Smurfs

I am going on an extended vacation of about four weeks.  I will spend a lot of time driving the Cat Mobile.

I am going to spend a lot of time thinking about the Monty Hall paradox or whatever you choose to call it.  There seems to be a way to adapt that to roulette dozens or columns.

I'm still thinking on that thing that should happen more often but doesn't.

Naturally, I'll be here some to harass the rank and file.

Sam

TCS


Your Monty Hall problem got me thinking .... ( not an easy task )


Anyways this is what I came up with playing "What's behind door # 1"


IF it spans out to anything concrete, I'll post the system.




Buffster

TCS


Same session ... a few spins further




Buffster

The Monty Hall problem reminds me of a trick...which isn't a trick actually


Perhaps Bayes knows this one....and why the probability is better


Now I may of remembered this wrong.


3 cups....one has a ball under it. I know where the ball is....the person playing the game doesn't.


They choose a cup and say this one.


I point to one a) without a ball and b) not the one they picked and say "this one doesn't have the ball.


if they then swap their choice with the 2 cups I didn't point out... they will win more than sticking with their 1st choice over 10 or 20 etc games etc


the probability is more favourable if you always swap....

Buffster

I'm all ears!!

Turner

unless I'm mistaken, that IS the Monty Hall paradox.


Sam

TCS


Ok this is still the same session... bit further DOWN the road




I'm using a plus 1 progression and I don't back down until I reach a new high.


The HUGE spike you see is at level 12




Buffster

LMAO....I just googled .."3 cups always swap probability"...it said Monty Hall


never mind....it was a program about odds and probabilities where I saw it.


feel a bit daft now

4 weeks?  You staying in the 48 Sam or are you packing the passport?

May as well spill the beans cuz I'm sure it will TANK sooner or later.




System Name: What's behind door number 1




Play 1 spin


Bet 1 unit on the dozen that just hit


If you win rebet same amount on the same dozen


If you lose, bet triple the amount on same dozen and also on the other dozen that did not hit.


If you win and are at new high reset to 1 unit ... if not continue at the same level till new high.


If you hit a ZERO and your on a single dozen bet just rebet same amount on the preceding dozen.


If you hit a ZERO and your on a double dozen bet start your next bet a the next level.




That's pretty much it.




I'll try and post a sample session.




Buffster




PS if this does turn out to be a HG I'll post a DONATE sign next to my name 

TCS


A bit further DOWN the road...


This spike is at Level 28.




But at spin 624 I was at level 11 and was within 3 units of my last high and could have reset, but I stayed true to the system and it started to go back down till I reached level 28 and started to come back up and pass my old high.




So maybe with a few more rules ( brakes ) added to the system this may be GOLD




Buffster

The cliff we fall off in a mechanical system me thinks.

Turner


Me thinks what you thinks, now me thinks me have to work on proper progression for this Mechanical Mess.


There is still a light at the end of the tunnel, I'm sure, but I just can't see it yet. Anyone....Anyone...Buller !!!




Buffster

Quote from: RouletteKEY on August 23, 2013, 08:37:21 PM
4 weeks?  You staying in the 48 Sam or are you packing the passport?

No, Key, no pass-a-port!  We be stayin' in the US of A.

First a family reunion and the up North almost to Alaska. 

We will be driving the Cat Mobile!

Sam

Sweet.

TCS


You'll probably only see this when you get back ... so have a good vacation.


OK...so I managed to CONTROL (yeah ) the progression, but it's harder to get out of the whole. Like watching paint dry.


Betting 1.00$ units it took 615 spins to make 100.00


Maximum level was 5.


Max Drawdown was 89.


Take a look




Buffster