An interesting perspective on so-called grails.

What a self-glorifying article, in all its brevity.

So in the first instance Grails don't exist, but then within a few short lines they miraculously do exist, but only internally!

I'm confused by this article, is she saying they exist or not? [smiley]aes/dont_know.png[/smiley] 

I read it through again and I think she's saying it's possible for Grails to exist but they defy description.

I can live with that.

One thing i don't understand is when you can win ... then why do you win to much and get a ban.
If the holy grail is the gambler with the x-factor ... then he or she should lose some money back to the casino looking like a loser ... if he or she know how to win on regular basis.
What good does it do if you get a ban ... then your working place is closed or same as getting fired from work.

This also apply to AP players.
Laurance Scott wrote in one of his book about different casinos in Las Vegas.
Down Town you have less luxury and more poor casinos, they are grind joints, this means you can not win more then a certain amount of money, if you don't want to get heat and attention.
Then you have regular casinos, where you can have a higher limit.
You get my point.

Take a regular gambler.
Friday, Saturday you should aim to win more as tables are crowded and there is full action every where, set a good limit that don't give you heat or attention.
Monday and Thursday you should aim to grind with lower limit.

Any opinions about that?

I think she's trying to say that the Grail is the player. i.e., it's the personal attributes of the individual which bring success, not any system which they use. Only partly true, in my opinion.

Inclined to agree with her on this, all to do with the players head attituded towards the game.

Look at all the people who play sport such as Cricket or Football, how many represent their Country or go on to make real money.  Was it luck or do they have a different attitude and therefore this makes them more successful?  Same thing goes for gambling I think.  If your head is not in it you will lose.

Quote from: Sputnik on September 03, 2014, 08:52:41 AM
Take a regular gambler.
Friday, Saturday you should aim to win more as tables are crowded and there is full action every where, set a good limit that don't give you heat or attention.
Monday and Thursday you should aim to grind with lower limit.

Any opinions about that?

This implies you are playing with a guaranteed positive edge. Without that guarantee you have limited control over when is a good time to bet big or bet small, because you don't really know when the wheel will co-operate or not.

So you can't really decide to go for the big bucks while the casino is busy because the wheel might deny you, and bring about your undoing. Then when you go back on a quite night to grind it out with small chips the wheel might submit to your efforts and offer up a pittance in comparison.

Quote from: Slacker on September 03, 2014, 09:03:29 AM
I think she's trying to say that the Grail is the player.

Yes, that's the self glorifying bit.

With Regression Up & Pull you can control everything.
And winning two out of three sessions on regular basis.

We all know the game has negative expectation and that you can not have a edge playing roulette ... if you don't use physics.

Is there a link to the full article?

Quote from: Sputnik on September 03, 2014, 10:26:10 AM
With Regression Up & Pull you can control everything.
And winning two out of three sessions on regular basis.

We all know the game has negative expectation and that you can not have a edge playing roulette ... if you don't use physics.

I am ignoring  the contents of that last sentence   since I   am  only thinking in a positive way.

But the UP and PULL  combined   with  winning 2 out 3  sessions brings you  into the winners  circle.

Quote from: Slacker on September 03, 2014, 09:03:29 AM
I think she's trying to say that the Grail is the player. i.e., it's the personal attributes of the individual which bring success, not any system which they use.

That is exactly her point.

I've been espousing the very same thing in these forums for years.

The so-called "grail" can come to you only from within.

Those that are waiting for someone to post a complete step-by-step bet selection method that'll beat Baccarat are in for, well, a rather frustrating wait, for it will never happen; mainly because, my friends, IT DOES NOT EXIST.

No static bet selection method will ever beat this game.  And, even if there were one, this game would not, could not, exist.

No, fellas, I'm afraid it takes so much more than just a static bet selection method and/or a static MM plan.  Neither one will provide the long term success that we all seek.

Rather, one needs to adopt a certain approach to game, a mentality; that sees them utilizing their God-given BRAIN at the tables at all times, where they're able to adjust their bet selections and their bet sizes based upon certain CURRENT CRITERIA.  Criteria that THIS SHOE, or PORTION THEREOF, is lending itself to.

Knowing when to back off (read: "no-bet") and knowing when to press forward; knowing when to exit a shoe and/or session; knowing how to accept a win (any win) or even pare a loss....these are things that only the correct mind-set, the correct mentality, the correct approach, combined with all of the very necessary patience and discipline....therein, my friends, deep within ourselves....lies your very own "grail".

As always, I wish it for all of you.

Hi gr8player,

Actually, the more I think about this, the less I believe that "the grail is the player".

QuoteKnowing when to back off (read: "no-bet") and knowing when to press forward; knowing when to exit a shoe and/or session; knowing how to accept a win (any win) or even pare a loss....these are things that only the correct mind-set, the correct mentality, the correct approach, combined with all of the very necessary patience and discipline....therein, my friends, deep within ourselves....lies your very own "grail".

But knowing when to back off etc, is surely to follow a system, is it not? Discipline, in this context, is just the capacity to follow the rules, which implies that there are some rules which result in a positive expectation in the first place. Algorithmic trading doesn't require any human input; the trades are  executed entirely by computer, using strategies such as trend-following and mean reversion.

Take what you consider to be a "bad" system; the very recognition that there are good and bad systems suggests that the system itself must play some part in success or otherwise, at least. Would you be able to play a "bad" system in such a way that it nevertheless returned a profit? If the answer is yes, then the reason must be because you've changed the system: you're no longer playing the system as it was meant to be played. Just following the system mechanically and perfectly - as a computer would do - does not require any personal attributes that a computer doesn't have. In fact, a computer is far better at this kind of "mindless" execution. It doesn't get mad or go "on tilt", or get tired and make mistakes. It just does exactly what it's programmed to do, nothing more and nothing less.

If you don't know what decision to make in any given circumstance, then the computer won't either.

The opposite of a static system - adjusting bet selections and stake depending on current criteria - is not incompatible with a mechanical approach. Indeed, a computer is capable of far more complex processing of information than any person.

Historically, there is a tremendous amount of emphasis put on the exercise of discipline and other human characteristics for attaining success in any speculative endeavor, but it seems to me that these qualities are becoming increasingly irrelevant in the modern world, and in any case, there never was much logical force behind it.

Why can't a particular method be called..... "a better way to bet"? Why does the TERM grail, have to be attached to it, says who?

Ken

Temporary edit: some posts split to:
http://betselection.cc/off-topic/re-interesting-article-on-grails/

* The profitable gambler knows when to stop.

* The problem gambler never knows when to stop.

The difference between them is that one has the X-factor; the other doesn't.

And it's more than just self-discipline and/or money management, although they are parts of the X-factor.

There are other parts to the X-factor as well, if you think about it.

But the X-factor is more than the sum of its parts.

And Ms Manton is right - it defies definition. Hence the 'x' bit.

Trying to define it is a bit like trying to pick up mercury with your fingers. You can see it.  You just can't get hold of it.

But you know it's there.

A grail comes from the deep study of the game and by knowing all the statistical and probability related issues that are connected with this game. There are certain problems that do not let you win, in a session or as a whole, in long run:

1. Ignorance of what can happen with you. Like many players are just not aware that a bet may go so bad, any moment that it can eat even a million chips without giving you back even one unit profit. You may not see such things for years but it can happen any moment.

2. Poor Money management/progression: If someone get hypnotized by the use of martingale or labouchere or fibonacci and consider them as panacea, they are sure to get bust before they play their 100th session. Someone surviving with them for longer, is surely luckiest person on earth.

3. Planning to win in short time: law of small numbers is a must read theory for all who desires to win in all sessions by any betselection or MM

4.Negative Variance: If every bet runs smoothly around mathematically expected hit rate, every Tom, Dick and Harry will beat the game. A session may be very good for your bet, it can be average, poor or horrible. Randomness brings positive and negative variance to different bets. You can't guess which bet will get what kind of variance,in the next session.

5.House Edge: I feel it is a factor but a comparatively weaker factor for losses, in short session. Although, in long run, it is the main defense of casinos against you. With the help of this, casino sucks punters money, in almost invisible way.

                      If you have a strategy that keeps all these factors, in the mind and you have the ability to simulate that in at least 100k placed bets(not spins count but 1 placed bet means u bet in that spin, ignoring empty spins) and if it gets better than break even, you are most likely, having a grail. It is pertinent to mention here that any co-incidence or temporary positive variance won't let you win till 100k placed bets unless you reverse engineer the data to create an approach that can beat exactly that data.