-
We all know that you can not win plus one unit on regular basis and that it overcome the attempts doing so !
The question is if trends and domination can compensate !
-
Attack three times to jump on board a trend or any kind of domination, the entering point ...
Win and continue or break even and restart or hit the negative expectation (NE) ...
-
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
-3 NE
+0
-4 NE
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
-3 NE
+1
+1
+1
-3 NE
-3 NE
+0
-4 NE
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
-3 NE
+0
-4 NE
+1
+0
-
So if i look at the opportunity to aim for and have a chance to catch a trend or domination, then the entering points using three attempts are overwhelming ...
+33 positive entering points
-6 negative expectation exit points
-
But if we see the units, based upon entering and exit alone, then its pretty even ...
So again my question is if trending and domination can compensate ?

+33
-27

 

Quote

So if i look at the opportunity to aim for and have a chance to catch a trend
or domination, then the entering points using three attempts are overwhelming
...
+33 positive entering points
-6 negative expectation exit points

.
What is all this about ?
Well there has to exist some kind of methodology based upon trending and aim for domination ...
Then it should start out with basics, when and how do we entering as in entering points and when do we exit as in exit points ...
.
What happen next is if we are going to skip the alternative progression, then when have exit point with negative expectation, then what ...
I like the idea that the loss limit of the exit point around 3 to 4 units become the next rung or win goal to break even ...
.
This is what i think is a pretty valid method to deal with trends and domination !
What is left is how to play and what kind of strategy to use when you are in the last state, the negative expectations exit point and aim to breaking even ...
.
The first idea that strike my mind is try to grind out/up toward even or hit loss limit.
Then what kind of amounts are we speaking of, session bankroll for the day and win goal and loss limit ...
.
I would say 200 Euro session bankroll and aim for 20% or 40 Euro ...
Loss limit 100 Euro.
.
This way if you win 20% fine and if you hit negative expectation win 20% fine (break even) and if not and you are in the big hole you end up with the loss limit.

.
Off topic ...
.
This show how easy it is being ahead using a progression.
As John Patrick put it, 70% of all people who visit a casino are at some moment ahead, still 95% of does will go home as losers.
.
This just show how important there is to have a methodology to follow and apply money management ...
.
Cheers

.
Back to the investigation ...
Now i try to ride out the trend or domination using regression to see if it would compensate ...
.
This result show how rare it is to catch domination and make it capitalize ...
The positive side of the coin do is when you are on a trend you can not lose you initial staking ... using regression ...
.
This my short test that hovering around zero point.
+15,5
-11,5
.
Entering and Exit points ...
+0,5
-3 NE
+0
+0,5
+0,5
+2,0
+0,5
-3 NE
+0
+0
+0,5
+0,5
+0,5
+3,5
+0
+0
+0
+2
+0
+0,5
-3 NE
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0,5
+0
+0,5
+0,5
+0
+0
+0,5
+0
+0
+0,5
+0,5
+0,5
+0
+0
-2,5
+0,5
-3 NE

.

The idea is to see how the Entering points and Exit points behave, how and when you are on board the trend or domination, then will it continue or cut you short and you might considering start all over.
.
Flat betting comparing towards regression has a slight difference ...
Flat betting break even more often then regression ...
I find the regression being superior ...
.
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
-3 NE
+3
+0
+0
-3 NE
+0
+0
+0
+3
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-3 NE
+0
+0
+3
+0
.
Cheers

.
This is why you might considering does who claim they are flat betting and aim for trends/domination might lie ...
This is the bet selection i use to win or break even with this experiment.
.
I use three existing states with the probability 1 in 3.
If i see one state i would follow that state to repeat.
If a loss then i have two present states, then i would follow does two to break even.
.
Now if i fail i have three states out of three existing state showing, alternating.
.
With dozen explanation.
You see one dozen and you follow it to repeat.
If not then you have two dozen to show and you bet that one of does two will show and break even.
.
I pick this selection as we know that one dozen can sleep for 32 times in a row ...
And i am pretty sure there is no better selection as they all should be the same ...
.
Cheers

You show that entering and exit points are common and do indeed exist....another name for hit and run perhaps? 

Quote from: subby on March 21, 2013, 12:37:33 PM
You show that entering and exit points are common and do indeed exist....another name for hit and run perhaps? 

True, but the topic is about entering/exit points when it comes to trends and domination ... with out progression ...

-

We also assume when we got + that we would continue hitting our win target, that could be any between 10 to 20% of our daily session bankroll ... did not test that do ...
Still flat betting and regression is like swimming with the sharks in very deep water ...

 
.
I find a way to follow the wheel using domination, i got results like +13 . +7,5 . +3 . +6 . +5,5
That was flat betting and with regression does result would been much better ...
.
I will try to find a desktop video recorder like TCS has and make videos to back track with explanation ...
.
Run one more ...
Session bankroll 200 ... minimum bet 10 ... loss limit 100 ... win target 40 ...
+40,0
+30,5
+30,0
+30,0
-100
+50
-30
+50
+60,5
+0
.
+300
-130
= +170 after 10 sessions

.
I think the unit size at 10 is way to high if you have a session bankroll around 200 and should be more like 5 ...

Betting  a base bet of 5  multiply by 40 and you will find the proper bankroll  per session.   50 % LL is  way too high but 30 % will  do the trick  too.


N.D.

Happy Winnings !!!!

With this method you won`t need  a rabbits foot, a four leaf clover, a horse shoe  , or chicken blood.

Quote from: Sputnik on March 21, 2013, 10:33:38 AM
.
Off topic ...
.
This show how easy it is being ahead using a progression.
As John Patrick put it, 70% of all people who visit a casino are at some moment ahead, still 95% of does will go home as losers.
.
This just show how important there is to have a methodology to follow and apply money management ...
.
Cheers

-Once one start addopt above facts,will mostly walk out from the casino as a winner.

Quote from: NathanDetroit on March 22, 2013, 03:20:40 PM
Betting  a base bet of 5  multiply by 40 and you will find the proper bankroll  per session.   50 % LL is  way too high but 30 % will  do the trick  too.


N.D.

Happy Winnings !!!!

With this method you won`t need  a rabbits foot, a four leaf clover, a horse shoe  , or chicken blood.

ND if you play minimum 10 Euro, then how would you set up the daily figure for your session bankroll ...

Basic  bet    $ 10  x 40  = $400 per session   x 3 sessions . Bankroll required $ 1,  200.

Win goal 15- 20 % LL 25 % or  3 losses in a row.

Attempt to win 2 out of 3 sessions.

Additional  MM forwarded in a separate PM  to you.

N.D.

For recreational purposes only.  Play at your own risk.

 
Thanks ND