Do you know how many times one dozen repeat during 1 milion.

I will fix one computer with RX so i can run the simulation.
Had no time yet.

Bayes say around 13 to 14 hits during 1 milion trails.

If that is true, then i can play even money bets with out losing during 1 milion trails, pretty amazing.
Did one test in the past and i pass 800.000 and now i know why it works.

The probability and match is not 1 in 2 when i place my bets.
I apply Markow Chains Metodology.

If you have time to run RX once for 1 million that would be very cool.
Just to see the blending edge for one dozen to repeat.

Quote from: Sputnik on February 03, 2013, 10:45:56 AM

Do you know how many times one dozen repeat during 1 milion.

I will fix one computer with RX so i can run the simulation.
Had no time yet.

Bayes say around 13 to 14 hits during 1 milion trails.

If that is true, then i can play even money bets with out losing during 1 milion trails, pretty amazing.
Did one test in the past and i pass 800.000 and now i know why it works.

The probability and match is not 1 in 2 when i place my bets.
I apply Markow Chains Metodology.

If you have time to run RX once for 1 million that would be very cool.
Just to see the blending edge for one dozen to repeat.

Are you saying you can flat bet any dozen for one million spins and end with a worthwhile profit?

I know how to win with out losing in the long run and even during the short term.
It depends on strategy and what kind of methodology you will apply.

One method is to win with draw-downs but still be up in the positive area overall.
That is not being all in.
Cycle based methodology and staking levels.

Illustration picture.




Methodolody in the long run win, but not much overall as you have to deal with serios variance and fluctation, so the method has to be based upon that and deal with it.
In one way that is like going all in and a method does not have to have a deadline.

Illustration Picture.

QuoteAre you saying you can flat bet any dozen for one million spins and end with a worthwhile profit?

Here is one picture among others i had many years ago (lost them all and had to google for them) that is part of the test that pass 800.000.
This one is all in and as you can see winnings chop overall, but there is no massive winnings.

I pretty sure there is a way staying at the edge of things.
One of them is not flat betting, that's for sure.

Well it is time to start to write about does things in public.
The down side is that no one notice and just move on to next topic.

One thing i like about John Solitude is that he made a complete PDF document with different kinds of strategy's.
Full gaming plan overall.

I am pretty sure if some one has the money, they could succeed playing against the blending deadline using Marty and stay in the positive overall.
With some regression after some winnings you would be in the safe area protecting some of your winnings.
Much of it boils down to mentality.

Today John Solitude is playing poker and involved with the stock market, trading.
Gambling is risky and there is no safe roads to success.

I believe in two things when it boils down to system and roulette.
Betting against the blending deadline is fine if you apply some kind of regression plan.
And cycle based methodology is fine if you can deal with the stressful life style.

Great Subject . . .

Would like to know more about how you calculate and apply the changing states of Markov Chains to get your bet selection.

Looks like this cycle methodology can be coded into a bot and some trailing profit stops might improve the overall results.

Can you explain more on how use the Markov Chains?

Thanks

Nick

Well there exist many options for cycle based methodology ...
I recent got some very clever things going with some new line of thinking.

I just have to fix my other computer running RX ...
I have Linux and got some suggestion from other members how to deal with my situation.

Also playing around with the blending edge with regression plan would be a pretty cool option.

I've run hundreds of simulations like this.  Look at your draw down.  Two questions:

1.  Would you really stick with it long enough to invest that kind of money?
2.  Would you hit the table limit?

The answers are usually no and yes.

A simple Martingale on Red will show similar results over thousands of spins with unlimited bankroll and no table limits.

Sam

Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 03, 2013, 03:23:09 PM
I've run hundreds of simulations like this.  Look at your draw down.  Two questions:

1.  Would you really stick with it long enough to invest that kind of money?
2.  Would you hit the table limit?

The answers are usually no and yes.

A simple Martingale on Red will show similar results over thousands of spins with unlimited bankroll and no table limits.

Sam

Would you play as the robot with your own money?  The reason we win  more in simulation and fun, is we do not face the risk to lose much, and can set a bankroll higher than with real money.


If I lose 200 Euro I stop and wait a few weeks before I play real again, that's because I want not lose much, and not give previous winning back. Should I stop winning for a longer period, I would assume I it is no use play more and keep the winnings I got.


In fun mode as soon the winnings come, you can take more risks and then it is possible to win astronomic some times. Hard to implement real. The pic is fun for the last ten days, the real is about 30 Euro plus for the same time ( got two losses together 100 Euro).

Ralph

My point exactly.  Who would put in 10,000 units and be OK with watching it drop by half?  Here is just such a graph from years ago.

Sam

It does not do much, around 0.2 or 0.3 ...
If you not going to hit the deadline during your life time.
So you might look for other option if you would like to become rich.

TCS what is the method of that chart 1 in 2 ? or 1 in 6 ?
Line, Street, Corner ?

Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 03, 2013, 04:16:11 PM
Ralph

My point exactly.  Who would put in 10,000 units and be OK with watching it drop by half?  Here is just such a graph from years ago.

Sam

Exactly Sam. When its real hard earned money. We are far more cautious and jittery about taking risks. When its fun money we don't have that reserve. And as ralph and others have found out. It then becomes easier to see and find ways of beating this game.

Its like game shows, in the UK often the people that go all the way are the ones who don't really need the money. So they're prepared to take those extra risks. The ones who are watching every penny can't afford to risk 50k to win a million.

Its the mind that stops us REALLY going forward with this game. It really is.

Quote from: JohnLegend on February 03, 2013, 05:38:25 PM
Exactly Sam. When its real hard earned money. We are far more cautious and jittery about taking risks. When its fun money we don't have that reserve. And as ralph and others have found out. It then becomes easier to see and find ways of beating this game.

Its like game shows, in the UK often the people that go all the way are the ones who don't really need the money. So they're prepared to take those extra risks. The ones who are watching every penny can't afford to risk 50k to win a million.

Its the mind that stops us REALLY going forward with this game. It really is.

Even with odds on our side we do not always gambling. If somebody want to toss a coin and say your 40 dollar watch against  80 dollars cash,most of us  will take the bet. If the other say your 10000 dollar car against 14000 dollar, only gamblers will take it, and if it is your all property including the house worth  500 000 dollar against 600 000 dollars, near nobody would take the bet.

Sputnik, for what it's worth, Turbogenius ran 1 million RNG spins keeping track of longest sleepers AND repeaters. The results are available at his website, you can find them here.

QuoteDozen bet (betting on 12 numbers at once)
payout is 2 to 1
odds of winning are 1 in 3.08
(European Table Single 0)
and 1 in 3.16 (American Table Double 0)

Most spins without a showing :
35 spins (1 dozen did this)

Longest repeating dozen :
13 spins (1 dozen did this)

Column bets (betting on 12 numbers at once)
payout and odds same as dozen bets

Most spins without a showing :
38 spins (1 column did this)

Longest repeating column :
12 spins (2 columns did this)

Hope this helps.

Quote from: Wildcard on February 03, 2013, 08:21:35 PM
Sputnik, for what it's worth, Turbogenius ran 1 million RNG spins keeping track of longest sleepers AND repeaters. The results are available at his website, you can find them here.



Hope this helps.

Its like I said I have never seen the 40 barrier broken for dozens. Random has virtual limits. that's just not a very practical one. Unless you are doing it Ralph style with his bot machine.