You will NEVER beat roulette. The wheel has been designed that way but you can win when knowing to leave the table.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
The above statement assumes that you will be ahead more times than you are behind.
That is to say:
"I am going to quit when I am up $10". OK, how do you get up $10.00? How do you keep from going straight down?
There is an old saying, something like this: At some point in his game, every player is ahead.
Is that true? Do we believe that?
This is a great topic for discussion. Thanks, ww.
Sam
I had a conversation with a friend on this subject the other night.
What does 'you will never beat roulette' actually mean?
Here are my thoughts....
Yes...the E/C's and all the other betting locations will always confirm to probability.
It is impossible to know what is coming out next. You can only make an educated guess.
...and there lies the answer IMO.
All you have to learn to do is correctly guess more decisions right than you guess wrong and you can win.
So using a simple example....
RRRRRBBBBB
5 reds and 5 blacks as probability dictates.
Now what's to stop someone guessing 3/5 of those reds and 3/5 of those blacks consistently.
It can be done! In fact...it is been done!
That's it....no magic...no smoke and mirrors. Just good old fashioned guessing.
Sounds simple eh? Well it's not and you might never achieve it. BUT.....that doesn't mean others can't do it.I can't run 100 metres in 10 seconds (especially after the lovely Chinese takeaway I just ate) But I know someone who can.
There are a lot of people who spend all their time testing and have no real life casino experience to talk about.
There are a lot of people who believe everything they read and never question anything for themselves.
If you want to teach yourself to win, you have to get your hands dirty and put in the hard work.
cheers
In a way, you can win if you lose. If you have set a stop loss that if very comfortable to you personally, and you hit that stop loss and walk away, to fight another day, you have won.
Distribution conforms to probability in the long run; how you define that is up to you. People always complain that they don't' know what it means. In my opinion, the long run isn't any set amout of bets or spins, the long run is simply when any edge (positive or negative) is stabilised. Allowing for slight fluctuation, up and down, once the edge is in play it doesn't really change much from that point on. The longer you play the more minute the changes become, but any downturn can be felt pretty hard.
The simple truth is, without an understanding of maths, there really is little chance. Or at least, you cannot become a more accomplished player without understanding what underpins the game's concept. There's no way of knowing what has merit, what has been deemed a failure and why, and when you're on to a good thing. In the end people get stuck on pointless tracking and nonsense triggers.
That being said, probability in shorter term games does not conform to expectation, hardly ever. In certain areas of the game perhaps it's possible to make your own rules which allow for more accurate guessing.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on December 08, 2013, 06:49:42 PM
"I am going to quit when I am up $10". OK, how do you get up $10.00? How do you keep from going straight down?
There is an old saying, something like this: At some point in his game, every player is ahead.
Is that true? Do we believe that?
I sit on the fence. It seems to me good methods can have a few numbers with a high gain to give a good blow and go. I also think methods that earn little and constantly to get away with enough in many winning sessions are good.I think there are people who could operate either. Those who give a good blow a few times can give such a broad stroke that the number of chips lost in the missed sessions is less than what is earned. People who earn a little constantly can employ reinvesting methods used to grow the bank so that the loss does not delete everything earned.
I do not see it as a situation where one side has an absolute right over the other.I would like someone who had his way figured to present his method for public consideration.
Quote from: Bally6354 on December 08, 2013, 07:06:35 PM
If you want to teach yourself to win, you have to get your hands dirty and put in the hard work.
cheers
The trouble is that learning through play for real money costs.I think it is better to try for fun. Until recently I was using a bet for splits that gave me good results but now I put it aside after a slump of losses.I know it could be reversed but I do not want to lose the gains I obtained after many hours so I changed system.
After many failures in the past I got the winner fears this time. haha
Quote from: wannawin on December 08, 2013, 10:15:20 PM
The trouble is that learning through play for real money costs
That's true Walter, however,I find that's also when you get a lesson in reality regarding your style of play.
I have been messing about with RX the last few days just to see if anything jumps off the page rather than specifically looking for something.
So I put in 7 numbers and just watched the swings in balance as they went up and down.
The balance can be +6,000 one minute and then -5,000 a hundred or so spins later. You can start to get a feel for when it's going to plummet and when it is just holding it's own or on the rise.
We are only limited by our own imagination in this game and there are many ways that you can group numbers together and come up with all kinds of different framework to use for analysis. But I do believe you will see the same swings and roundabouts as I mentioned above. The trick then is just to wait and watch. Dip your toe in the water when you see an event happening with a greater degree of frequency.
Money management also plays an important part. Once again, you can use your imagination. Positive, negative, parlays, regression. Is there an optimal way to bet for the situation you find yourself in.
I think one of the biggest mistakes we make is to think in terms of just a one dimensional approach regarding bet selection and money management. Where a more fluid and dynamic approach goes hand in hand with the nature of the game we are trying to conquer.
cheers
I think the En prison Roulette could be beaten.
On the standard Euro/American wheel the minimum and the
maximum table bets affect the bettor's play. (and casinos know this)
Personally many, many small wins over long hours is the way to go imo.
proof....and ....as Brett Morton said, set many goals withing goals. Each time you pass a point, your stop loss comes up so you come away with something.
15u....30u...45u.....60u
If you pass 15, you play to secure 15. if that play passes 30, you play to stop at 30, if you got to 46, you would play as if you had 1u.....quite happily stopping at 33u
I always play this way
So,I would always be aiming at 10, 11, 12u as a worse case for that session.
We do not need to beat the game. We need to extract profit from it as we churn milk to extract cream without destroying the milk.I believe it is easily doable. At least,I can do that.
The game itself is not beatable,in all probabilities but it is winnable.
This will sound goofy but I'll give it a shot.......Leaving at the CORRECT TIME is the key to "winning", not roulette itself. The "winning", actually has little to do with roulette.
Ken
Whenever someone speaks that the game is not beatable I feel like crying, "then why the hell are you over here"?
If you believe in this theory then quit gambling forever and don't lurk around places to get a ready to use HG to become a millionaire.
Only statement that is true about roulette or any game of chance is, "you can not win in all probabilities that can appear in gambling due to randomness and unpredictability caused thereby".
Whatever you concept is, if you bet and keeps on getting losses, even the wisest approach will look foolish there. LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
That's a great learning Me.j and Albalaha. It is clear that roulette is not beatable as math suggests but winnable. Now a very important question that I have. Directly or indirectly both are suggesting understanding of when the spins are working in your favour and when they are not. Is there a scientific approach to it or is it boiling down to intuition?
My vote goes for intuition. Still have not heard about the robot that wins at roulette. Just people claiming they do that.
Sam did show this in a video how he has achieved 10 days of all winning sessions (well nearly all sessions) using excel bots.
QuoteFollow him, then
If you do, also read the posts where it all fails eventually, Sam has posted it a few times after good long runs. I agree the comment (Follow him, then) is unjustified.
Quotescientific or intuition that helps in identifying those downturns
There is no responsible answer to that question, we only recognize a downturn once it's happening, the only way I know of is you have your personal bet selection, playing it results in your own personal LW registery, over time YOU know how bad or good a session can get, YOU feel after a certain length of good or bad run, YOU feel comfortable at that point to either hold bet size if ahead OR very near to the plus, if you are down a fair bit YOU should be able to understand from your previous games, when it MAY be safe to try and recoup a little or a lot of it, there is no mechanical way of playing so in reality, ANY bet selection is as good as the next, the long wait methods just prolong the bad bits.
I only play EC red/black FTL so I start after the 1st spin, I will miss a few spins if the flip flop is running strong, I usually dive back in after any colour has hit 3 times in a row, I set a target of 1 euro if using 0.05 chips, 2 euro if using .10 chips and so on, I don't play to make a living, don't want the stress of it, even playing for low value chips is stressful if you are concentrating, I only play RNG at BetVoyager, NZ and European, I have a feel of what's coming soon as I know the way I play returns a certain structure of LW reg. This only comes with time spent at the screen watching marquees for hours and hours, hence Red/Black only, you can visualy see the patterns created, I would guestimate I only win around 40% of the bets I place, it's the concentrated guessing is the part that recovers where you must decide when to increase the chips. It's not easy.
QuoteIf you do, also read the posts where it all fails eventually, Sam has posted it a few times after good long runs.I agree the comment (Follow him, then) is unjustified.
Every method have same fate. What good it made to all that this action is being cited? When a method loses principally, it is useless to make a video of that. Better simulate that in excel and save your time and that of others. Unless a method can better be understood visually,I do not feel it is any good to make video of that.
Quote from: Albalaha on December 09, 2013, 01:10:10 PM
It will take your life to get any closer to me and do not get frustrate by this crude fact.
It would be easy to add some credence to your reputation by undergoing a public test. The test can be set up in such a way to preserve anonymity of any bet selection.
Quote from: Number Six on December 09, 2013, 01:28:20 PM
It would be easy to add some credence to your reputation by undergoing a public test. The test can be set up in such a way to preserve anonymity of any bet selection.
It has been done earlier too in public test. Have a look :
http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/4336241/Entering-hall-of-fame#.UqXGH9IW1A4 (http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/4336241/Entering-hall-of-fame#.UqXGH9IW1A4)Any doubts of fabrications? Go and ask the admin of that site.
Quote from: Superman on December 09, 2013, 01:12:32 PM
It's not easy.
Much appreciate the response Superman. Really helpful and help put things in perspective for people like me. Will keep that in mind. Amazing how simple your approach is. Will need to try this out.
Anything that considers past outcomes could be coded. Where there is logic there can be replication.
As for Albalah's test, it's a large sample but the results are still random, you can see that by looking at the graph. There are some contradictions in his claims, I'm not convinced they are worth understanding, especially if I have to pay 19.99. Besides, I really need to stock up on toilet roll for Christmas. I doubt one PDF will be enough.
Quote from: Pockets on December 09, 2013, 04:39:36 PM
What might matter to you is what I want to show you next. Number Six, you probably will have to take more than 7-8 incarnations before getting light years of distance closer to me.
Sure, it will be my life's work anyway. :thumbsup:
Quote from: Number Six on December 09, 2013, 04:50:31 PM
Sure, it will be my life's work anyway. :thumbsup:
Good on you mate :thumbsup:
I will delete everything that is not constructive to this thread.I opened my thread with a quote from a friend which I found interesting to discuss and I will not not let it degenerate.
Relevant messages to the quote message are welcome.
In all the threads people are subject to the rules of the forum. In the threads made by other members each member sets his rules. My rules are: please keep the discussion on the topic at hand. Not much to ask. Thank you very much.
Thank you for your sober friend Marshall. Your apologies are gratefully accepted and demonstrate a good attitude towards life from you. Maybe there is a way to join this post with the principal topic so that everyone will enjoy productive discussion back to the issue.
[Edit: Done!]
QuoteOr did I only win because I knew when to leave the table?
I think the time of entry and exit in progression game is foremost. In the progression game one missed spin can make the whole difference between a successful get away in the session and the absolute failure. Here is the importance of not making human errors.
That is the great heart of the matter. How to know when it will change the game ? The truth is that we do not know because the game can change abruptly by each set. We can only speculate on the gradual changes. Many say they use intuition for this.I believe that intuition is the perception of the early signals. To be able to change strategy on the spot. While not all cases will be successful to change because there are abrupt cases. Persons using the early signals are right every time changes happen. With a robot that does not change there is no possibility of using this intuition play.
Maybe intuition can be also executed in the form of indicators by the computer. Maybe poor performance early is the indication for the intuition game. Maybe intuition is a good run that is now much larger than normal so that must end soon. It is the trigger for that intuition to change too.
Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on December 10, 2013, 12:13:39 AM
My apologies to Wannawin for adding fuel to the fire.
If I play roulette on a daily basis and always leave the table with some profit, and I do so for 20 years or more, and then I retire to live out my remaining days with an accumulated fortune at my disposal, would you say I have beaten the game of roulette?
Or did I only win because I knew when to leave the table?
MBB
Are you saying: "Hypothetically I did x, y and z.", or are you saying you have actually done this?
I read you saying you have never left the table a loser in 20 years. Are you making that as a factual statement?
Just curious.....
Sam
I will freely admit I have had systems I thought were infallible.I was wrong.I have had systems that worked for so long,I thought they would never fail.I was wrong.
Years ago I studied a system while my wife was undergoing physical therapy. Sitting in the car,I did 5,000 spins, 100 at a time. (OK, some I did at home.) This system never failed to produce a profit.I then went to CasinoWebCam and played the system.I took $300 to over $3,200 before they discovered I was an American and shut me down.I also tried this system at several other casinos and it worked.
I thought this system was the be-all and end-all. It wasn't.
It seems to work best on a John Huxley Starburst wheel. Dublin has one through their associate. When I got an account at Dublin,I tried the system. It failed.
So if you can do 5,000 dummy spins and win and then actually win $2,900 and have something fail, what is there? When you can win money at three casinos with a system and then have it fail, what is there to say? You were on a lucky streak?
All I have learned in the past seven years has not brought me one inch closer to winning long term.
I don't know where that "follow him" statement came from or if it was about me but if it was--take some friendly advice: Don't follow me!
[Moderator's Comment: To stop you thinking you're going nuts (LOLOL) the 'follow him' was part of an abrupt reply from one member to another in one of the posts that has since been deleted. So relax -- no need to change your medication after all! ;) ]
Sam
Winners are the people who when the odds are stacked against them, and those around them have fallen, will have the courage to look within themselves and make the unbelievable believable, and the impossible possible.
— C. Phillips
Every aspect of roulette has to be defined in some way, if only to one's self. It's difficult when you're dealing with random outcomes. The only things that seem real are what you see; mostly the key lies in defining what you can observe, and these things are selective to individual knowledge and brain power. Many "philosophies" are illusions that don't actually exist.
The concept of hit and run is one such idea. Randomness does not allow someone to hit and run repeatedly. The game is random when you play, it carries on being random when you stop, and is random when you play again. Therefore every single spin (or actually, wager) is just part of one long game. Randomness does not care if you take a three day break between games, or play two sessions in different casinos on opposite sides of the world. Hit and run is simply a fallacy for those who have the fear of losing.
Pattern betting is another illusion. Every outcome is random, so nothing can be defined as being anything but random until after the fact, whether it's a single spin or a series of spins. You can't bet on a pattern, because as soon as you place a wager, the pattern you think you see ends.
Tracking and virtual wins and losses is another illusion. It does not alter the state of affairs,I.e. it does not change probability. Probability only applies to spins on which real money is wagered. Where there is no wager, there is zero chance of winning or losing. You can't circumvent the house edge by tricking it and not placing a wager. It stops existing when you stop betting, and exists when you begin again.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on December 10, 2013, 03:46:10 AM
MBB
Are you saying: "Hypothetically I did x, y and z.", or are you saying you have actually done this?
I read you saying you have never left the table a loser in 20 years. Are you making that as a factual statement?
Just curious.....
Sam
Similarly, how does someone know when to leave the table? The session is tough so they stop. But that doesn't mean the next session is not going to begin tough, and how long you sit out is irrelevant. Roulette is a game of life. When you're in it, you're in it for ever, and variance follows you around everywhere; it stops when you stop and starts when you start. It's like having a monkey sitting on your shoulder all the time. Sometimes it will gently massage your head or give you a cuddle. Often it will stuff down your back. Occasionally it may bite you in the neck. For some people it might just rip out their jugular.
6
I cannot disagree with a thing you said. I can only quote Robert Browning: "Ah, but a man's reach must exceed his grasp or what's a heaven for?"
So we plod along......
Sam
This brings up a whole other question " if you found the grail---what would the spouse think? " would it be good or bad :)
Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on December 10, 2013, 08:12:45 PM[...]what makes me know when to leave the game is different every time, usually it’s the wife saying, “come on, you’re not going to play all night are you?”
Well, there's no arguing with that "cut point" methodology. She knows when to go, ladies are the wiser in our relationships :rose: :thumbsup:
In an effort to get us all singing from the same page here are some semantic thoughts regarding the phrases Beating Roulette and Winning At Roulette
Beating Roulette
Play continuously and you can't beat roulette -- roulette will beat you. The edge is set in cement.
Winning At Roulette
Quite a different kettle of fish altogether, otherwise those claiming to be professional roulette players, for example, would not exist, and nobody would ever be in the black.
Three essential ingredients:
1 Clearly defined triggers
2 Clearly defined betting strategy (flat...progressive...stoploss...whatever)
3 Clearly defined exit point (set by the stoploss...or a defined target...or after a certain number of wins/losses...whatever)
So one is doable; the other is not.
I meant by "what would the spouse think", like as in if she should find out lol---fortune shines on me and mine doesn't give me any hard time on gambling.... and I have travelled a lot with it.....
I guess question 2 is if you had the GRAIL! would she mind the second wife?
PS Internationals take notice in the USA we use spouse instead of her because of political correctness....It makes someone feel better--I just don't know who?
"Internationals take notice in the USA we use spouse instead of her because of political correctness" >>> Even that's old school now.......... PARTNER is the correct word. That covers the gays and straights. I hate the term but oh well.
Ken
Down south....or darn sarf ....as they would say...they often refer to the wife as " er indoors"
My favorite is from the North....referring to the wife as " the bitter half"
A reference to them only having a half beer (Bitter) in the pub...not a pint.
@ Superman,
You say,
"I would guestimate I only win around 40% of the bets I place,"
This is odd. Surely just blind guessing should give you better results.
Fair enough if you're talking about one session as some would give a higher than 50% win rate.
I'm sure there is a logical explanation but I can't see it and it's troubling me.
Trebor
LOL Robert, don't be troubled mate
As you said, yes some sessions can be over very quick with 70% hit rate or thereabouts, but as we all know and understand, no 2 sessions are usually the same, by that I mean mentally and what the game does, the hits might have won BUT did I mentally feel it was good to recoup at that point, would I have done it the same last session or last week had the same things happened? probably not, maybe 40% is a little low, let's call it in hovering around the mid 40's
As I said about a year ago, I stopped writing everything down as they never seemed to look very similar to each other, per session, which I put down to MY choices as to when is good to recoup, some days it goes south and I write off the loss and start from 1 unit, again, a mental decision. All the reasons I cannot bot it as the bot would play mechanicaly over and over.
All I know is, the way have played over the last 12 months is all manually and it works for me.
PS: don't forget, although I feel mentally drained/tired after a session using 0.05 chips on no zero IMAGINE doing it for 0.50 or even a euro, I doubt I could do that for long even with someone else's money, so don't offer, glad I don't have to play to earn to eat. Sadly that makes up probably 80%+ of the readers of gambling forums, hoping to make a mint ---- easily.
Wouldn't that be sweet?
Quote from: esoito on December 10, 2013, 10:39:46 PM
In an effort to get us all singing from the same page here are some semantic thoughts regarding the phrases Beating Roulette and Winning At Roulette
Beating Roulette
Play continuously and you can't beat roulette -- roulette will beat you. The edge is set in cement.
Winning At Roulette
Quite a different kettle of fish altogether, otherwise those claiming to be professional roulette players, for example, would not exist, and nobody would ever be in the black.
Three essential ingredients:
1 Clearly defined triggers
2 Clearly defined betting strategy (flat...progressive...stoploss...whatever)
3 Clearly defined exit point (set by the stoploss...or a defined target...or after a certain number of wins/losses...whatever)
So one is doable; the other is not.
I could not agree more, winning is winning.
If my start balance is 100 and I double it using these steps I will be foolish not to take my 1st 100 out. Then continue to play with the 2nd trying to do the same again. This will at least allow me to keep my original investment and attempt to make profit with the casinos money. If this should fail then at least I have my investment to start again.
Quote from: Mick on June 10, 2014, 09:19:04 AM
This will at least allow me to keep my original investment and attempt to make profit with the casinos money.
Wise words Mick :thumbsup:
In gambling, the key is to control your losses and capitalize on winning streaks. In other words, to lose as little as possible and win as much as possible.
Simply stated, keep to a low average bet while you are losing and bet more everytime you win. Most people do just the opposite, doubling up when they are losing in a foolish attempt to get their losses back fast, and restricting themselves by becoming conservative when they begin to win. It's the old story of self-preservation. Casinos are so plush and luxurious because people don't always cut their losses but they cut their winnings.
cheers
Quote from: Bally6354 on June 10, 2014, 09:54:55 AM
Wise words Mick :thumbsup:
In gambling, the key is to control your losses and capitalize on winning streaks. In other words, to lose as little as possible and win as much as possible.
Simply stated, keep to a low average bet while you are losing and bet more everytime you win. Most people do just the opposite, doubling up when they are losing in a foolish attempt to get their losses back fast, and restricting themselves by becoming conservative when they begin to win. It's the old story of self-preservation. Casinos are so plush and luxurious because people don't always cut their losses but they cut their winnings.
cheers
Fantastic and simple reversal advice. To paraphrase the Chinese admonition - Fight like dragons ('lung') while winning, and worms ('chung') while losing - while in reality most reverse this to fail doubly miserably. ( refer P.98 Roulette for the Millions - O'Neil-Dunne 1972).