL23
1122LWL24
2111WWL25
1221LLW25
2111LLW25
2122LWL26
2211WLL27
2212LLW27
1222WWW28
2112LLW28
1221LLL22
1221LLL16
1122WWW17
1212WLW18
2222WWW19
2111WLL20
1221LLW20
1112WLL21
1222WLW22
1222LLL16
1212LWW17
2222WWW18
2112WLW19
2122LWW20
2212WLW21
2211LLW21
2221LWW22
1112LLL16
1112LLL10
1211WWW11
2212WLW12
2112WWL13
1221LLL7
2221WLL8
1211WWW9
1212LLW9
2111LWW10
2212WWW11

MarignyGrilleau

And here starting with one unit:



WLBalance
21220
2222WWL1
2221LLW1
1121LWL2
1112LWL3
1121LWL4
2122WLW5
1122WLL6
2111WWL7
1111WLL8
2212LWW9
2221LWL10
2122WWW11
2222WWL12
1122LWL13
1122LLL7
2222LWL8
1211WWL9
1121WLW10
1122LLW10
2212LLW10
2221LWL11
1111LLW11
2221LLW11
2121WWL12
2222WWW13
2211LWL14
1111LWL15
2222LLL9
1112LLW9
1121LWL10
1111LWW11
1112LLW11
1111LLW11
2221LLW11
2112WLL12
2122LWW13
1111WWL14
1122LWL15
2111WWL16
1221LLW16
2111LLW16
2122LWL17
2211WLL18
2212LLW18
1222WWW19
2112LLW19
1221LLL13
1221LLL7
1122WWW8
1212WLW9
2222WWW10
2111WLL11
1221LLW11
1112WLL12
1222WLW13
1222LLL7
1212LWW8
2222WWW9
2112WLW10
2122LWW11
2212WLW12
2211LLW12
2221LWW13
1112LLL7
1112LLL1
1211WWW2
2212WLW3
2112WWL4
1221LLL-2
2221WLL-1
1211WWW0
1212LLW0
2111LWW1
2212WWW2

MarignyGrilleau

It does not change fluctuation. Unless we can find a "better" entry point.
Cheers

Sputnik

2122
2222W10
2221LLW10
1121LW 11
1112LW12
1121LW13
2122W14
1122W15
2111W16
1111W17
2212LW18
2221LW19
2122W20
2222W21
1122LW22
1122LLL16
2222
1211W26
1121W27
1122LLW27
2212LLW27
2221LW28
1111LLW28
2221LLW28
2121W29
2222W30
2211LW31
1111LW32
2222LLL26
1112
1121LW37
1111LW38
1112LLW38
1111LLW38
2221LLW38
2112W39
2122LW40
1111W41
1122LW42
2111W43
1221W44
2111W45
2122LW46
2211W47
2212LLW47
1222W48
2112LLW48
1221LLL42
1221
1122
1212W52
2222W53
2111W54
1221LLW  54
1112W56
1222W57
1222LLL51
1212
2222W61
2112W62
2122LW63
2212W64
2211LLW64
2221LW65
1112LLL59
1112
1211
2212W69
2112W70
1221LLL64
2221
1211W74
1212LLW74
2111LW75
2212W76

Sputnik

 
-
Same numbers with different style of playing using regression with different results.
Bank 1 is 50 Euro.
Bank 2 is 5 Euro.

MarignyGrilleau

i see and i get it. So You end a session when you hit LLL. Cool.  :thumbsup: