It strikes me variance does not have to be the big bad wolf some people claim it to be!

Who are most likely to be the victims?

*progression players would be at the top of my list..... One bad run increasing your bets and it's likely to be 'goodnight Vienna'.

*Mechanical system players..... The player who sticks to playing his system despite the fact it's plainly not performing on the day.

*The underfunded gambler...... This is the guy who thinks he can turn 50 euros into 500 euros with just 100 chips    (we all make mistakes)

All the above can be corrected.

We don't need to bet every spin.

We can have several methods of play which are interchangeable.

We can be properly funded for our sessions and set workable targets.

So variance does not have to be the bogeyman. (That's the house edges job  )

cheers

Quote from: Bally6354 on December 14, 2012, 10:51:55 PM

Who are most likely to be the victims?

Th victims of variance is anybody who plays close
to 50% or lower. A card counter has an edge of 2-3%
and they have devastating variance. Even the casino is
a victim of variance. They often have months and even
entire quarters where they lose money. Their edge
just isn't high enough to escape occasional negative
variance. The math says its possible for a poker player
to never have a winning session for his entire career!

The only way to escape it is to have a bet selection so
good that you have at least a 20%+ edge over the casino.
And how many people can claim that.

Variance is the biggest killer, even more responsible for losses at last than house edge. If there is no variance in a session, nobody will lose. Variance strikes those with flat bet and those using progression alike and momentarily can defeat anything.

Quote from: KingsRoulette on December 15, 2012, 04:21:00 AM
Variance is the biggest killer, even more responsible for losses at last than house edge. If there is no variance in a session, nobody will lose. Variance strikes those with flat bet and those using progression alike and momentarily can defeat anything.

That is very true. There are Random Generators with no zero, thus no house edge on Ec bets.
Also true that Variance or fluctuation is unavoidable no matter what the bet selection is. Despite i believe some bet selections have lower variance than others.
What is not so often referred is that a symmetrical system as the roulette produces outcomes that have a statistical propensity, and this is unquestionable phenomenon in the real world. No confusion with the wheel has no memory, or the maths says that everything is possible, that is basic maths, not Maths.
It is a false inference, because it does not take into account the nature of the system that produces those outcomes. -Statistical propensity is the phenomenon that we Always observe.
Problem is to determine the spread of it. Time. For me, the focus is on working out bet selections that present me with lower fluctuations.
Would like to add up that expectation and probability are two distinct things.

Quote from: spike on December 14, 2012, 11:27:38 PM
The math says its possible for a poker player
to never have a winning session for his entire career!

The only way to escape it is to have a bet selection so
good that you have at least a 20%+ edge over the casino.
And how many people can claim that.

It depends on the length of the poker player career.

The variance can also produce an incredible win.  Had once   12 number 3 in a session of M7. 20% of the outcome were number 3.

Variance is less effective when you play H.A.R because you are not staying there long enough to be hurt. That's why a progression such as the one I use with PB will be more effective.

Everybody talks about VARIANCE of the game. What they don't talk about is VARIANCE in our money managment, that's how you negate the effect of variance in the game. You learn the common win loss pattern of your given method. Then stake to take advantage of this. You don't mechanically stick to the same staking plan.

Especially if you are betting against small odds. With odds of 7/1 you don't bet on auto-pilot nada. That's not going to get you very far in the longterm. With odds of 242/1. You can  bet MORE rigidly. Because H.A.R will take care of business and give you a definitive edge.

Landing dead on top of a losss at odds of 242/1 playing H.A.R is very hard to do. Landing dead on top of a loss at odds of 7/1 isn't. You bring in smart MM and on the spot decision making to garner the edge that secures a longterm overall profit.

Everything comes down to your BR and your given risk for a method. Many players want something without risking anything. It doesn't work like that. I have to laugh out loud when I read of players willing to let their bankrolls drawdown by three or four hundred units playing level stakes. Before they can expect recovery and hopeful profit.

Yet these same people will sneer at and criticize anyone using a martingale that might risk 80 or even 242 units. But is alot mote certain of winning. This thinking Makes absolutely no sense at all. Risk is RISK. You only need to find out through plenty of testing how justified that risk is.

Quote from: JohnLegend on December 15, 2012, 03:30:32 PM
Variance is less effective when you play H.A.R because you are not staying there long enough to be hurt.

You know, when you make comments like this that are
just totally wrong, you have the potential for hurting
people who play for real money and might believe you
know what you're talking about.

Variance plays NO favorites with anybody. It has nothing
to do with how much you bet or how long you play. You
can bet once every two days and variance will kill you
sometimes. Variance isn't an idea, it isn't a myth, it isn't
something you fool by being clever. Any real player that
says he isn't affected by variance is a liar, plain and simple.

Variance means your edge isn't high enough for you
to avoid inevitable losing streaks. The BJ counter who has
a 2% edge over the casino, and plays full time, can expect
a profit at years end. But in that year of playing, he can also
expect losing streaks that last for weeks, sometimes months.
He can lose half his bankroll. And he has the edge!

Now imagine some poor guy who has a system that depends
on progressions and doesn't even have the edge. He can expect
devastating negative variance that might wipe out his whole
BR. It doesn't matter if he sits and grind for hours, or plays hit
and run. Variance plays no favorites.

Saying you're not affected because you 'don't stay there long enough
to be hurt' is the talk of somebody who's never seen real casino play
in his life.

JL

QuoteLanding dead on top of a losss at odds of 242/1 playing H.A.R is very hard to do.

Please explain how you come up with 242 / 1 odds with your version of hit and run?

THIS IS YOUR CHANCE TO PROVE EVERYTHING.

Please don't pass this up. I'm convinced that it's only 7.4 to 1.

Quote from: Gizmotron on December 15, 2012, 07:38:50 PM
JL
Please explain how you come up with 242 / 1 odds with your version of hit and run?

THIS IS YOUR CHANCE TO PROVE EVERYTHING.

Please don't pass this up. I'm convinced that it's only 7.4 to 1.

Giz im not talking about PATTERN BREAKER. I have three main methods I use these days. The one I speak of isn't known to many on this forum yet. Its called 7 ON 1. It has odds of 242/1

Sounds expensive and its for people who have a decent sized BR. But its potential?? that's something else.

Quote from: spike on December 15, 2012, 07:24:31 PM
You know, when you make comments like this that are
just totally wrong, you have the potential for hurting
people who play for real money and might believe you
know what you're talking about.

Variance plays NO favorites with anybody. It has nothing
to do with how much you bet or how long you play. You
can bet once every two days and variance will kill you
sometimes. Variance isn't an idea, it isn't a myth, it isn't
something you fool by being clever. Any real player that
says he isn't affected by variance is a liar, plain and simple.

Variance means your edge isn't high enough for you
to avoid inevitable losing streaks. The BJ counter who has
a 2% edge over the casino, and plays full time, can expect
a profit at years end. But in that year of playing, he can also
expect losing streaks that last for weeks, sometimes months.
He can lose half his bankroll. And he has the edge!

Now imagine some poor guy who has a system that depends
on progressions and doesn't even have the edge. He can expect
devastating negative variance that might wipe out his whole
BR. It doesn't matter if he sits and grind for hours, or plays hit
and run. Variance plays no favorites.

Saying you're not affected because you 'don't stay there long enough
to be hurt' is the talk of somebody who's never seen real casino play
in his life.

Spike we have to agree to dis-agree. You have far too much reverence and respect for random. I have enough. But if you have too much you will never beat this game. Your mind will be locked into the theories that say NO IT CANNOT BE BEATEN LONGTERM.

I have been playing this game for nearly 20 years. I have seen it all, if I say something works for me IT WORKS. End of story. You can make of it what you like. But don't try to tell me I don't know what im talking about. You have never given a working model to this forum for anyone to test and fail. Until you do, you are simply offering theories of no real substance.

Its your take on random and its behaviour. But its not set in rock. And it doesn't mean everyone else will fail if they don't hang on your every word. This fact you must absorb. The edge is created from H.A.R and MM. With a low buy in method like PATTERN BREAKER.

With another method that has a very powerful strikerate. The edge is already there. All you do is apply H.A,R to avoid travelling towards a loss. And your winning potential can be incredible. This talk of edge, house edge puts unecessary restraint and fear in peoples minds, Its overrated. If your method works, it works. No house edge or negative expectancy is going to change that.

Quote from: JohnLegend on December 15, 2012, 08:59:47 PM
This talk of edge, house edge puts unecessary restraint and fear in peoples minds, Its overrated. If your method works, it works. No house edge or negative expectancy is going to change that.

Yeah, the experts are dopes, what do they know. Just
wait till July and you'll show em, you'll show em all. You'll
turn the gambling world on its ear, that's what you'll do.
In July. Or August at the latest. Maybe mid September,
but the point is, the math heads will be calling you sir,
and the casinos will be your servants.

In July. Or maybe a little later.........

Quote from: spike on December 15, 2012, 09:45:39 PM
Yeah, the experts are dopes, what do they know. Just
wait till July and you'll show em, you'll show em all. You'll
turn the gambling world on its ear, that's what you'll do.
In July. Or August at the latest. Maybe mid September,
but the point is, the math heads will be calling you sir,
and the casinos will be your servants.

In July. Or maybe a little later.........

Its ongoing. July is the point most people realize I am for real. The penny drops for all when PADDYPOWER close me down. When they realize if they don't, they will lose a fortune. Maybe, just maybe even a few of the more stubborn champions of math tells all about random school. Will realize at that point.

Its not ALL SET IN STONE. That's the reason I do this. And no other reason.

Quote from: JohnLegend on December 15, 2012, 09:52:17 PM

Its not ALL SET IN STONE.

Why, it could be a year before all those math degree
guys are set straight by you. Maybe even 2 years.
The Zone, that was just a bad deal, but you've got
the bull by the horns now. I can see it, Man of the
Year on the cover of Time magazine.

Don't you see that too, in your more lucid moments?
You still have lucid moments, don't you? But really,
how would you know. Forget I asked...

Quote from: spike on December 15, 2012, 10:17:32 PM
Why, it could be a year before all those math degree
guys are set straight by you. Maybe even 2 years.
The Zone, that was just a bad deal, but you've got
the bull by the horns now. I can see it, Man of the
Year on the cover of Time magazine.

Don't you see that too, in your more lucid moments?
You still have lucid moments, don't you? But really,
how would you know. Forget I asked...

The ZONE is no bad deal. Bull by the horns? You must be an American. Im not after fame and glory. No one will ever know me. This isn't going to change anything outside of these forums. All its going to prove is IT CAN BE DONE.

I still won't be able mold any individual for success. They either have what it takes or they don't. That will never change.

Quote from: JohnLegend on December 15, 2012, 03:30:32 PM
Variance is less effective when you play H.A.R because you are not staying there long enough to be hurt. That's why a progression such as the one I use with PB will be more effective.

Everybody talks about VARIANCE of the game. What they don't talk about is VARIANCE in our money managment, that's how you negate the effect of variance in the game. You learn the common win loss pattern of your given method. Then stake to take advantage of this. You don't mechanically stick to the same staking plan.

Especially if you are betting against small odds. With odds of 7/1 you don't bet on auto-pilot nada. That's not going to get you very far in the longterm. With odds of 242/1. You can  bet MORE rigidly. Because H.A.R will take care of business and give you a definitive edge.

Landing dead on top of a losss at odds of 242/1 playing H.A.R is very hard to do. Landing dead on top of a loss at odds of 7/1 isn't. You bring in smart MM and on the spot decision making to garner the edge that secures a longterm overall profit.

Everything comes down to your BR and your given risk for a method. Many players want something without risking anything. It doesn't work like that. I have to laugh out loud when I read of players willing to let their bankrolls drawdown by three or four hundred units playing level stakes. Before they can expect recovery and hopeful profit.

Yet these same people will sneer at and criticize anyone using a martingale that might risk 80 or even 242 units. But is alot mote certain of winning. This thinking Makes absolutely no sense at all. Risk is RISK. You only need to find out through plenty of testing how justified that risk is.

All of the above is, in my opinion,  absolutely ridiculous, even more coming from someone that plays for 20 years.


-Variance is less effective when you play H.A.R because you are not staying there long enough to be hurt. That's why a progression such as the one I use with PB will be more effective. Any verifiable data to backup this claim? Fluctuation can be beat with what? Please tell me and proof it, otherwise is more empty talk.

Everybody talks about VARIANCE of the game. What they don't talk about is VARIANCE in our money managment, that's how you negate the effect of variance in the game. You learn the common win loss pattern of your given method. Then stake to take advantage of this. You don't mechanically stick to the same staking plan. This is what you do with martingale? Can you be more explicit and specific on this? Learn the "common" win loss pattern? OMG


Seriously?
Sometimes i think you make this posts to make fun of us. We were trying to discuss something here, please make a valid contribution, or just read. At least backup your statements. Express your point of view but have some acceptable information that may help you stand p for your opinion. No more empty claims please, no more waste of time and attention for the members.
In case you did not notice yet, this low quality posts downgrade the overall forum. Any random member performing HAR on the forum posts can bump into some of this due to mere fluctuation or just because your rigging it.
If you want to be respected as a player or to see your opinions respected, humble up, learn from others, discuss and evolve in an healthy manner. And again, please, when you post make sure you did your homework and so you can present arguments to support your opinions.
Take Care.