Fallacy & Belief in Brief

What is Fallacy and Belief?  In the casino and outside of it.  It is really basically the same, at least IMO.

Say a person goes to a restaurant and eats there.  He or she does not like it for whatever reasons.  Maybe the food was good but the experience was bad?  Maybe the food was not up to their expectations?  Maybe something happened alongside with the trip to the restaurant and no matter what 100 other people would factually think about the food, the person that just entered had other things going on within themselves that no matter what was served to them the opinion would be totally negative. 

Here is another example.  My son and I really like a certain mall.  It is a very popular mall and by no way, antiquated, secluded or off the beaten path, etc.  It is easy to park, lots of space, lots of other things around it, clean, a great play place for him that he really enjoys more than even the Mall of America with the huge and over the top, Nickelodeon Amusement Park in the middle of it.  A great Barnes & Noble store.  Countless food options, great restrooms, a huge movie theater with all the extras.  The list is long.  The wife does not like the place in her opinion and she has not really spent any time there.  She just does not prefer it for some reason as compared to other malls in the region.  Ask her, and she will say everything negative, too far, no good, I don't like the place and many other things except a real valid reason for not liking it or wanting to go there.  But if one was to really know her, she has little tendency to agree, cooperate, go along with, merge with others, or anything of the like.  She has a need to lead, retaliate, disagree with, set her own way, always make the discovery and not believe anything represented regardless of research, experience, warranty, etc.  At times nothing wrong with that attitude, especially in business to a certain extent.  But as an overall subscription and operating principal, I don't think that is the best way. 

Why do I say those things?  Because you just might be missing something, losing a great find, stepping on your tail and everything else along those lines.   You might very well be correct in every way, but then again, how would you really know for sure? 

Some people will draw their conclusions from just listening to others.  And IMO, that is subscribing to fallacy.  Yet, other people will not, they remain neutral wanting to experience whatever it is and basing their own advantages or disadvantages from that thing on their own.  They are not outright believing fallacy.

As far as gambling.  Let's set something straight please.  So many on this board and the ones that left the board going to another board, with their same redundant attacks and statements, accuse me of gambling fallacy.  I admit, one cannot beat the math.  But, that is my point!  I have always agreed about that.  But, we play to win.  The dealer is there for the long run, meaning 24/7, the dealers seat is always being played, the customers change for various reasons.  Running out of money, win and leave, being called away, etc.  Mostly running out of money, IMO. 

If you play 10 hands and you happened to win on 6 of them with great positive progressions and parlays, you should by all means, rethink everything going on.  I call that, resetting and refreshing.  Is it possible to win 6 or even 7 out of 10.  Sure!  Is it possible to repeat that every session within the exact time frame you choose on a regular basis?  No way!  Never ever will happen.  Even if it happens within a computer theory program you discovered. 

The math people will probably define it as Probability and Variance, or the house edge, etc.  Like I defined in my other postings, I don't really care about all that, seriously.  I focus on Decisions and Reality as well as the management of what I am engaged in and facing with the shoe presentments.  I do not attempt to beat the casino or the game; I do not attempt to outsmart the casino either.  I just shoot for that section of time where some type of opportunity is presenting itself and I try my best to match up my desires and reality with that.  The programming and the theories will side track you something awful, IMO.

So there is a bit about Fallacy and Belief.  We all have it, no matter what walk of life you come from or what your experience is at the casino.  When you sit down and actually play the game, you will be somewhat influenced by what you have been exposed to, what your knowledge, research, beliefs and desires are.  I cannot see any way around all that.  Maybe you can and maybe you subscribe to engaging in a scheduled wagering pattern according to something you saw on the internet or found on your computer.  But, I just cannot see how that will translate itself to the time frame with the shoes you are playing at the casino?  There is less than a 50% chance of you winning if you believe in the math and greater than a 50% chance of the casino winning your money.  There is no way around all that, including a set schedule of progressions. 

Unless, you work on certain presentments with some type of progression and/or parlays and then totally reset and refresh when you fall off the win section.  You have to give yourself a much larger chance with the accumulated wins to far outweigh your losses and the risk capital, rather than a +1 or a -1 or a +2 or a flat bet, etc.  That will only grind you down.  Reason being, you are attempting a mathematical revenge in reverse on the game to accumulate wins.  It will not work. 

Part 2 will have a brief synopsis of my thoughts and successful progressions and parlays.  To be continued..........

Hi Glen,

Once again I agree that if you can win with your Decisions and Reality then keep on winning.  Everything you said is based on your knowledge and experience and works for you.

However, please do not think that yours is the only way to win.

Cheers

Nick

Quote from: Nickmsi on July 27, 2018, 07:12:39 PM
Hi Glen,

Once again I agree that if you can win with your Decisions and Reality then keep on winning.  Everything you said is based on your knowledge and experience and works for you.

However, please do not think that yours is the only way to win.

Cheers

Nick

Absolutely I don't think that.

And I think I said the other day in a post I'm sure you seen, that I said seven people at the table and every one of them can win or lose and in many different or various ways. Winning has a lot to do with lots of thought and lots of different style and beliefs, etc.

If I said something or insinuated mine was the only way, it was said  tongue and cheek and in a comical way.  I absolutely do not believe that mine is the only way.