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Pretty solid methodology PART 1

Started by Sputnik, March 28, 2013, 04:17:15 PM

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Sputnik


I been testing an idea and getting pretty good results and will apply it to real play.
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What is your opinion about it.
I think it is a pretty solid methodology.
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Lets say i play the even money bets, trending for domination.
Then i would like to hit a small win target and keep loses short.
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Now i don't want to hit loss limit i want to break even if i find my self in the big hole ...
(negative expectation).
I want to have a way to identify when i am entering a negative tram, things is not going my way today.
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My idea is ...
If i aim to win +3 units using regression plan, then i have my win goal.
Now lets say i am down -3 units and did not reach my +3 units win goal.
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Then i can say to my self, this session tend to go against me, this is not my lucky day.
So if i aim to win i would have to reach +6 units as i am down -3 to win +3 and that is not realistic.
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But if i in this situation aim to break even, then i face the same situation as in the beginning.
0 toward +3 is the same as -3 toward +0.
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Is like having a second win goal in the reverse way or a second chance not to lose or hit loss limit.
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This i think is pretty solid psychological factor when things not going our way to solve our situation at the table ...
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Cheers

Gizmotron

You have identified the process that keeps you from losing ground. You are describing all bad sessions as negative, and all good sessions as positive. If you can get as many positive as negative sessions then you break even. All negative sessions end as the -3 stop loss. You need to look at looking past the notion of a stop win.

If a session can be difficult to impossible then a session can also be easy to fantastic. You need to consider ways to take more advantage of the different qualities found in the positive sessions. You can see the different qualities and effectiveness of certain trends, as they occur. You should capitalize on these differences.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

Sputnik

QuoteYou should capitalize on these differences.

Very good point.
I understand that a win goal at +3 sometimes can go beyond that when you are on hot strikes, strong trending that comes your way.
Then you can doubled, trippel you initial win goal.