Quote from: soxfan on April 08, 2015, 12:41:43 AM
The LIAR is not so important for me cuz I can withstand 10L and capture my coup of back to back win for a nice profit. I still maintain that different bs style offer up different w/l cluster. Some bs style are better than other for capturing back to back wins. So it isn't a one size fit all proposition as far as matching bs style with progression/mm plan, hey hey.

I've never lost 10L as far as I can remember.  Don't think so.  Lost 9 IAR twice.  7 IAR numerous times.  I can't quite figure how a back to back win can recoup 10L IAR.  Did you post that prog once before?

Quote from: Jimske on April 09, 2015, 03:44:47 PM
I've never lost 10L as far as I can remember.  Don't think so.  Lost 9 IAR twice.  7 IAR numerous times.  I can't quite figure how a back to back win can recoup 10L IAR.  Did you post that prog once before?

I post up my progression style, again, so you can see it can stand 10LIAR, then capture back to back win and skate with 25 unit of sweet sweet sweet profits, hey hey.

2-2-2-6-8-10-15-20-25-35-50 units bets
6-4-2-12-12-10-15-15-10-15-25 units profit

I was reading the Barstow book again last night. (Beat the Casino) He has a lot of ideas for progressions and partner play. It's a good little book. He is fond of a parlay bet himself and said after much experimenting that he found a series of six parlay attempts to be a good compromise.

I always thought this thread by Mike was one of the most interesting threads ever posted on this forum.

http://betselection.cc/even-chance-8/how-to-get-an-edge-flat-betting-%28in-theory%29/msg22774/#msg22774

cheers

Quote from: soxfan on April 09, 2015, 08:46:26 PM
I post up my progression style, again, so you can see it can stand 10LIAR, then capture back to back win and skate with 25 unit of sweet sweet sweet profits, hey hey.

2-2-2-6-8-10-15-20-25-35-50 units bets
6-4-2-12-12-10-15-15-10-15-25 units profit

Yup,  I remember.  Thanks.

If you lose all 11 bets, your loss will b 175 units. In a $10 table, the loss will be $875. Unless you have a bet selection that wins a parlay within 11 tries, your loss will be excessive. In my testing usual bet selections, DBL, ODBL, OLD, FLD etc. are losers with 11 step parlay progression.

Quote from: james on April 10, 2015, 12:22:58 PM
If you lose all 11 bets, your loss will b 175 units. In a $10 table, the loss will be $875. Unless you have a bet selection that wins a parlay within 11 tries, your loss will be excessive. In my testing usual bet selections, DBL, ODBL, OLD, FLD etc. are losers with 11 step parlay progression.

My lifetime bankroll is 1800 unit so a single progression bust don't clip me for more than 10% of my roll. My bs style is "trending" but with 10% subjective plays. And, on average I buck up against a coupla progression busts every week but that's just the cost of doing business, nothing more or less, hey hey.

Quote from: james on April 10, 2015, 12:22:58 PM
If you lose all 11 bets, your loss will b 175 units. In a $10 table, the loss will be $875. Unless you have a bet selection that wins a parlay within 11 tries, your loss will be excessive. In my testing usual bet selections, DBL, ODBL, OLD, FLD etc. are losers with 11 step parlay progression.

Yes, I believe you are correct.  But those bet selections and others are too simplistic.  Consider simply betting one side - P B; R B; O E, etc.  All you need is a run of 10 or more to bust the prog.  Pretty easy to lose.  So you need a refined bet selection.

According to IMSpirit going to lose 10 or more about every 1200 bets.  So if that is accurate then I just ran through 7200 bets (actually way more) without losing 10 IAR.  Anybody figure the SD on that?

The Frank Barstow in his book said he knew of an oldtimer who made a good income for 30 year just usin a parlay progression grinding it out at the dice tables, hey hey.

I think Frank was onto something with the parlays Soxfan.

I was just working out a 12 stepper which won't break the bank.

1) 1-2-4  +3/-1
2) 1-2-4 +2/-1
3) 1-2-4 +1/-3
4) 2-4-8 +3/-5
5) 2-4-8 +1/-7
6) 3-6-12 +2/-10
7) 4-8-16 +2/-14
8} 5-10-20 +1/-19
9) 7-14-28 +2/-26
10) 9-18-36 +1/-35
11) 12-24-48 +1/-47
12) 16-32-64 +1-63

It's a bit basic...but there you go.

Then there was that Seth guy with his 'Target Betting' approach.

bet 1 lose -1 (stay at 1 on a loss)
bet 1 lose -2
bet 1 lose -3
bet 1 win -2 (now add your current loss and add 1 = 3. bet that sum to gain +1)
bet 3 lose -5
bet 3 lose -8
bet 3 win -5 (so 5 +1 = 6.)
bet 6 win +1. reset.  This one could get scary.

cheers

I liked seth and his  target approach but its just a hidden martingale in reality --- the bets get so out of hand

Quote from: Jimske on April 10, 2015, 09:57:00 PM
All you need is a run of 10 or more to bust the prog.  Pretty easy to lose.

Even easier to "bust the prog" than you'd think, Jimske.

You see, my friend, with Soxter's parlay progression (or, frankly, any parlay method), the losses needn't necessarily come in "consecutive" fashion, and yet the player could still be in trouble:

W L W L W L.....this scenario is just as precarious (probably even more so) for the parlay player, because even though they've won half their bets, they'll find themselves going into step #4 of their progression ladder, having failed to complete either of the first three parlay attempts.

So it's not just consecutive losses than can hurt this player, but how the losses pan out in their current play is just as vital.  The player that is currently finding that second consecutive win rather elusive will not do well with their parlay bids.

Now, that all said, I happen to be a fan of parlays.  But I prefer to measure my "sense of timing" at this particular shoe and/or session BEFORE simply "blindly" parlaying.  In other words, what is my current strike rate AFTER any particular win?  Am I winning 2 bets in-a-row with any consistency right now?....If that answer is affirmative, then by all means, the parlay is an important part of my MM arsenal.

So MM becomes a bit like trending.....adjusting usages to the current conditions.

Soxfan progression requires two consecutive wins in 11 attempts. This is not easy to achieve. For every parlay win there are three losses. Actually with HA the parlay losses will be slightly more than three. At every bet level for every win there are 3+ losses and the losses at higher bet levels will be more.

I believe in precognition and some people with subjective bet selection can achieve a parlay hit within 11 attempts. For those not gifted, this is a dangerous progression.

Quote from: james on April 11, 2015, 11:08:12 PM
Soxfan progression requires two consecutive wins in 11 attempts. This is not easy to achieve. For every parlay win there are three losses. Actually with HA the parlay losses will be slightly more than three. At every bet level for every win there are 3+ losses and the losses at higher bet levels will be more.

I believe in precognition and some people with subjective bet selection can achieve a parlay hit within 11 attempts. For those not gifted, this is a dangerous progression.

I disagree, totally! If a cat can't capture regular coup of back to back wins then he need to quit the baccrats and sell pencil outta the tincup on a streets corner somewhere, hey hey.

Quote from: gr8player on April 11, 2015, 08:22:47 PM
Even easier to "bust the prog" than you'd think, Jimske.

You see, my friend, with Soxter's parlay progression (or, frankly, any parlay method), the losses needn't necessarily come in "consecutive" fashion, and yet the player could still be in trouble:

W L W L W L.....this scenario is just as precarious (probably even more so) for the parlay player, because even though they've won half their bets, they'll find themselves going into step #4 of their progression ladder, having failed to complete either of the first three parlay attempts.

So it's not just consecutive losses than can hurt this player, but how the losses pan out in their current play is just as vital.  The player that is currently finding that second consecutive win rather elusive will not do well with their parlay bids.

Now, that all said, I happen to be a fan of parlays.  But I prefer to measure my "sense of timing" at this particular shoe and/or session BEFORE simply "blindly" parlaying.  In other words, what is my current strike rate AFTER any particular win?  Am I winning 2 bets in-a-row with any consistency right now?....If that answer is affirmative, then by all means, the parlay is an important part of my MM arsenal.

So MM becomes a bit like trending.....adjusting usages to the current conditions.

Hmmm?  Thank you Gr8.  But you see, my friend, the prog probably restarts on break even or any win so WLWLWL not a problem.  Can't lose more than 175 units if not get a double win but can win and restart along the way.

After WLWLWL you already lost the first 3 bets in the progression and now you have to bet the fourth bet in the progression.