Gentlemen,
Evry method , or strategy has a shortcoming,
Thus we should analyze,  what that SHORTCOMING IS!?
And act accordingly, to avoid them and to accept them when it occur uncontrollably? !

Let say,
FOLLOW THE LAST IN BACCARAT.
What and how to avoid and the progression to overide them?

Simply stated, baccarat knowns to STREAKY, AND CHOPPY...
This going back to the basic debate...anyone?

Lets debate,
WHY WE LOSE WITH THE
"FOLLOW THE LAST IN BACCARAT?"

Where the shortcoming that caused the losing?
Why progression fail  to overcome it in long term?

Whether FTL or OTL, there will be times when each of the methods work like a dream and times when you will be taken to the slaughterhouse.

To my mind therefore, in this random game with periods of non random trends, the key to winning is in the Loss Management of your visit. Everybody wins at some point. When they start losing, they have to enforce strict discipline of Loss Management because the losses creep up on you. Win one lose two. Win two lose two. Win two lose three. Win one lose two. And soon the winnings and the capital are together decimated. Gizmo despite his professions of his ability to keep track of win/loss had his failings at this precise situation. Perhaps he has improved on it.  But in any case, my moot point is that Loss Management is the key. Not bet selection. But feel free to disagree.

Quote from: Lungyeh on January 25, 2019, 03:39:49 AM
And soon the winnings and the capital are together decimated. Gizmo despite his professions of his ability to keep track of win/loss had his failings at this precise situation. Perhaps he has improved on it.  But in any case, my moot point is that Loss Management is the key. Not bet selection. But feel free to disagree.

I don't disagree with any of this. And I have improved on this a lot. Yes, this was the monkey on my back. I kept giving back my winnings. What helped the most was noticing that seeing the bigger picture made seeing the bet selections themselves more in the form of bigger waves. I was no longer looking for the short spurts of success. I changed to seeing the entire gambling experience as a single event. The session is a single event with domination, weak side / strong side, as the best trend to look out for. I was using the big Caterpillar D-10 Bulldozer to grind away at the task at hand. That is the big tool to overpower the slow grind downward. But it too can encounter catastrophic losing stretches or streaks just like any other bet selection process. This occurs when you really don't have one side weak and the other side strong. Then your wishful thinking or your impatience takes over and you make risky mistakes. So I stay out of conditions that are not the best.


I added to that bet selection method three net big valued bets and done. An example would be three $250 net wins, $750, and the session was won. I learned that playing this method against seven net lost bets was the "stop loss" point best to use against it. I got good too. It took 2.333 won sessions to make up for one lost session. But with my bulldozer, big picture, bet selection method I was winning 4.666 sessions to each lost session. I had a session win rate of 2 to 1. This is a significant ratio too, as I will show you guys. About 6 months ago I came across a video on how to play the stock market like a casino. That opened my eyes to even a bigger picture. It made it easy now to lose and not get anxious about it. It's just all part of getting the monkey off my back. I use virtual bets, unfunded bet selections, when I can't see the strong side / weak side condition somewhere in my charts. A streak of Bankers is still a short lived strong side. So I get one or two net wins from that. But the goal is to get those three net wins and done. The video will explain the logic here.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRCtBRsLPmk


It's taken me four and a half years to put all this together. I've added something to it in the past month that is interesting, - better even. But I need to prove it works better first before mentioning it.


I hope that makes sense. Hopefully that video will open a few eyes here in the gambling world. It put me on to self control.

You are both correct in many ways.  Problem with reading, researching, implementing, and all that is we each interpret and use it all in different ways the author was or we merge it all along with other things that have worked or not performed well for each of us in our own past experiences. 

Hence, mixing a chemical that should not be mixed with another and all that.  Same basis for problems.

I have spent months working on 5 in depth articles relating to actual play and the reasons why, just most all players never see past the score board at stuff like 1's and 2's are more frequent than everything else type of strategies, and like Jimske points out, most no one cares, believes or has interest in reading much more than a paragraph or two.  LOL, but very true. 

Possibly that is why Jay Silva and people like that can take online republished bac games, voice over and talk a carnival type of showmanship and sell intangible systems making a fortune.  Etc., Etc., etc.

Major problem #1 in player at baccarat is, almost no one understands visualization and how it effects you with the game.  As well as false positives running a close 2nd.  All IMO and unproven and non-certified and undocumented 35 years plus of playing in casinos.

If we draw a line CHART,  of our win/lose result, of  FLAT BET..FTL..
say , one thousand spins, we could see a zig zagging line toward SE...

The sharp valley show losses of extreme negative variance, and upward cliff show extreme POSITIVE variance...then HOW could we take risk and bet with mild progression?

Don't fund the valleys:


This is a graph of 100 spins all bet on Red. It's the same as FTL as far as showing valleys or mountains:


[attachimg=1]

I'm a little unintelligent about following technology and relationship from it in gambling, you guys know my position.  And I'm not being a wise-behind and I'm not insinuating any type of derogatory statement here Mark.

How does one know when they sit down at the table where they fit in, in those type of charts?  Such as when you look at a weather chart with the time day you know at 11am what temperature or snowfall or precipitation or Sunshine it is going to be by the estimated published rate and you compare that to the time of day it currently is. I understand that, but how do you do that with a gambling chart?

Quote from: Lungyeh on January 25, 2019, 03:39:49 AM
Whether FTL or OTL, there will be times when each of the methods work like a dream and times when you will be taken to the slaughterhouse.

To my mind therefore, in this random game with periods of non random trends, the key to winning is in the Loss Management of your visit. Everybody wins at some point. When they start losing, they have to enforce strict discipline of Loss Management because the losses creep up on you. Win one lose two. Win two lose two. Win two lose three. Win one lose two. And soon the winnings and the capital are together decimated. Gizmo despite his professions of his ability to keep track of win/loss had his failings at this precise situation. Perhaps he has improved on it.  But in any case, my moot point is that Loss Management is the key. Not bet selection. But feel free to disagree.

It appears that the only regular posters that would disagree are Asym and Giz.

Quote from: Jimske on January 26, 2019, 05:35:39 PM
It appears that the only regular posters that would disagree are Asym and Giz.

My response already was: "I don't disagree with any of this."


To be quite clear I'll state it again. I agree completely.

Quote from: alrelax on January 26, 2019, 02:54:13 PM
How does one know when they sit down at the table where they fit in, in those type of charts?  Such as when you look at a weather chart with the time day you know at 11am what temperature or snowfall or precipitation or Sunshine it is going to be by the estimated published rate and you compare that to the time of day it currently is. I understand that, but how do you do that with a gambling chart?

I don't keep a graph when I play. That's just to demonstrate visually that up or down swarms occur while you play. When you see chop you don't visualize valleys, downward slopes, inclines, or mountains. But you can see the slow grind downward in your results. If you keep a chart, it can even be stacks of chips of two different colors, you can show wins or losses. Look at these two charts  wwlwlwwlllwwlwlwlwl  & wwLwLwwLLLwwLwLwLwL. One is easier to read the changes than the other. Now look at this: pbpbpbpppbbbppbb vs pBpBpBpppBBBppBB. Now look at this type of chart: X=XX==X=X=X===X==XXX=. You can stack white chips mixed with red chips to show wins and losses. So you make a best guess on every hand or spin.  You look at what is happening and decide to fund the bets or not. You know when you are in a grind that is upward or downward. You can see a win streak or a losing streak. You can see one side as strong and one side as weak. Nobody can know the future but you can know the middle of something continuing. Anything that continues to keep going is all you need to know. You can know when a perfect win streak stops. You can know when singles on the weak side stop. If you can't see anything continuing then don't fund the guesses. But keep making the guesses based on your best impressions of the trends or patterns anyway. You need a wL list to see what is working even if they are just virtual bets. Does that explain it?

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 26, 2019, 07:54:16 PM

My response already was: "I don't disagree with any of this."


To be quite clear I'll state it again. I agree completely.

OK, my bad.  I was under the impression you had a prediction method.

Quote from: Jimske on January 26, 2019, 08:56:26 PM
OK, my bad.  I was under the impression you had a prediction method.

No. Prediction is impossible. All I can do is get into synchronization of when my guesses are working. After more than a decade quarreling with Caleb/General/Snowman/Xander/Dr Nobody/etc... I have tried to make it clear that I can't predict any future outcomes. Accept perhaps for this prediction. He will continue to gather his sycophant army to record spins from wheels for him from all over the world. It's nothing less than a Cult following.

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 26, 2019, 09:16:23 PM

No. Prediction is impossible. All I can do is get into synchronization of when my guesses are working. After more than a decade quarreling with Caleb/General/Snowman/Xander/Dr Nobody/etc... I have tried to make it clear that I can't predict any future outcomes. Accept perhaps for this prediction. He will continue to gather his sycophant army to record spins from wheels for him from all over the world. It's nothing less than a Cult following.

Excellent. Reality. Realization. Correct Mark.

Indeed , prediction is impossible,
Flatbet single unit LINE CHART,  is a simple way to SEE, INSTEAD OF IMAGINATION...

TO SEE,
How the extreme negative variance, zigzag with the EXTREME POSITIVE VARIANCE.

Only the positive variance give advantage to progression, while, as everyone knows, extreme negative, kills the br!