This is how i see things and getting the edge over negative expectation.

Most experience players would use a  low win target, lets say 20% ...
Lets say the buy in is 200 and loss limit 50% or 100.
Then we get what i call the 20/100 flaw.

You have to win 5 times in a row to reach 100 and then you are just even.
Lets say you get busted after that, then you have to start all over again.
Then comes recovery progression to recoup and assume you get busted again, then you have gamblers ruin.

This means that low win targets and loss limits does not give you an edge, by it self.
But if we aim to win more when we are ahead, try to capitalize when we are in strike mood, then we might get an edge over the game.

Lets say i play one week or 5 days.
+20 +20 +20 +20 +20 up +100 if i lose once i give it all back and might use a recovery progression and maybe end up with gamblers ruin.

But if my winnings look like this.
+40 +30 +50 +20 +30 up +170 if i lose a week playing i am still up +70 overall.

This is why i like Brett Morton's Money Management and John Patrick's Money Management.
They capitalize above fixating win targets with built in accumulations strategy's, pushing for more.
In the end that give you some kind of edge over the 20/100 flaw.

@Sputnik


Excellent MM thanks
R  XXVV

Quote from: RouletteKEY on January 09, 2014, 06:57:12 PM
Subjectively speaking...we choose when to bet or when not to bet...

We choose where to place or bets

We choose how much to bet

The casino takes all bets so long as the wheel is in use...they cannot tell us where to place our bets and they can only limit the minimum or maximum amount bet within posted limits that they set.

To me...it would seem we can certainly derive an "edge" or "advantage" from those parameters even with a 00 wheel.   Bet selection, bankroll, patience and discipline rule the day.  This has been my position for years and from time to time in conversations such as these I have posted it.  I am sticking with my position.

There are limits to everything...whether that be repeats or the infamous "random".  If you choose well, have the bankroll and guts to ride out a bad turn (along with stop-losses to minimize such drawdowns) and have the patience and discipline to not feel compelled to bet every single spin if your method of play doesn't dictate that a bet be placed... you can play this from an advantageous position.  You may lose battles from time to time but you'll win the war (that does not mean owning the casino).

I agree and think this is an excellent summary statement.

The point I am trying to make or discuss is that our 'freedom;  to start, stop , pause, is of immence value while the casino operator has to chug along riding sometimes bad losses.

In practice this is more than compensated by the folly of the player over-reacting often to loss, or a run of losses, losing the plot and offering the casino a 20% edge, sometimes 70% edge chasing the losses by spreading more and more  over the table.

I watch with interest the from mezzanines often ( XXVV sunglasses brand) and observe so many males especially standing around a table suggesting a short duration stay, and expecting a loss. females usually sit, and in my observations usually play a much smarter game .

Thanks XXVV

Quote from: Sputnik on January 10, 2014, 11:40:09 AM
This is how i see things and getting the edge over negative expectation.

Most experience players would use a  low win target, lets say 20% ...
Lets say the buy in is 200 and loss limit 50% or 100.
Then we get what i call the 20/100 flaw.

You have to win 5 times in a row to reach 100 and then you are just even.
Lets say you get busted after that, then you have to start all over again.
Then comes recovery progression to recoup and assume you get busted again, then you have gamblers ruin.

This means that low win targets and loss limits does not give you an edge, by it self.
But if we aim to win more when we are ahead, try to capitalize when we are in strike mood, then we might get an edge over the game.

Lets say i play one week or 5 days.
+20 +20 +20 +20 +20 up +100 if i lose once i give it all back and might use a recovery progression and maybe end up with gamblers ruin.

But if my winnings look like this.
+40 +30 +50 +20 +30 up +170 if i lose a week playing i am still up +70 overall.

This is why i like Brett Morton's Money Management and John Patrick's Money Management.
They capitalize above fixating win targets with built in accumulations strategy's, pushing for more.
In the end that give you some kind of edge over the 20/100 flaw.

This is very important and why the professional must always incorporate up and pull; enhance the winnings, mitigate the losses; try to eliminate loss where possible ( fix the leaks).


Remember the quote from the Macao classic -' the winners play like cowards and the losers like dragons' - this has to be reversed where possible.

Sometimes I have sessions where I play a complex game and it is tiring after an hour or more of battling and encountering the need for several drawdowns, and you fight to dog out of hole. By the time you are in profit exhaustion can set in and a scuttle to the cashier to take a small profit is a triumph. However of course it may be that the wheel has literally turned and opportunities would have clustered.


I guess in that situation you have to pace yourself as a distance athlete.

Sometimes though you are handed a quick profit. So soon you want to play on but there can be cruel swings and evaporation sets in. That can be an awful experience. I endeavour to adopt the mantra there to take quick profit, and then perhaps pause for a short break over coffee say and consider a return unless your daily goal is already achieved,

Then there are perfect sessions where the balance is better and bets can be pressed.

Thanks for your great comments on MM.
Best
XXVV