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Topic: AVOIDING EXTREME VARIANCE IN PROGRESSION...  (Read 464 times)

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Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

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AVOIDING EXTREME VARIANCE IN PROGRESSION...
« on: September 13, 2018, 03:11:15 AM »
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  • Gentlemen,
    Since the first casino open stall, thousands of systems that people devised can't beat the casino, and the math prof.  shrieking their lung out since, that we can't have edge, or win and beatthe casino's holy grail, that namely roulette, they say we can't even win, if the wheel have no green!

    Maybe we should leave the betselection and move to other plane, that avoiding extreme variance in the progression itself.

    We know that, when extreme in bet selection, hit, the winning hit keep sleeping and our progression keep snowballing till we bust our br,
    thus if we wait for the extreme in selection, and virtual bet the progression, till the selection stabilized,  then we bet the progression halfway, we already "save",  a bundle of our br, and proceed to win.

    This way , we already avoid the edge, and avoid the debacle of busting our br.

    In oversimplified example,
    Labby win when 33%+1,
    When we bet from the start virtually with 1u, as the 1st bet, we wait for extreme variance, and when it seem to stabilized,  we bet the labby halfway, thus the winning is more than 1u, and if losing extreme keep coming, the cut losses, is not vis a vis, and out of context , or out of sync mathematically. ?...
    What your opinion?


    Offline TheMagician

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    Re: AVOIDING EXTREME VARIANCE IN PROGRESSION...
    « Reply #1 on: September 13, 2018, 10:43:06 AM »
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  • Gentlemen,

    When we bet from the start virtually with 1u, as the 1st bet, we wait for extreme variance, and when it seem to stabilized,  we bet the labby halfway, thus the winning is more than 1u, and if losing extreme keep coming, the cut losses, is not vis a vis, and out of context , or out of sync mathematically. ?...
    What your opinion?

    Your point is valid though I see many errors in your suggestion on how to avoid extreme variance. Let me explain a few things about this.

    1/
    First of all, Variance is a language and he who wishes to speak and understand a language must first know the letters, words and grammar of a said language. So far on this board as well on other, I have failed to see any such knowledge and much less understanding. To most, variance remains a mystery in games of chance, and consequently, they treat it like such trying to avoid it or fight it with various bet selections that don't hold muster in the face of this UNKNOWN. Hence the erroneous choice of progressive bets, and inevitably, the hard finality of going bust.

    2/
    Now, whenever you make a Bet selection, you make a choice of specific numbers to bet on the wheel (or the layout and its various patterns). When that bet happens you have set specific laws in motion that works against you on basis of probability and the uncertainty principle.

    Your bet, whether it wins or loses, creates a VARIANCE CURVE, depending on the size of the bet in terms of units versus the total number of numbers on the wheel (37  or 38 depending on SZ or DZ config). Here the payout is also important because it decides the win-loss ratio.

    e.g. If your bet is 12 units and you win your payout is basically 2 to 1 (including your bet on the winning number.) A Variance curve here will consequently go 2 steps up on a win and 1 step down on a loss. If we also implement a Moving Average Line we can see when the curve goes below the win-loss average, or above it.

    To visualize such a curve let me show you an image from one of my platforms for real-time information whenever  I have a need to make a decision whether my bet selections so far are on a positive variance outcome or negative...



    The image shows clearly how such a VARIANCE CURVE can help the player to avoid pitfalls and discover and ride a streak.

    Does this help you?





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    Offline alrelax

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    Re: AVOIDING EXTREME VARIANCE IN PROGRESSION...
    « Reply #2 on: September 13, 2018, 12:21:48 PM »
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  • Right on track! 

    Not to attempt to take anything away from you!  But, the direction, IMO, as a B&M player (Non-Admin/Mod, etc.) is that you are in reality and applying the real outcome of the games to the players! 
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

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    Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

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    Re: AVOIDING EXTREME VARIANCE IN PROGRESSION...
    « Reply #3 on: September 14, 2018, 02:50:59 AM »
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  • Thanks Magician and Alrelax for your views.

    The variance, simply mean, the winning hits, too few, to produce a profit.
    We can't predict when the EXTREME will arrive and go...
    Thus we simply WAIT, for it to present itself, and go...How?
    We can't predict when it will go, we simply wait till the outcome seem to hit within math expectation,
    but then again, the extreme may arrive again! Thus we take the risk, that the extreme won't back2back.

    In any system, you see variance come and go  in a WAVE...

    If you bet any system, FLATBET,
    and chart the result in a single line, you see the line moving like a snake being beaten, up and down, pointing SOUTHEAST,
    due to the edge.

    The up is positive variance, and down is negative variance, and the dropdown like cliff is EXTREME .
    It the extreme causing us losing all our br...

    If we know that variance never failed to present itself in wave, why not JUST WAIT FOR IT TO GO, WHY TAKE THE RISK!?

    Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

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    Re: AVOIDING EXTREME VARIANCE IN PROGRESSION...
    « Reply #4 on: September 14, 2018, 03:04:38 AM »
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  • That labby, is just OVERSIMPLIFIED EXAMPLE, so you could understand.

    If posive and negative always move in wave, albeit unpredictable,
    We move in after extreme hit and start to bet when the line SEEMS to stabilized,
    ("SEEMS", why seems ,b cause we can't predict...thus seems...)

    And any positive 33%+1hit produce profit.

    Thus if you bet virtually HALFWAY!  after the extreme, and you "save", the unhit br....

    Then again, oversimplified example.  So you could understand.

    Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

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    Re: AVOIDING EXTREME VARIANCE IN PROGRESSION...
    « Reply #5 on: September 14, 2018, 03:09:11 AM »
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  • Simply mean, if you bet, and lose, lose, lose, lose....you lose tens of chips, if you really have faith that your systems could outmaneuver the extreme variance, then if you wait the "lose", to go , you save the br, virtually, and continue to bet the progression, and when 33%+1hit,
    You win more than 1u...

    Again, OVERSIMPLIFIED EXAMPLE, so you could understand, how to avoid variance and edge