I will test one of Turbo's dozen system and see if regression can save us from the negative expectation.

Betting that a pattern of 4 spins won't repeat (be identical to the previous 4 spins) betting dozens (2:1) with $5.00 min bet we need this progression for 4 spins : $5-$5 (win +$5) (loss -$10) $15-$15 (win +$5) (loss -$40) $45-$45 (win +$5) (loss -$130) $135-$135 (win +$5) (loss -$400) The "only" time this system will lose a $400.00 bankroll is when a dozen repeats itself for 8 spins, from the time we begin charting to the end of our 4 spins of play. (note the 0 can influence this also) So we will win at least $5.00 per every 4 spins, and lose $400 (equal to 80 wins) when a dozen repeats itself 8 times, or the same pattern repeats itself. example : (40 spins RNG) 33 32 1 19 27 6 8 15 28 35 22 9 20 3 5 27 16 32 6 30 7 12 23 27 7 24 28 33 21 26 36 13 19 30 11 14 5 25 35 1 ========================= now, looking at it as dozens : 3 3 1 2 3 1 1 2 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 3 2 3 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 1 2 1 3 3 1 ========================= and finally as 4 spin sequences : 3312 3112 3321 2113 2313 1123 1233 2332 2312 1331 ========================== and now we can see where our wins are : (wins shown as [] ) 3312 (recorded) 3[1]12 outcome +$5.00 3[3]21 +$5.00 [2]113 +$5.00 2[3]13 +$5.00 [1]123 +$5.00 1[2]33 +$5.00 [2]332 +$5.00 23[1]2 +$5.00 [1]331 +$5.00 for this brief example of 40 spins, we have 9 wins for 9 sessions and a profit of +$45.00 (minus the 4 spins for initial qaulification, we have a profit of $45.00 for 35 spins... or +$1.25 per spin average) ===========================   now let's assume we backtrack so that right "after a win", we begin a new session based on the previous 4 spins.. 3312 initial qualification (recorded) 3[1] win, now we have 1231 as our sequence 123[3] win, now we have 1233 [2] win, now we have 2332 [1] win, now we have 3321 [2] win, now we have 3212 [1] win, now we have 2121 [1] win, now we have 1211 [3] win, now we have 2113 2[3] win, now we have 1323 13[1] win, now we have 3131 [1] win, now we have 1311 [2] win, now we have 3112 31[2] win, now we have 2312 [3] win, now we have 3123 3[2] win, now we have 2332 [3] win, now we have 3323 3[2] win, now we have 2332 23[1] win, now we have 2231 2[1] win, now we have 3121 3[3] win, now we have 2133 [1] win and end of data now, We have 21 wins of $5.00 each for a period of 40 spins, so if we don't count the 5 to qualify initially - we have +$105.00 for 35 spins of play, or +$3.00 per spin profit average. ================================== Either way though, mathamatically we are up against the chance that there will be a losing session once per each 80 wins. It is an interesting idea though and I think very playable in a live situation with little risk. Note, in the above example there were no #0 shows. If this happens, it's a loss (or is it ?)...   I'm sure someone will think a little and cover the straight up number 0 with the correct amount of chips in order to make a profit should it show. This will only slightly increase the bankroll needed but will cover the bet Then, our only losing session will be an 8 spin repeat of a single dozen. Be creative - once you have figured the 0 coverage bet, play it with the columns also - try to figure ways to combine both the dozens and columns into the mix at the same time. This will make your profits 2X faster, and it may be possible to only see a loss when we have a 4 spin repeat in the same 4 number group, such as 1/4/7/10 which are all in the same dozen - and also all in the same column. Try your own variations and experiments. This is nothing "new", so please bend it to fit your table limits and remember the risk(s) involved. Cheers Ed

==================== Since there were some questions, I'll add another example from actuals (picked at random) Hamburg 20050716_1 (yesterday table 1) (first we qualify) # - dozen it's in (result) (new sequence) 6 - 1 28 - 3 0 - n/a 9 - 1 36 - 3 10 - 1 21 - 2 (we have 1312 as our sequence) (so we are betting 1st spin on 2nd and 3rd dozen) 26 - 3 (win) (now we have 3123) 10 - 1 (win) (now we have 1231) 1 - 1 (loss - continue) 21 - 2 (loss - continue) 7 - 1 (win) (now we have 1121) 33 - 3 (win) (now we have 1213) 31 - 3 (win) (now we have 2133) 20 - 2 (loss - continue) 14 - 2 (win) (now we have 3322) 5 - 1 (win) (now we have 3221) 28 - 3 (loss - continue) 5 - 1 (win) (now we have 2131) 24 - 2 (loss - continue) 32 - 3 (win) (now we have 3123) 4 - 1 (win) (now we have 1231) 2 - 1 (loss - continue) 20 - 2 (loss - continue) 31 - 3 (loss - continue) 31 - 3 (win) (now we have 1233) 8 - 1 (loss - continue) 7 - 1 (win) (now we have 3311) 11 - 1 (win) (now we have 3111) 10 - 1 (win) (now we have 1111) 0 - n/a (loss - continue) 6 - 1 (loss - continue) 18 - 2 (win) (qualify due to 0) 26 - 3 26 - 3 (now we have 1233) 11 - 1 (loss - continue) 7 - 1 (win) (now we have 3311) 7 - 1 (win) (now we have 3111) 11 - 1 (win) (now we have 1111) 2 - 1 (loss - continue) 17 - 2 (win) (now we have 1112) 2 - 1 (loss - continue) 19 - 2 (win) ..... results +$100.00 using 5.00 table min. chart :

Here's from actuals as I'm doing them off by hand : (note started July 1st 2005 for a reference point) (date / most repeats of a single dozen) (spins) July 1 2005 table 1 - 6 repeats (264 spins) table 2 - 4 repeats (154 spins) table 4 - 7 repeats (261 spins) table 5 - 10 repeats (213 spins) (1 losing session) table 6 - 5 repeats (209 spins) table 7 - 4 repeats (89 spins) table 8 - 4 repeats (92 spins) ===================== July 1 summary : 1,282 spins (512.8 sessions) winnings : +$2,564.00 losings : -$400.00 day's balance +$2,164.00 ===================== July 2 2005 table 1 - 7 repeats (210 spins) table 2 - 5 repeats (121 spins) table 4 - 7 repeats (233 spins) table 5 - 5 repeats (208 spins) table 6 - 5 repeats (176 spins) table 7 - 4 repeats (93 spins) table 8 - 3 repeats (88 spins) ====================== July 2 summary : 1,129 spins (451.6 sessions) winnings : +$2,258.00 losings : -$0.00 day's balance +$2,258.00 2 day balance +$4,422.00 for 2,411 spins ====================== July 3 2005 table 1 - 5 repeats (187 spins) table 4 - 5 repeats (264 spins) table 5 - 5 repeats (236 spins) table 6 - 5 repeats (135 spins) ====================== July 3 summary : 822 spins (328.8 sessions) winnings : +$1,644.00 losings : -$0.00 day's balance +$1,644.00 3 day balance +$6,066.00 for 3,233 spins * 3 days into the test and we are up 6k which is equal to 15 bankrolls !

You will need to win about 90 bankrolls to be on safer ground.

That in real life would be playing 1 Euro as base bet and 10 Euro as base bet.
That is a total of winning 6 bets to use the regresson as main strategy to operating with winning...

Quote from: Ralph on February 10, 2013, 01:09:00 PM
You will need to win about 90 bankrolls to be on safer ground.

How do you mean, i don't understand, can you elaborate a littel more about the subject.

Many Thanks

Quote from: Sputnik on February 10, 2013, 01:13:48 PM
How do you mean, i don't understand, can you elaborate a littel more about the subject.

Many Thanks

You wrote you can lose a bankroll in every 80 sessions. If you reach 90 bankrolls, the probability of losing  is rather small.


A "Winning system"  need a very good start to stay a "winning system". It is possible, a lucky start will do it.


I  have got a long winning streak, the best way to keep it is to play less and lower after. Not shift to higher bets, which wipe it out in the first not avoidable bad sessions.

I not sure if we are on the same level, i only have to be ahead once and its the same with even money bets.
Take a progression like 10 20 30 then i win once and play with 1 Euro = 1 2 3 then i am winning with winnings.

The question is what the frame is for losing intervals?

BRRR
BBRR W
BBBR LW
RBBR W
RRRR W
RRBB LW
RBRB W
RBRB LLL
BRRR
RRBB W
BRBB W
BBBB W
RRRB LW
BRBR W
BRRR LW
BRBR LW
BRBB LLW
BRRB LW
RBRR LW
RBRB LLW

It is enough to be ahead once, if we stay  a head!  The problems with all tests is they can not always be replicated.

-

On a scale from 1 to 10 regression comes as 8 out of 10.
Pretty solid if you ask me.

It seems to me that if you do not hit the first ten units profit the result would be the same as playing starting from 1 unit in the beginning.


Here is random.org from today.EC's.

				WL	Balance
2	1	2	2
2	2	2	2	WWL	10
2	2	2	1	LLW	10
1	1	2	1	LWL	11
1	1	1	2	LWL	12
1	1	2	1	LWL	13
2	1	2	2	WLW	14
1	1	2	2	WLL	15
2	1	1	1	WWL	16
1	1	1	1	WLL	17
2	2	1	2	LWW	18
2	2	2	1	LWL	19
2	1	2	2	WWW	20
2	2	2	2	WWL	21
1	1	2	2	LWL	22
1	1	2	2	LLL	16
2	2	2	2	LWL	17
1	2	1	1	WWL	18
1	1	2	1	WLW	19
1	1	2	2	LLW	19
2	2	1	2	LLW	19
2	2	2	1	LWL	20
1	1	1	1	LLW	20
2	2	2	1	LLW	20
2	1	2	1	WWL	21
2	2	2	2	WWW	22
2	2	1	1	LWL	23
1	1	1	1	LWL	24
2	2	2	2	LLL	18
1	1	1	2	LLW	18
1	1	2	1	LWL	19
1	1	1	1	LWW	20
1	1	1	2	LLW	20
1	1	1	1	LLW	20
2	2	2	1	LLW	20
2	1	1	2	WLL	21
2	1	2	2	LWW	22
1	1	1	1	WWL	23
1	1	2	2	LWL	24
2	1	1	1	WWL	25
1	2	2	1	LLW	25
2	1	1	1	LLW	25
2	1	2	2	LWL	26
2	2	1	1	WLL	27
2	2	1	2	LLW	27
1	2	2	2	WWW	28
2	1	1	2	LLW	28
1	2	2	1	LLL	22
1	2	2	1	LLL	16
1	1	2	2	WWW	17
1	2	1	2	WLW	18
2	2	2	2	WWW	19
2	1	1	1	WLL	20
1	2	2	1	LLW	20
1	1	1	2	WLL	21
1	2	2	2	WLW	22
1	2	2	2	LLL	16
1	2	1	2	LWW	17
2	2	2	2	WWW	18
2	1	1	2	WLW	19
2	1	2	2	LWW	20
2	2	1	2	WLW	21
2	2	1	1	LLW	21
2	2	2	1	LWW	22
1	1	1	2	LLL	16
1	1	1	2	LLL	10
1	2	1	1	WWW	11
2	2	1	2	WLW	12
2	1	1	2	WWL	13
1	2	2	1	LLL	7
2	2	2	1	WLL	8
1	2	1	1	WWW	9
1	2	1	2	LLW	9
2	1	1	1	LWW	10
2	2	1	2	WWW	11

And here starting with one unit:

				WL	Balance
2	1	2	2		0
2	2	2	2	WWL	1
2	2	2	1	LLW	1
1	1	2	1	LWL	2
1	1	1	2	LWL	3
1	1	2	1	LWL	4
2	1	2	2	WLW	5
1	1	2	2	WLL	6
2	1	1	1	WWL	7
1	1	1	1	WLL	8
2	2	1	2	LWW	9
2	2	2	1	LWL	10
2	1	2	2	WWW	11
2	2	2	2	WWL	12
1	1	2	2	LWL	13
1	1	2	2	LLL	7
2	2	2	2	LWL	8
1	2	1	1	WWL	9
1	1	2	1	WLW	10
1	1	2	2	LLW	10
2	2	1	2	LLW	10
2	2	2	1	LWL	11
1	1	1	1	LLW	11
2	2	2	1	LLW	11
2	1	2	1	WWL	12
2	2	2	2	WWW	13
2	2	1	1	LWL	14
1	1	1	1	LWL	15
2	2	2	2	LLL	9
1	1	1	2	LLW	9
1	1	2	1	LWL	10
1	1	1	1	LWW	11
1	1	1	2	LLW	11
1	1	1	1	LLW	11
2	2	2	1	LLW	11
2	1	1	2	WLL	12
2	1	2	2	LWW	13
1	1	1	1	WWL	14
1	1	2	2	LWL	15
2	1	1	1	WWL	16
1	2	2	1	LLW	16
2	1	1	1	LLW	16
2	1	2	2	LWL	17
2	2	1	1	WLL	18
2	2	1	2	LLW	18
1	2	2	2	WWW	19
2	1	1	2	LLW	19
1	2	2	1	LLL	13
1	2	2	1	LLL	7
1	1	2	2	WWW	8
1	2	1	2	WLW	9
2	2	2	2	WWW	10
2	1	1	1	WLL	11
1	2	2	1	LLW	11
1	1	1	2	WLL	12
1	2	2	2	WLW	13
1	2	2	2	LLL	7
1	2	1	2	LWW	8
2	2	2	2	WWW	9
2	1	1	2	WLW	10
2	1	2	2	LWW	11
2	2	1	2	WLW	12
2	2	1	1	LLW	12
2	2	2	1	LWW	13
1	1	1	2	LLL	7
1	1	1	2	LLL	1
1	2	1	1	WWW	2
2	2	1	2	WLW	3
2	1	1	2	WWL	4
1	2	2	1	LLL	-2
2	2	2	1	WLL	-1
1	2	1	1	WWW	0
1	2	1	2	LLW	0
2	1	1	1	LWW	1
2	2	1	2	WWW	2

It does not change fluctuation. Unless we can find a "better" entry point.
Cheers

2	1	2	2
2	2	2	2	W	10
2	2	2	1	LLW	10
1	1	2	1	LW	11
1	1	1	2	LW	12
1	1	2	1	LW	13
2	1	2	2	W	14
1	1	2	2	W	15
2	1	1	1	W	16
1	1	1	1	W	17
2	2	1	2	LW	18
2	2	2	1	LW	19
2	1	2	2	W	20
2	2	2	2	W	21
1	1	2	2	LW	22
1	1	2	2	LLL	16
2	2	2	2
1	2	1	1	W	26
1	1	2	1	W	27
1	1	2	2	LLW	27
2	2	1	2	LLW	27
2	2	2	1	LW	28
1	1	1	1	LLW	28
2	2	2	1	LLW	28
2	1	2	1	W	29
2	2	2	2	W	30
2	2	1	1	LW	31
1	1	1	1	LW	32
2	2	2	2	LLL	26
1	1	1	2
1	1	2	1	LW	37
1	1	1	1	LW	38
1	1	1	2	LLW	38
1	1	1	1	LLW	38
2	2	2	1	LLW	38
2	1	1	2	W	39
2	1	2	2	LW	40
1	1	1	1	W	41
1	1	2	2	LW	42
2	1	1	1	W	43
1	2	2	1	W	44
2	1	1	1	W	45
2	1	2	2	LW	46
2	2	1	1	W	47
2	2	1	2	LLW	47
1	2	2	2	W	48
2	1	1	2	LLW	48
1	2	2	1	LLL	42
1	2	2	1
1	1	2	2
1	2	1	2	W	52
2	2	2	2	W	53
2	1	1	1	W	54
1	2	2	1	LLW	54
1	1	1	2	W	56
1	2	2	2	W	57
1	2	2	2	LLL	51
1	2	1	2
2	2	2	2	W	61
2	1	1	2	W	62
2	1	2	2	LW	63
2	2	1	2	W	64
2	2	1	1	LLW	64
2	2	2	1	LW	65
1	1	1	2	LLL	59
1	1	1	2
1	2	1	1
2	2	1	2	W	69
2	1	1	2	W	70
1	2	2	1	LLL	64
2	2	2	1
1	2	1	1	W	74
1	2	1	2	LLW	74
2	1	1	1	LW	75
2	2	1	2	W	76

 
-
Same numbers with different style of playing using regression with different results.
Bank 1 is 50 Euro.
Bank 2 is 5 Euro.

i see and i get it. So You end a session when you hit LLL. Cool.