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If you had money - then why would you pick roulette as investment?

Started by Sputnik, March 14, 2015, 04:57:11 PM

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Sputnik


John Patrick mention one thing that strike my mind.
Does who has 2 to 5K or more look for other investment then roulette.

If this is true, then most members don't even have a solid bankroll.

Cheers

horus

There is one simple reason for picking roulette over other casino games at least.

A single hit pays 35/1!

You can make a lot of money in a short space of time with roulette. The other games are all a bit of a grind. Horesracing and sports betting can offer some nice payouts as well if you are into betting in multiples....BUT....I don't like the human element involved in that sphere where corruption is rife.

Roulette is just you against the wheel.
If you fail to know, fail to prepare, fail to plan and practice, then know full well that you are knowingly preparing and planning to lose. What you don't know and don't do will be your undoing.

Kav

Hi,

That most members do not have the adequate bankroll may be a very good comment.
I think one needs a solid bankroll to be able to stand the test of time. This should be a common disclaimer in all system discussions and holds true even for the Kavouras System.

Indeed the more I think about it the more I believe that the bankroll requirements are often ignored by beginners and it is worth to remind this parameter often. That would be in my opinion much more useful than the constant remind of the house edge. People who know all about the zero, can easily misunderstand the role of the bankroll.

I believe that one of the main reasons people like to play online is that the bets are low, therefore their bankrolls can last longer. In theory this is a good reason to play online, but the most important thing is to find a fair game and that is quite difficult online. Furthermore, even if your online bets seem very low, this doesn't mean your bankroll can be peanuts. Especially so, since online players tend to use aggressive progressions.

Now to answer your question about investments, I would use a Warren Buffet quote "invest only in what you understand". I would add "invest in what you love".  This can be a very good reason to use your bankroll in roulette rather than investing in a pharmaceutical company.

Furthermore, as Horus points out, the possible pay-off can be extremely high in very short time. And you enjoy the adrenalin rush. And you don't have to wake up early in the morning. That's in short the allure of gambling. You enjoy your investment more when it pays off.

Rolex-Watch

Quote from: horus on March 14, 2015, 06:06:17 PM
There is one simple reason for picking roulette over other casino games at least.

A single hit pays 35/1!
No longer does Roulette offer the best return for casino games, well not in the UK at least.  The Super Egalite offers odds through 22/1 to 160/1.  Some casinos pay even higher than 160/1, the max I heard about was 220/1 for predicting a Tie on 1, 200/1 for an 8 on the Player side resulting in a 3-3 Tie.  Sure the odds are long, approx 10%, but what are the odds for guessing a single number on a Roulette table?

Then again, the Euro lottery offers the best return of all, shame the odds are so long.

horus

R-W, Those side-bets look appealing at first glance. But the waiting time and variance unless you play in a team makes them just another slog IMO. A single player tracking for the tie 7 with the  your-Way Egalite side-bet (which should theoretically offer the lowest variance) can average around 2 units per shoe. The casino's where I play also force you to play on either the Banker or Player and the maximum bet for the side-bet is low.

The  your Way Egalite is the best side-bet.

your Way Egalite

    Extremely vulnerable to card counting.
    Ten different wagers, tie on each point total.
    Different card counting system for each.
    Different trigger, EV, frequency , units per shoe for each.
    Team of 3 counters can earn 17.80 units per shoe.
    Team of 3 counters can earn 21.90 units per 100 hands.

I will stick to the wheel thanks.

If you fail to know, fail to prepare, fail to plan and practice, then know full well that you are knowingly preparing and planning to lose. What you don't know and don't do will be your undoing.

XXVV

Thanks for raising this question Sputnik.

I address this from time to time and my answers now will differ from what I thought 3 months ago, 12 months ago, and those were different to several years prior. In other words our views develop, and eventually mature. Also new information comes to hand. A life principle is that we access appropriate ( next step) material automatically when we are ready for it/ are searching for it.

This is how I view the situation today and this is my personal view - others may well well disagree.

Roulette is my favourite live casino game. I like the atmosphere of a well managed and respected casino. Live B+M play has a special quality. Adverse attitudes from staff, dealers or other patrons would immediately cancel a session and choice of locale. In my personal experience within the boutique casino where I play 3-5 times per week, staff and management are mostly friendly and helpful. The MD has a unique and very engaging hands-on attitude with his staff, and frequently is accessible and seen chatting with any staff member from cleaner to bar staff to senior management within the public space. As always the principle within an organisation the values from the top carry through the management chain.

No mistaking however, they are there to promote their business and to win, but evidently to do so with style and a smile. It helps to be known as a valued customer, but of course you still have to overcome the house edge, and hospitality can play into the house's hand.

Latest research in creativity psychology and brain plasticity demonstrates we are fundamentally intrigued and attracted to pattern seeking and analysis, and further by the attraction of random sequences of outcomes and rotating wheels. They can mesmerise.
And we endeavour to try to make sense of all the outcomes.It is a challenge.

All the above indicates a very personal, somewhat subjective view of roulette and it's charms.

Many come and most fail. They always return sooner or later, and the roulette tables are occupied by usually regular players. Yes, by being there every day of the week sometimes I can recognize  the others, and must acknowledge I am a regular player too. I have several friends, acquaintances, familiar faces, both sides of the tables.

Question is, can this familiarity  be turned to advantage as an investment for my time and particularly my money.

My current view is yes with qualifications, and also a massive reminder at just how slippery this game can be, and particularly in the context of all the live distractions scheduled above.

Observation of my own behaviour patterns in the past 12 months, even in the context of having some specialised knowledge of the game, reveals weaknesses in the theoretical ideal of the hard nosed sharp professional.

This attitude can be honed with practice and with success, but as I have frequently written, even with a bet that has a proven edge over substantial testing, the player needs to be prepared to sometimes leave the casino after a loss.

Now I play usually flat staking but do aggressively step parlays when in a winning cycle in order to accentuate  the positives. There is a fine edge to that and I have succeeded at times to draw disaster out of the jaws of success by pressing too hard too soon. I see it as a journey and my frequent visits are often with very low RB, in order to test a theory of 'traction'/ 'engagement'.

For example I recently achieved a 50 unit to 413 unit completion in 27 spins ( 30 minutes). That day the session unfolded as an A type, and my behaviour was impeccable. At other times though I have made poor choices in aggressive parlay timing and psychologically have not been in the zone for success. This research and learning continues and as I see with colleagues the slippery pole can be there much of the time, despite 'knowledge'.

I am just being candid. Progress continues but it is fair to sum it as 5 steps forward 4 steps back often. The retracements are still being studied and the 'correct' rules are still being drafted.

Yes the RB size is critical and resources used must be 'free money'. Again and again we seek to accentuate the opportunities for success with short cycle play and 'dampen'/ mitigate the negative corrective cycles. This is fundamental.

My current view is that an optimum session RB of 500 units should be sufficient for the way I play, with a maximum of say 2000 units in reserve, and a 2500 units in 24 hour delay reserve.

I accept the advice of one of my mentors that it is pointless to go into a casino with insufficient resources. But he was a progression man and played with  5000 to 10,000 unit RB ($25,000- $50,000) or USD/ GBP. He always wanted a flat stake method and would have played with $100 units if it was proven correct. At that time my knowledge was still forming.

Today I would be confident to play in Auckland or Sydney/ Melbourne with $25 units given clear resources at the time and with as I mentioned above,  2500 or 5000 units.  I would not do that in my local casino because here we come to the nub. At that level of play the profit take outs would attract adverse attention.

Yesterday I played in my local casino at the little RNG machine even ( two other players) and turned 40 units to 90 units within 10 spins. it really need not be any more complex than that. One of my earlier traits to unlearn is to leave a pleasant game ( obviously while ahead) instead of enjoying the company and the  atmosphere, so as to not risk experiencing the inevitable corrective cycles.
When the unit values are much higher the choice to leave becomes easier because the real money value (not the chip number) over rides the poorer choice to stay on. The freedom to up and go at will is the premium value of roulette, as I watch the poker players in the tournament at the other end of the great hall locked into their games.

So, in summary, in short bursts, and with successfully applied specialised knowledge, roulette can be a profitable travelling game, but there are huge exposures to various risks at all levels, and the player will have to train and train and train to become adept.

I have stated elsewhere it should be possible to achieve average compounding +5% return on RB per day of play but house limits and human frailties will erode that efficiency, still enabling a lot of fun and a pleasant lifestyle given a real bank of say 5000 x $5 being $25,000 free money.

I hope to test exactly that formula within the next couple of years once my other responsibilities and contracts can be delegated or completed. But it is limited to a certain practical level and self assessment and self management, or better still, a playing partner and trusted companion needs constant vigilance.

So what is the alternative or parallel investment.

I am not interested in other casino activities unless a small proportion of roulette profit goes into a jackpot slot. I have won many jackpots this way and consider myself 'lucky'. That helps also. But that is still speculative.

Specialised knowledge in the financial markets accessing smart use of leveraged funds is really the very best approach but is not usually known or understood by casino players. In that field a 3-5 year plan really sorts your priorities.

It makes the stressing on the casino floor rather pointless, but nevertheless can open the door to access of a small portion of income to be used for casino activity. That to me is the best investment option. You pay proven top professionals to deal with the variables and stand aside, in order to plan ahead. However you manage risk ( variance) in all its forms.

So to return to Sputnik's great question - if you had the money ( well in excess of $25,000) - then roulette makes a great mobile cash machine for world cities, for fun, travel and gifts - but not for bigger, more powerful and better goals that can really assist society where multiple millions of dollars are needed to make a difference for the common good.

This is a subjective note and others may well disagree, or not understand. This is not the context for me to go into details on the hidden financial models and opportunities that exist in our present society.

However I have chosen to prioritise other investments ahead of roulette for the reasons stated above.

As always, it takes money to make money, but specialised knowledge has massive value whether in roulette, baccarat, poker or the financial markets. It is knowing how to access this, and when and where to apply this and to make good strategic choices in accordance with a carefully researched plan, that will bring success and happiness.

Good questions deserve full answers.






Carlitos

.... at the end of the day when looking at it, its all an roulette or casino game..... with some investments or businesses having less or more odds but still they have to make their decisions on how to invest, make business decisions, which strategy to use etc....

Spreading your investment is not an bad idea to start with, little bit here, there, roulette etc...


Carlitos  8)

RouletteKEY

Roulette also offers alot in the way of compounding as Richard touched on.

Not many places where you can turn money this fast

On an automatic wheel we get 55-65 spins per hour and a live wheel anywhere from 28-70

Based on the Rule of 72 it doesn't take too many modest sessions at an overall small % gain to make it work.  Obviously any losses along the way drag out the process...which is where proper bankroll and money management come into play.

10 hourly sessions making only 7% +/- and I have doubled my bank.  With proper bankroll and play 7% is not unachievable on a very regular basis.  Lots of spins...faster than the track or other sports, requires less capital than arbitrage by a ton and with 35:1 payouts makes recovery much easier than the basically EC style games.

That's my abbreviated take

Bayes

I would never think of playing roulette or any casino game as an investment, more like a job. It's not a passive income like stocks & shares or some other financial vehicle, where you just deposit 50k  then wait years for the positive expectation to materialize, unless you're buying shares in a casino.  :D

I agree with RouletteKEY, one advantage of casino games in general is the fast turnover and relatively small bankroll required. You don't need thousands, and I'm not sure how JP came up with those figures, doesn't it depend on what your financial targets are?

Although I don't think the house edge is the major factor in why most players lose, it certainly is important to pick games with as low HE as possible, preferably less than 1.5% (bacc, craps, and roulette EC with la partage/en prison). That rules out mug bets like the Tie.

The advantage of sports betting is that the odds aren't fixed, but then, you need a bigger bank and more patience because betting opportunities are fewer.

Sputnik

QuoteYou don't need thousands, and I'm not sure how JP came up with those figures, doesn't it depend on what your financial targets are?

We talk about going full proffesional and gamling for a living.

Every 4 week you have to pay bills, rent and food.
For example, rent 500 Euro, food 600 Euro, bills 300 Euro - that is a total of 1.4K

I say you need 1 year of income to make 1 year of income
It will also come 4 weeks when nothing works and loses chop and you still have to pay 1.4K - so psychological war is not easy going pro.

Money management is the easy part and the psychological war is worse - i read that many fails because of the psychological aspect and not the game it self.

Cheers

Sputnik


ND i don't want to make this topic about me - but i took John Patrick's advise working part time and gamble part time.
That way i can feel the  psychological war and see if i can handle it.


NathanDetroit

Sputnik,

I got your point. I took care of that post to avoid any misunderstanding.


HAPPY WINNINGS.


ND

The Crow

I have the money. I choose to invest in roulette because I make a living doing so, full time pro.

I was playing at the Aria in Vegas recently. I was amazed at all of the roulette players giving away their hard earned money. I sat at each roulette table playing 4 to 8 spins max, walking away in profit except for one session -450.00, a total of 4,000.00 dollars and some change.

That's why I would pick roulette as an investment. As to how to make a living playing roulette, well, that's a different story.

The Crow

greenguy

I too have the money; in fact having the money is why I decided not to gamble professionally.

I choose to play roulette for entertainment and because I'm very good at it. So I get entertained and usually walk away with some extra money in my pocket to spend on the things I truly enjoy.

There is a saying that should be everybody's rule number 1, 'never bet with scared money'. If you adhere to that rule you will enjoy your time at the tables and not worry about the rest.

Drazen

Bayes said it good. Investing into something sounds like you don't have too much work to do, but if you are investing into "your" business then it gets a different perspective :)

I personaly found sports betting as easiest and most less time consuming way to invest my money with a decent ROI.

On a week basis I invest about 5-6 K and earn my 1.5 month salary in the office .  I work in croatian national health insurance fund and that is my full time job for now.

Many would here ask what is the reason I am still working with such ratio of income, but don't forget I am 26 and earger to have working experience in a life. Also the job I have now is given to me by credits for working there few years as a student. So I couldnt refuse that job with also well over 20% of unemployment rate behind my back  and say: I am going to live out of sports betting!...

I get enough of knowledge and experience that I am confident that I could live just out of it if really necessary, but I am not thinking about not having a regular job in life..

Sputnik mentioned some psychological pressure. I can't say that I have it much. [smiley]aes/thinking.png[/smiley] I am very confident, practiced and knwoledable enough about it so it actually brings relaxation in a way [smiley]aes/coffee.png[/smiley]

So it can definitely be done that one has a full time job and gambles quite succesfully without stress from it.

You have my proof in the attach. It wasn't the best week I had but those 10% you see, are still good enough to try it for a next week too  :nod:

Cheers


[attach=1]


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