I do not understand instructions like these:

QuoteWin-Target/Stop-Loss: +15%/-40% of original bankroll amount.

Is it not the same to say:

Bankroll: 40 units

Target Gain: +15 units

Thanks for the clarification.

QuoteBankroll suggestion: 200 units

Please check my math.

40% - 80 units

15% - 30 units.

Is it not the same as:

Bankroll suggestion total: 80 units

Win goal for the session: +30 units.

or I mistook it already?

wannawin

With a bankroll of 40 units...

+15% = 6 units

-40% = 16 units

80 unit bankroll...

+15 = 12 units

-40% = 32 units

200 unit bankroll...

+15% = 30 units

-40% = 80 units

My advice would be ''don't try this at home''   

Ideas like this win 15% / lose 40% of bankroll never made any sense to me.

Let's say you have a 200 unit bankroll...

You lose 40% in session 1 = 80 unit loss. You have 120 units left.

You lose 40% in session 2 = 48 unit loss. You have 72 units left.

You win 15% in session 3 = 10 units win. Happy days. Back to 82 units.

It's not my idea of a winning strategy at all. In fact, it's a very negative approach.

You are not giving any positive variance a chance to rapidly increase the bankroll.

Roulette is not always a grind and you have to take advantage when the opportunity presents itself. Don't limit the wins. Limit the losses.

cheers

My goal is generally to break even or make small wins while playing "opportunities that maybe weren't what I thought they would be". 




But along the way some opportunities are exactly what I thought they would become...and those are the instances where roulette really pays.  I don't know that you can put percentages on it in most cases.  It is what it will become.  If I get a few good strikes I try to only give back 15%-20% of what hopefully is a pretty nice gain chasing the continuation of the run.  At some point the run has to end...don't chase too long...then come back later to attack once again.




No matter how good you are there are inevitable losses...play in a manner to limit the downside without tempering the upside...in the end if your style of play in solid...you will come out ahead.  Discipline and patience.

There is always a limit amount of money we want to risk, so what's really we mean with bankroll, all the money we possible can lose, or the amount we have set for the current play.  We can of course stop if we feel it is not going our way, but otherwise a stoploss is the same as reduce the bet, change strategy or take a break. The fact we stop after using for example 80% of that we call bankroll, means we have to start on a lower level next time.  If it is next session, current session and if is days between do not change the fact we have lost the session.  There is rational reasons for waiting and play later, we may be mentally not on track, we feel for any reason it is not my day.


The win target  as the stoploss (the money we decide before starting we can risk) must be a realistic amount for the method.


The win target can be different, some methods ends with more or less plus, and we may have no time to reach any predefined. It is not as the risking amount something which is possible to decide before. Is there reason to stop if all what we count as good conditions still are there. There is also a limit we can push a session before reset it, depends on method.
If we believe in HAR things are different.   There are many aspects of the play there illusions are common. Stop while a head is one of those illusions, we feel good on the way home until next time we play. We can of course not lose if we not play, that risk comes next time. If we during the play find other use for the winning money including that we were risking, it is rational to stop, in that case the win target is you suddeny can effort some you could not before, that is a win target.  Some times on a BM casino I play very short as the stakes here is at least USD 7, and I do not want to risk much. I set a side some money for the dinner, and play some money to let the luck decide the class of it, if I win  I spend it on better restaurant.

Among the very best MM i read about is Brett Morton's ...
I also hear that John Patrick has some good things going ...

Brett Mortons MM let you win with flexibility oppisite to the 20/100 Flaw using MM ...

- - -

Math Professor
Posted 03/20/06 at 05:32 PM
John Patrick's forum board.

- - -

Someone quoted John Patrick as saying I don't win much but I don't lose much either.
Now he was critical of this statement but there is a reason for it.

- - -

We who have lived with gambling all our lives understand the relationship between what we win and what we lose.
The Equation is simple enough .
Magnitude of profit is usually a function of magnitude of wagering.
One of the most common failures in gambling is progressive betting.

- - -

Several small wins are satisfying but  when the next small win does not happen and it turns into a progression which often recovers the day but sometimes results in ruination.
Giving up on a progression is hard because losing can mean the erosion of several days work.
The gambling flaw is inherent in this.
Christopher Pawlicki highlighted this fact.
The equation for winning small returns often calls for a progression .
The progression  ultimately however snatches away the prevous wins.

- - -

For example 20   20  20  20  20 has been achieved with 50   100   80   120   100  The final destructive act is a 100  that does not recover .Even without a progression 100 absorbs the 5  sets of 20   wins.

- - -

I call this the 20/100 flaw.
20 is therefore 20% of 100. A good result by any standards.
In order to control the erosion of previous wins the ratio of win to wager
needs to be as close to parity as possible.

- - -

Say 80   80  80  80   80  with 100   100   100   100   100
If the 100 goes then we still have nearly 4 days work intact.
We can walk away and get them again another day.
Not many gamblers can achieve 80%.
This is the flaw.

- - -

There must be plenty of gamblers here who understand this but any replies should be better than 3 and out .
The math does not work.

- - -

You have to get the Bankroll Management straight.
Lets assume you have 1600 Euro.
Then you divide the bank by 4 and get 400 400 400 400.

When you double one smaller bank to 800 you divide the 400 into the overall bankroll.
Then 1600 is 2000 that you divide by 4.
Now you have 500 500 500 500.

If you have 1600 = 400 400 400 400 and lose, then it looks like this.
1600 - 400 = 1200 = 300 300 300 300

This way you will have iron overview and control over your bank.

Now try to rap you mind around this ...

Personally i have to think in new ways as the money management is cruel with no errors.

Now what amount make me happy - i would say 50 Euro would make me feel great.
So that should be my Happy-Point.

Loss-Limit should not be more then my Happy-Point so now i have the Loss-Limit of 50 Euro.
That was easy to set up does guide lines based upon this money management strategy.

50 Loss-Limit
50 Happy-Point

Now when or if i reach Happy-Point and want to continue to next win target Gold-Top - then i can't lose it all as there is a Bottom Line Target - "safety net" - that stops me from losing it all.
I set the BTL 10 Euro as i want as much money i can get to continue for next win target and in the same time not go home with a empty wallet.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point

Now i don't want to rush things so i aim for 70 as Gold-Top - the second win target.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top

Lets assume i don't stopp at Happy-Point or stopp at Gold-Top and continue for Jackpot.
Then i can only use the money between Happy-Point and Gold-Top to grind out profits.
Then Happy-Point is my secound safety net.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

You can adjust this strategy as you feel like.
Thump of rule is that you should have Loss-Limit around the same amount as Happy-Point.
Bottom-Line-Target you can set to minimum so you have more money to fight whit as you play for next win target - if you do.

This is also a MM based upon the same principals.

100 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
70 Happy-Point
100 Gold-Top
? Jackpot

Conclusion is that you can skip one big or huge bankroll and go all in for a small % as noting is due to happen and you will sooner or later lose your bankroll.

This way you can base the methods or session upon your strike ratio.

Win two sessions out of three sessions
Win three sessions out of four sessions
Win four sessions out five sessions

Also know that this strategy set limits how many units you have to play with - so there is no room for any kind of sloppy or fuzzy games.   
 
Explore and find out your own variance ...

Lets say you cut the targets around 33% you might succeed and from that point as you gain experience tight up your game plan.
So the MM could look like this if you win more sessions then you lose.

MM with units ...

100 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

I will from now on only test all my bet selections based upon this MM with different staking plans.
As i remember ND aim to win two session out of three - i guess he use some kind of MM to succeed with he's hit ratio.     

It all depends upon what is your day bankroll, what is your lifetime bankroll(if you don't want to keep losing and playing too) and your bet selection. If you can play for long stretches, you may keep a wintarget/stoploss at 50% increase/decrease of the bankroll that u carried for that day of gambling. It is not necessary to come back only after being empty handed and never think of bankrupting the casino by keep playing if u get lucky to have early wins. There is always another day and you as well as casino have to live.

Quote from: albalaha on February 26, 2013, 07:30:35 AM
It all depends

It all depends on the mood of the regression toward mean the way you are saying here.  If it is grumpy you have to make its day to get what you want 

Entertainig it in play just with MM-s will work to some point. When it stops being funny, then you have to put a wig on the head and clown nose to make it laugh (may look stupid, but it helps)  -- my experience

Cheers

keep playing even in  your best day and you are bound to come home empty handed.

Thank you for your valuable feedback. I have here a lot to study and learn.
The fact that you took the time to answer is greatly appreciated.

Walter

Quote from: wannawin on February 26, 2013, 02:30:51 PM
Thank you for your valuable feedback. I have here a lot to study and learn.
The fact that you took the time to answer is greatly appreciated.

Walter

Hello, simple rule is to remember the 20/100 Flaw ...
You have to have flexibility ...

Quote from: albalaha on February 26, 2013, 08:33:06 AM
keep playing even in your best day and you are bound to come home empty handed.

Does it matter which day you lose? Or are you believing in HAR?

Quote from: albalaha on February 26, 2013, 08:33:06 AM
keep playing even in your best day and you are bound to come home empty handed.

That would take for ever if you win two out of three or four out of five ...
With some variance of draw downs, but you still stay ahead overall ...