Quote from: spike on August 10, 2013, 07:28:03 AM
With a good edge, variance almost disappears. Meaning luck no longer enters into the equation, luck and variance being the same thing.

i would like to see how how this edge is achieved.

At least he gets the 'point' of it all! 


(re: Spike)

Its all about variance. Small edge = large variance.
Like in BJ card counting. They have such a small
edge they can have losing streaks that last for weeks.
Even the casino has a small edge in its games and
can have losing months because of it. Identifying your
edge, be it negative or positive, is what's important.
That's the starting point, finding out why your edge is
what it is.

Quote from: spike on August 10, 2013, 07:46:15 PM
Its all about variance. Small edge = large variance.

True that, but variance as the norm for your ECs is low.
So, mathematically, a player should not need an edge to be successful with a betting system, even if the EV is negative.
Casinos can still be beaten from time to time by lucky players due to the volatility of the games. The opposite applies too but the casinos have more money and know how much they need to cover their payouts. Ultimately the volatility kills any progression or mechanical flat bet. Logically then an effective bet selection should be based on the player's confidence in the next series of spins. But can you ever be more confident than 50/50? We'll have to wait until Gizmotron releases his memoirs to find out...

Well you don't have to wait. I've always said that you can prove to yourself what
works. Take the swarms of singles or the sleeping dozen in the 2/1 bets. They happen
everyday. If you are an expert at detecting these conditions, and if you know how
to cobble together winning sessions exploiting these conditions then you have all
the proof there is necessary.  Did you know that a parlay progression of just three
steps works great during long streaks of singles or sleepers?  Here it is:
15 = 10/5, 20/10, 40/20 = 120 - 15 = 105 net win

after each large win you move up to the next step. One dozen gets 10, the other dozen
gets the 5. After the large win, the 10, becomes 20, and the 5 becomes 10. When the small
bet wins you stay at the same level. If the trend condition continues you have a fifty/ fifty
chance of moving up the progression. So it's break even or win while it's working.

Quote from: Gizmotron on August 16, 2013, 02:48:18 PM
if you know how to cobble together winning sessions exploiting these conditions then you have all
the proof there is necessary.

That tickled me! We don't need any fancy terms. We just need to engage the old grey matter.

John Patrick is a strong believer    of trends.

Frank Scoblete  calls trend betting hindsight.


Old  blue eyes Frank Sinatra croones " I did it my way .".


Nathan Detroit  does it tjhe Ole Blue Eye way.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>MY WAY

Happy Winnings whichever way. There is NO sure way.

Nathan Detroit

This is really a brilliant thread, I have just glanced over it and will take me a long time to review.


Just a little shout out 2 2Cat : )

From what I understand Prez Obama finds himself in a very difficult situation, and this is an understatement (from my perspective)

All I can say is imagine yourself in his shoes, but at the moment you only have 10% of his knowledge.

What we see on the news is a not a complete picture.

He is truly trying his bets and will ultimately succeed.


The only way positive change will come about is if we remain positive about Prez Obama and the world.

Mr. AMK

I'll leave you to your opinion.

TwoCat

Low information voters love Obama. The media loves and protects Obama. They
never connect his policies to the results we now see. There is a track record for
why the economy is the way it is. Japan has been in a twenty year downslide for
doing exactly what Obama is trying now. Same result too.

People that drink the coolaid are not expected to go beyond the propaganda
they are expected to consume. This is the new normal. Get used to it.

I wish we could all just get along. The world is a happy go lucky place if you
just let the government solve everything. There's nothing more rewarding
than a low information perspective.

Gizmo,


Spoken like a true conservative.

The govenrnment should  fear the people not the people should fear the government.

Nathan Detroit
VRWC


ATLAS  SHRUGGED !!!

[mod] Folks, please try to keep politics OFF the forum. It is potentially so divisive, as is already becoming apparent. Ta. [/mod]

Very happy to see TwoCat and Gizomotron respond : )

It is a honor!

May I ask what your best 3 systems/methods/etc.. are?

I appreciate your time.

Sincerely,

AMK