I am developing a even money bet where you break even or win 10% ...
I have not yet decide loss limit.

I could never forget this picture that describe the hit ratio you should expect when you aim for a small win goal or break even.
All this is flat betting.



+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+1
-0.5
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+0
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0

Here above can you see -0.5 that means we break even but during the game we hit zero with La Partage Rule.
A direct win is +1.

The methodology is using red and black as they come, but with 1 in 3 probability.
If you win +1 you end the game.
If you end up +0 you end the game.
If you end up -1 you continue to play until you break even (here we should find a loss limit value)

Largest draw-down during this test was -4 units.
The main idea is following two dozen out of three for domination.
Will continue this later.

Yes that does look very interesting


please continue...

I will try to explain it .
The probability is 1 in 3.
Singles and series is events.

Example.

R

I see red and can not bet as i have no clue what kind of event i have.
Is it going to be a single or a series.

R
R

It become a series with two in a row.
Now i wait until the series stop growing.
After that i will bet that one more series will show, i bet for a repeat of the last present event.

R
R
R
B
B W

I won i hit two series in a row.
Now lets say i did not get a repeat, one series.

  R
R
R
B
R L

Then i lose my bet as the last present event did not repeat, become a series.
I got a singles event.

So now i have one series and one singles event.
That is two events.

The last present event is one singles and i will bet that it will come one more singles, one repeat.

R
R
R
B
R L
B W

I won as the singles event repeat.
Now i have show you how it looks to get +1 and break even +0 following the last two hitting events.

Now assume we lose this bet.
Then it looks like this.

R
R
R
B
R L
R L

Now you can see we have one more bet to do to prevent 3 different events to show or 1 in 3 probability.
This means that we will play that the last series will be at least three in a row.

This is because our second last present event is a series of three and we will bet for a repeat.

R
R
R
B
R L
R L
R L

Now  we lose and get three different events in a row with no repeat of the last two present events.

From this moment you just play and follow the last two hitting events for domination.
Lets look one other example.

R
B

The first event is a singles event so we play for one repeat.

R
B
B L

We lose and now we wait to the series to end so we know how our two present events look like.

R
B
B L
B
B
R

Now we would bet for a singles event to repeat.

R
B
B L
B
B
R
R L

Now we bet that the last event of the series will be longer then three, so it will become a repeat of previous event, series.

R
B
B L
B
B
R
R L
B L

So you always play for a repeat of the last hitting events.
It take some time to get it, even if i know the principal i had some hard time separating the events,
It needs some practice.

With dozen play it looks like this.
You see first dozen to appear.

2

Then you play it will repeat.

2
1

It did not so now you play dozen 1 and 2.

2
1
3

No repeat and you lose three times in a row.
Now you would follow 1 and 3 being the last present events.
Same with the even money bets.


Note.
You can also after each winning strike start over counting what is the becoming last two present events.

You will get sup-riced how often you win +1 or break even +0.
At rare moments you get -1 and have to continue to break even within negative territory.

I will get back into loss limit after more testing.

 
It fail.
100 sessions and you end up even.
+44 units
-43.5 units

[reveal=Results]
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+1
-0.5
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+0
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-10
+1
+0.5
+0
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
+1
-10
+1
-0.5
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
-10
+1
+0
+0
+0
-10
+0
+1
+0
+0
-10
+1
-0.5
+0
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
-0.5
+1
+0
[/reveal]

 
This is why i like hand testing.
Here we can clearly see how positive fluctuation and negative fluctuation comes in waves.

Just remember guys....'breaking even' is not actually a bad thing!

You could argue that you actually won a session if you break even because you did not succumb to the House Edge!

As skakus said...  its easier to start tweeking a level idea.
Perhaps a new idea shoul aim for parity for a few thousand spins as a starting point

@skakus
Brain disorder...total lack of spelling skills mixed with tiny android keypad and sausage fingers
Nothings ever got an apostrophe because its on the next keyboard and i can't be arsed